Mucho Macho Bets, Southern Wild in third showdown

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Southern Wild and Mucho Macho Bets finished noses apart when third and fifth in a blanket show photo at Keeneland on April 27. But they seem unlikely to draw an equal share of the betting when they return Thursday in the sixth race at Churchill Downs, a $51,000, first-level allowance at a mile on turf.

Southern Wild, owned by Ashbrook Farm and favored at 3-1 on the morning line, seems likely to go off at a shorter price than 4-1 shot Mucho Macho Bets. That seems largely due to the higher-profile connections of Southern Wild, trainer Rusty Arnold and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., compared to trainer Lori Hendrickson and jockey Sophie Doyle with Mucho Macho Bets.

The two have traded decisions, with Mucho Macho Bets beating Southern Wild in a maiden race by 1 1/4 lengths at Churchill Downs last year before Southern Wild outfinished him when both were running for minor awards in their latest at Keeneland.

In contrast to their race at Keeneland on April 27, when Mucho Macho Bets was drawn outside and Southern Wild inside, the post positions are reversed Thursday. Mucho Macho Bets drew the rail, and Southern Wild landed in post 9 in the 10-horse field, which also has Paden entered for the main track only in post 11.

Zambian – who checked in a half-length in front of Southern Wild when they were second and third in a Churchill Downs allowance Nov. 27 – also is a threat if fit for his first start in nearly six months.

Key Contenders

Mucho Macho Bets, by Macho Uno

Last 3 Beyers: 81-69-84

◗ Likely would have finished closer than fifth had he not been as wide at Keeneland on April 27, covering 35 more feet than third-place Southern Wild, according to Trakus data.

Zambian, by Smart Strike

Last 3 Beyers: 84-81-84

◗ Out of action for 179 days, he returns for trainer Darrin Miller, who, per DRF’s Formulator database, is 3 for 17 (18 percent winners) with turf horses returning following layoffs of 120 days or longer over the past five years. Only one other horse hit the board among the sample, however.

Southern Wild, by Lemon Drop Kid

Last 3 Beyers: 82-79-83

◗ Was able to save ground for much of his last race at Keeneland, though he seemed intimidated in tight quarters in early stretch and finished well once clear of traffic.