Mr. Z far from cinch in Indiana Derby

Mr. Z had a cozy outside draw and went off at odds of nearly 7-1 when he dropped in class from the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and won the $500,000 Ohio Derby on June 20. On Saturday at Indiana Grand, Mr. Z, from a handicapping standpoint, has lost his appeal.

He breaks from post 1, a tricky spot for any horse, much less one with in-race quirks, and is the 2-1 morning-line favorite. Not many folks were looking for a Mr. Z win in Ohio; too many will be expecting one in Indiana.

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Mr. Z is one of eight 3-year-olds in the 1 1/16-mile dirt race, a Grade 2 with a $500,000 purse moved up on the calendar this year from October.

Also entered were two more out of the Ohio Derby: Divining Rod, who ran well under difficult circumstances to finish a close third, and Far Right, a never-involved sixth. Island Town and Tiz Shea D are the lesser-raced horses with a chance to move forward. Bold Conquest flopped last out in the Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill, a race Island Town won, but has older competitive form. Alabaster and Deliverance Day are longshots.

The Indiana Derby is race 9 (post time 9:42 p.m. Eastern) on a 10-race, six-stakes card (first post 6:05) that might be the best ever assembled at Indiana Grand. The Grade 2, $200,000 Indiana Oaks is deep and contentious, and both $100,000 grass races early on the program have appeal. It will be warm and humid, with the Saturday high forecast at 90 degrees.

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KEY CONTENDERS

Island Town (Last 3 Beyers: 88-86-79)

◗ He was outrun in his career debut last year and his 3-year-old debut this season but has three wins and a second in his other three starts. That’s a familiar pattern from trainer Ian Wilkes, who learned patient, incremental development under trainer Carl Nafzger.

◗ Wound up on the lead in the Matt Winn by default when no other speed showed. He benefitted from a slow pace, coming back to beat the heavily favored Fame and Power after being headed in upper stretch, but that’s not Island Town’s preferred style.

“I don’t think that’s his forte at all, being on the lead,” said Wilkes. “I’m actually quite enthused with him off that performance.”

◗ He has a robust workout pattern, breezing four times since the June 13 Matt Winn.

“I’m happy with the way he’s come along,” Wilkes said. “The timing has been perfect.”

Divining Rod (Last 3 Beyers: 97-90-98)

◗ Third by a nose and a head in Mr. Z’s Ohio Derby but ran just as well as the winner. Made an early move on the backstretch, accelerating and diving to the inside, then racing head and head with Mr. Z for the final half-mile.

“I was kind of expecting to have him make a later move,” said trainer Arnaud Delacour. “Maybe it was too much of a run for him.”

◗ Delacour hopes for a covered-up stalking journey like the one that won Divining Rod the Lexington Stakes – and there’s a decent chance that Divining Rod falls into that trip.

◗ He wore front bandages last out because he ran down in the deep slop of the Preakness.

◗ Caught unexpected company in his recent Fair Hill bullet five-furlong drill, which went in a faster time than planned. “He worked fast, but he came out of it great,” Delacour said.

Mr. Z (Last 3 Beyers: 97-76-82)

◗ Already has made 15 starts, including seven as a 3-year-old, but showed no sign of weariness bouncing back to his best form in Ohio.

◗ Raced professionally enough last time but has lugged out in several races and might not enjoy being trapped inside. Likely to show gate speed, but Tiz Shea D might be lapped on him from the start.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is 1-2-0 with 21 starters with a $0.31 return on investment in the last five years in 3-year-old graded stakes with dirt horses coming off a win.