Mott finds soft spot for War Dancer in President's Cup

The 4-1 third choice on the Parx Racing morning line for the $200,000 Pennsylvania Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association President’s Cup on Saturday is a horse named Furyofthehorsemen. Granted, Furyofthehorsemen has won two races in a row, but he never has contested a stakes, needed 11 tries to clear his first allowance condition, and has a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 89.

Which tells you all you need to know about the President’s Cup: It is a very soft spot for a $200,000 race.

It’s easy, then, to understand why trainer Bill Mott scratched War Dancer from the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch last weekend at Saratoga in favor of a trip to Pennsylvania. One doesn’t ever want to make gross assumptions in racing, but really, if War Dancer shows up and makes the course, he is very unlikely to finish any worse than second Saturday. And if things go as they look on paper, he is easily the most likely winner of the President’s Cup, a nine-furlong grass race.

War Dancer is 6-5 on the morning line and Roman Approval a close second choice at 8-5, and in a vacuum, there might not be much separating the pair. But considering recent circumstances, it’s War Dancer who appears to hold an edge.

The local forecast calls for a slight chance of rain Friday and Saturday, but the race most likely will be contested on firm turf. The race drew just seven entrants, including Warrioroftheroses, who will run only if the race is rained onto dirt.

President’s Cup, Race 10

KEY CONTENDERS

War Dancer, by War Front

Last 3 Beyers: 98-86-92

◗ Probably doesn’t love soft ground and ran well enough to finish third when last seen July 31 over a yielding Monmouth course behind two horses – Blacktype and Kharafa – who are far better than any of his rivals Saturday, save Roman Approval.

◗ At 6, he appears to have lost a step from his best 2015 form, but his synthetic-surface try two starts back is forgivable, and he won over this nine-furlong trip in allowance competition three races ago.

◗ Mott during his career has gone 4-1-2 from 12 turf-stakes starters at Parx. The strong strike rate has produced just a $1.25 return on investment, and a win from War Dancer won’t greatly boost that number.

Roman Approval, by Roman Ruler

Last 3 Beyers: 84-96-96

◗ Tough-luck 5-year-old hasn’t won since November. Had an especially unfortunate trip last out in the Sword Dancer when Flintshire’s pacemaker, coming off the rail to allow his stablemate through, gave Roman Approval a mighty thump.

◗ Rates below War Dancer because his main rival has gotten a nice rest into this race, while Roman Approval ran just two weeks ago and is making his third start in about a month.