Monomoy Girl races in Ashland Stakes, thinks Kentucky Oaks

Monomoy Girl auditions for the favorite’s role in the Kentucky Oaks by racing in the Grade 1, $500,000 Ashland Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland.

The race comes on an afternoon when the favorite for the Kentucky Oaks could be decided between her and Midnight Bisou in stakes races a couple thousand miles apart. Midnight Bisou races in the Santa Anita Oaks a couple hours after the Ashland.

An eye-catching winner of the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds on Feb. 17 in her seasonal debut, Monomoy Girl faces only six rivals in the Ashland in part due to her imposing presence. She has won four of five starts, and she posted Beyer Speed Figures ranging from 88 to 91 in her three starts on dirt, numbers that rank her among the fastest in the 3-year-old filly division.

However, she is untested in one key area coming into Saturday’s race: running on a wet main track. With rain and snow forecast for central Kentucky from Friday night into Saturday, an off track is a distinct possibility.

“I’d rather race on a fast track, but I don’t feel like she won’t handle it,” said trainer Brad Cox. “I’m not really concerned with it.”

A wet track would seemingly improve the chances of Eskimo Kisses and C. S. Incharge, both of whom splashed their way to a victory in the slop earlier this year.

Eskimo Kisses, the 2-1 second choice on the morning line behind Monomoy Girl, the 4-5 favorite, romped by 11 1/2 lengths in an allowance over an off track Feb. 22 at Oaklawn. She then returned with a second in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks two weeks ago over a fast surface March 24.

Prices are offered on most of the other entrants: Patrona Margarita, 15-1 on the morning line; C.S. Incharge, 10-1; Andina Del Sur, 6-1; Ipanema Beach, 20-1; Tyfosha, 15-1.

The Ashland, at 1 1/16 miles, begins and ends at what is typically the sixteenth-pole for races at Keeneland. It offers 170 qualifying points toward the May 4 Kentucky Oaks, awarding 100 to first, 40 to second, 20 to third and 10 to fourth.

One of five graded stakes races Saturday at Keeneland, the Ashland is set for 5:45 p.m. Eastern.

KEY CONTENDERS

Monomoy Girl, by Tapizar
Last 3 Beyers: 91-91-88

◗ Typically a filly that races on or near the lead, she altered tactics in winning the Rachel Alexandra as a result of a tardy start and outside post. Now drawn inside, she seems more likely to revert to an up-close style, provided she does not break slowly again.

Eskimo Kisses, by To Honor and Serve
Last 3 Beyers: 87-92-74

◗ Florent Geroux was up for a runner-up finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks, but he is committed to ride favored Monomoy Girl, and the mount goes to Corey Lanerie. Lanerie has won this race three times, including the past two years with Weep No More in 2016 and Sailor’s Valentine in 2017.

Patrona Margarita, by Special Rate
Last 3 Beyers: 79-69-63

◗ She and Monomoy Girl are the only graded winners on dirt in the field, though her graded victory came in a slow Pocahontas last September. She raced evenly to be a non-threatening fourth in the Rachel Alexandra, and could move forward in her second start of the year.