Monday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Stonewall Star set for better third off layoff

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:26 p.m. (ET)

One of the big questions to answer in handicapping this optional claimer is how to handle Tough Street (#2) as she returns from a brief layoff. There was a time not so long ago when she would have been the clear favorite against a group like this. However, her current form invites some doubt. Perhaps she just really cannot handle the two-turn 9-furlong trips she attempted in her last couple of starts. While turning back should suit her, she hasn't gone as short as 7 furlongs since breaking her maiden in a $25k maiden claimer over a year ago. It’s a good sign that there’s no drop in class, but I would want a more generous price than you’re likely to get with these connections.

Another wild card is Towhead (#8), as she returns from a layoff and drops out of a series of graded stakes races. She was obviously no match for the likes of Wet Paint, Taxed, and Hoosier Philly last year. Yet she didn’t even run that badly in the Honeybee, and was somewhat against the flow in the Fantasy. It’s worth noting that prior to that she had run a career-best 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her only start on Lasix, and she is able to get back on Lasix here. Mike Maker is a 16 for 79 (20%, $2.55 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more on dirt over the past 5 years. The turnback in distance is a question, but she appears to fit with this group.

A few runners in this field participated in the Jan. 11 race at this level. Royal Poppy (#5) is probably the filly to beat among that group. She’s just been fairly reliable over the course of her last four starts. She took advantage of a track bias and favorable pace setup when she won three back, but she’s since run two competitive races at this level. She just has to prove she can stretch out an additional furlong.

Desert Dalliance (#7) is a little interesting out of that race, since she was racing out of position through the early stages. She was on the inside for the backstretch run before gradually angling outside on the turn and into the stretch. The rail was not the place to be on that card, so she was mildly against the bias early. She needs to be forward to have her best chance, and perhaps she can attain better position going 7 furlongs.

My top pick is Stonewall Star (#4), who also exits that Jan. 11 affair. Her recent form looks somewhat disappointing at first glance considering how well she did early on. However, she's had some excuses in each of her last two starts. She had a right to need that race off the layoff two back, where she made an early move to lead before tiring. Then last time she was racing over a track that featured a dead rail, and she was forced to stay on the rail for much of her trip after breaking from the inside post. It’s reasonable to expect better this time, and she’s actually run reasonably well going 7 furlongs. Furthermore, Horacio De Paz is 10 for 41 (24%, $3.36 ROI) in a horse’s third start off a 180 to 360 day layoff over the past 5 years.