Monday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Return to turf sprinting can wake up True Charm

Saratoga | Race 1 | Post Time 1:00 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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With the scratch of morning-line favorite Battlement, Miss Kentucky (#4) and Pray for Bourbon (#6) are likely to battle for supremacy in the wagering. The former actually has some turf pedigree, as a daughter of promising turf sire Blame out of a dam that produced two turf winners. She must be respected, especially given the fact that the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead.

I’m a little more skeptical of Pray for Bourbon, even though she’s already proven she handles the turf. She was not facing the strongest field at Monmouth last time, and she was able to work out an absolutely perfect trip, stalking the pace along the rail before angling out in the stretch. She was supposed to win that day and came up short.

I’m trying to beat these two with TRUE CHARM (#3).

I know that this filly’s recent form is awful, but she’s had excuses. She’s just not a horse who handles fast dirt, so you can throw out her last three efforts, and her most recent turf start at a mile was too far for her. Her turf-sprint efforts prior to that are actually fine, and she even run a solid fourth at this level over this turf course last summer after setting a pretty fast pace. I think she’s quick enough to go with, or even outrun, Miss Kentucky in the early going of this race, and she figures to go off at a square price.

I’ll use True Charm with the two aforementioned favorites, as well as First Charmer (#5), who comes off a disappointing effort but had previously run well at this level and deserves another chance.

THE PLAY

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6