Monday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Golden Rocket should be fitter second off layoff
Saratoga | Race 11 | Post Time 6:17 p.m. (ET)
The penultimate race of this 2024 Saratoga season is one of the most intriguing affairs of the entire meet. There is a pretty solid favorite in Child of the Moon (#11), who made a favorable impression in her U.S. debut for Chad Brown. She had shown some hints of talent overseas, and appeared to take a step forward in her stateside debut last time. That race featured a very slow early pace, and she was closing best of all late to just miss. However, now she’s landing in a deeper field and was done no favors by drawing so far outside. I do prefer her to Brown’s other entrant Venencia (#8), who was plagued by gate issues in both starts for the barn last season. I’m not convinced about her overall talent, and she likely needs a pace collapse to be effective.
There is ample speed in here, as indicated by the fast pace designation on the TimeformUS Pace Projector. That could work against one of several horses trying the turf for the first time. Sugar Hi (#2) has been working very well ahead of her grass debut, including a couple of impressive drills over the Oklahoma turf course. However, she has to prove she can get this added distance in a race featuring other speed. Another first time turfer in a similar situation is Mystifying (#5), but I have a little more faith in her adapting to new tactics. This daughter of Curlin has plenty of Phipps turf pedigree in her female family, and has also worked well on the surface ahead of this start. Shug McGaughey also has strong statistics coming off layoffs in turf routes.
Given all the speed signed on, I’m expecting an honest pace setup for the closers. The late runner who interests me most is Golden Rocket (#4), who makes her second start off a layoff for new trainer Charlton Baker. She’s not a natural turf sprinter, but she actually ran pretty well cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs off the layoff last time in her first start for the new barn. She traveled well into the race and briefly looked like a winner in upper stretch before flattening out late. She should benefit from getting that race under her belt as she now stretches back out to her preferred route distance. She’s drawn well and should work out a ground-saving trip under Jose Lezcano. With two Chad Brown runners and a few appealing surface switchers in the mix, she seems like the kind of horse who could get a little forgotten on the tote board.