Monday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Ancient Brown can improve upon promising debut in her second start
Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 1:56 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up
Ice Princess (#6) is obviously the horse to beat as she drops out of the Grade 1 Frizette. You can’t blame her connections for taking a shot in that prestigious race, but it was nevertheless a tall order for a filly who had merely beaten an overmatched group of turf horses in her debut. She put forth an honest effort, closing willingly to be fourth in a race that didn’t exactly set up for late runners. Her TimeformUS Speed Figures in the mid90s are clearly the best in this field and she still has room to improve in just her third career start. I’m hardly against her, but her merits are fairly obvious.
I’m taking a shot with the second-time starter ANCIENT BROWN (#5). She made a decisive middle move around the far turn in her debut after breaking slowly, and proceeded to draw off with ease in the lane. The problem with that race is that it was objectively slow from a speed figure standpoint. However, a longshot got loose on the front end through moderate early fractions that day, which may have negatively impacted the final time. It was also the first race of the day, and we have routinely seen this Aqueduct main track speed up throughout the afternoon. I think it’s also noteworthy that the runner-up from that race returned to win her next start by 10 lengths with an improved speed figure, suggesting that the race may be better than it appears. Ancient Brown figures to show more speed here and I don’t anticipate her having trouble with the added distance.
I would also include fellow recent maiden winner Myawaya (#3), though I’m a little less convinced that she’ll improve stretching out in distance. She was game to run down New York Supreme to break her maiden last time, and had previously faced a quality rival in stakes winner Critical Value. However, she could have plenty of company on the front end with speeds like Sneaky Surprise and Courageous Girl also signed on.
THE PLAY
Win: 5
Exacta key box: 5 with 3, 4, 6
Trifecta: 5, 6 with 5, 6 with 2, 3, 4