Mohawk: Tuesday 9/26 Analysis
Best Bet: BEACH GODDESS (9th)
Spot Play: YACHT SEELSTER (1st)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2,4/2,3,5/4,5,8/4,7,9/4,9 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 4,7,9/4,9/4,8/2,3,5 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,5/7,8/2/5,9 = $12
MEET STATS: 366 - 1075 / $2,027.20 BEST BETS: 48 - 104 / $167.10
SPOT PLAYS: 35 - 104 / $213.00
Race 1
(2) YACHT SEELSTER - a $44K Forest City sale buy - is related to several decent local competitors and he finds a good spot to kick off his career; top call. (1) BODEGA BAY probably finds his softest spot yet here. He should be heard from. (4) MACHO POLO showed keen late interest last time and he should be a player here if he gets moving earlier. (5) DISMISSAL SLIP is another that is improving who is worth a look here.
Race 2
(5) JIMMY FREIGHT went a big trip to win a Gold event last time and he rates top call here, but note that this is a $16K conditioned race that is a stepping stone to richer upcoming stakes, which makes intent and tactics hard to predict sometimes. (3) SIMPLE KINDA MAN raced well last time, but he also had dead aim on the choice and couldn't get to him late. I'll use him in the Pick 5 on the premise that we really have no way of knowing how this race will play out. (2) BURN OUT HANOVER faces easier here and he must be considered. (6) SHARP ACTION MONEY paced a big mile from the worst post last out. He can close for a share here.
Race 3
(4) P L KNUCKLEHEAD will be tough in here if he can stay trotting this time. (8) LADY GREY takes a massive class plunge and she is sure to get put into this race early, I think. (5) PERFECT MASS comes off an improved effort with the trainer driving now he hands the reins to his main catch driver; using. (6) SHORT TERM MEMORY is another that can win this with the right trip in a race that demands wide Pick 5 coverage.
Race 4
This is a good spot for (4) HOT SPOT HANOVER to get back on track. Expect an aggressive steer from Henry here. (7) SHES LIGHTS OUT had three starts at a higher level now she drops and she looks sharp enough to contend here. (9) BERNADETTE is another that drops who should be heard from here. (1) BAROCKEY is unpredictable most of the time, but she should hit the Super here leaving from the inside.
Race 5
(4) PERFETTO had a perfect tightener for this against older from a tough post and he should be all systems go now. (9) LEVITATION beat the choice here on August 1st and he should be sending hard off the gate here. (5) DRAFT YEAR tries hard every week. He won't be held off much longer. (10) COUSIN RICKARD is worth a look here on connections alone.
Race 6
(4) CARDIFF was used hard last time vs. much better and she didn't stop badly. If the time off doesn't hurt her too much, she should beat these. (8) PRECISION HANOVER is vastly improved and the one to beat here. (2) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP - a $19K Harrisburg buy - looks prepped enough to take a share here. (5) FIRESTORM comes off a sharp win but she has missed almost a month; mixed signals here.
Race 7
(3) WILL TAKE CHARGE steps up but he is sharp enough to take another. (2) DEEP IMPACT was coming late last time and he should be the main threat to the choice. (5) ETRUSCAN HANOVER is no doubt the fastest horse in here, but he is so unreliable to stay on stride that he is hard to love in any spot. (8) ITS HUW YOU KNOW drops in class coming off a break and he is worth a look for the Tri and Super.
Race 8
(7) CHOCOLATE SWIRL gets Waples here and he often drives very aggressively from outer posts. I'll give him the nod here. (8) WIND BLAST was too far back last time, but he will no doubt benefit from that race and he can take this if he beats a couple of these off the gate. (3) LEVIS DAY beat similar two back and he should get good position early; using. (6) THE DOWNTOWN BUS disappointed as choice last time. I'll tab him for a smaller share here.
Race 9
(2) BEACH GODDESS is just too sharp for me to go against in this spot and Saftic drives her with great confidence. (7) MACH THE CUT can go better here if there is a decent flow; exacta factor. (6) PARTY BEACH adds Lasix off a good qualifier. She should share here. (3) MACHNHOPE faces tougher here, and she will likely be heavily bet underneath. I'll try to beat her out of the exacta.
Race 10
(5) READY ANY TIME keeps Roy and gets a much better post here; top call. (9) SKY LAV had plenty of trot late in her first try with Lasix. She would be no surprise here. (8) KEN KAN WIN is in decent enough form to take a share. (6) HONOR ABOVE ALL and (3) LEXUS ROCKY are best used underneath and both could make the Super and/or High-5 ticket.
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