Mohawk: Tuesday 9/19 Analysis
Best Bet: ROLLAROUNDTHEWORLD (9th)
Spot Play: CAPTAIN DRAGON (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4.7/1,4,7,8/3,5/4,5/1,2,8 = $19.20
EARLY PICK 4: 4,5/1,2,8/3,4,10/1,7 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 1,7/5,8,9/7/1,3,5,6,7,8 = $36
MEET STATS: 349 - 1023 / $1,917.60 BEST BETS: 46 - 100 / $159.00
SPOT PLAYS: 34 - 99 / $196.70
Race 1
(7) ODYSSEUS picks up Filion here after getting hung the mile in a Grassroots race. If he clears early, he could be gone vs. these. (4) STELLENBOSCH should be forwardly-placed here which gives her a decent shot in this field. (5) FADING SHADOW finishes third close to 50% of the time and that's where I'll use her here. (1) SHEER TALENT wheels back quickly again, but she's racing okay and she can close for a piece of this.
Race 2
(8) NORTHERN MAJOR gets right back into action after breaking at the start last Thursday. Moreau must be confident he has him fixed; top call. (7) UPVOTE HANOVER gets Henry back after a solid Grassroots try last time; using. (4) MORE THAN MAJESTIC can be much closer here with a better start; beware. (1) MAJESTIC MARVEL is another that isn't out of this, but he must stay trotting.
Race 3
(3) CAPTAIN DRAGON goes for the potent Moreau/Roy combo here shipping in and he should do well in this spot. (5) THIS IS MY SONG converted off a great trip last time, but with the good late speed he has been producing regularly, he is a threat to double up. (4) ABSOLUTE INTENT is always around at the finish but he is now 0 for 10. He fits here, but I'll play to beat him. (2) MASTER THE VIEW is another with a poor win record who figures to take a smaller share.
Race 4
(4) WIND BLAST had a good debut then missed some time due to sickness. He requalified well enough to suggest he will be a top player in this spot. (5) BIG TALKING MAN comes off a failed first-over bid vs. tougher. He should be a player in here. (1) DURHAM TOWN faces easier and he should be heard from here leaving from the inside. (7) MACHLICIOUS is bred to be better than he has shown so far; toss him on the bottom of Tri and Super bets.
Race 5
(8) WILL TAKE CHARGE was a big chalk a class higher last time, but he blew up before the start. He will get bet heavily again here and can beat these if he doesn't run, but I'll use others on multi-race tickets this time. (2) MIGHTY NICKY woke up with a better effort when dropped to this class last time. He is capable vs. these; using. (1) DEEP IMPACT takes a big drop here and he's hard to leave out. (6) SKY LAV adds Lasix after failing as chalk twice straight. He can make the ticket.
Race 6
(4) WILD WEST was too far back and mired in traffic last time, but he still finished well. He should get away a bit better here and that can make all the difference. (3) LEVIS DAY was sharp taking a new life's mark last week. He is the main threat. (10) SHARP ACTION MONEY was a strong 2nd in his only try in a similar class here and he's dangerous here despite his post. (6) BO MACH is another that faces easier who is worthy of consideration here.
Race 7
(7) ROSE RUN SPEEDSTER got up right on the line last time, but he gets a better post here and he can double vs. these. (1) CRYSTAL GUMDROP has been racing well for several weeks and she should be able to work out a decent trip here; using. (5) CHARMBO CHROME has turned things around in his past two starts and he is the one to chase down here, but, he will likely find one or both of the two choices too tough. (2) RADICAL ROAD is sharp and he should be good for at least a slice here.
Race 8
(8) ADVERSITY takes a big drop here and Ryan may move earlier in this field; top call. (5) MISTER HERBIE comes off a strong effort and he returns quicker this time. A win here by the veteran millionaire would be no surprise. (9) MEGO MOSS is always in contention at this level and he could provide some Pick 4 value here; using. (10) FREE WILLY HANOVER can close late for a smaller slice leaving from this post.
Race 9
(7) ROLLAROUNDTHEWORLD comes off a strong effort where he kept pacing hard to the wire but was unlucky in the end. He can take his 2nd win here. (1) TUXEDO BAY finished just ahead of the choice and he looks next best here. (8) AMERICAN SPORTSMAN looked dangerous on the far turn last time, but the late pace was too strong for him to close into. He's getting closer. (6) BETTOR JIN can take a smaller share here; note he finished behind all the top three last time.
Race 10
(5) BILLS FELLA was impressive upsetting in the OSS Gold last time. He's a big threat to come right back with another win here. (8) TIGERS WAY was visibly flying home last time, but he ran out of racetrack late. He's a top contender here but he could get overbet due to his final 1/4 time. (7) DREAM OF LUCK comes off a solid first-over effort vs. a sharp winner. He's in the mix here. (3) KAZIMOTO gets a much better post here and he can't be discounted in this competitive finale. (1) MAKASI should work out a decent trip here and take a share.
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