Mohawk: Tuesday 9/12 Analysis

Best Bet: CASIMIR RICHIE P (7th)

Spot Play: SOUTHWIND GRIZZLY (4th)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 1,2,5,10 / 4,6 / 1,3,6 / 8 / 2,4,5,7,8 = $24

EARLY PICK 4: 8 / 2,4,5,7,8 / 1,2 / 6 = $15

LATE PICK 4: 6 /5,6,7 / 4,5,7 / 3,4,8 = $27

MEET STATS: 335 - 979 / $1,843.30 BEST BETS: 43 - 95 / $151.70

SPOT PLAYS: 34 - 94 / $196.70

Race 1

(2) ON FIRST tried to advance uncovered into a 26 4/5 final 1/4 last time which turned out to be mission impossible. He has a much better chance here racing on or near the lead. (5) SKYDECK was a somewhat predictable winner when the trainer handed the lines to a catch-driver last time, but he still paid a big price. I’ll use him again here. (10) TIKI TAKA goes for Moreau/Roy shipping in and he merits a long look despite his post. (1) QUADRANGLE is another that couldn’t keep advancing first up when the pace accelerated. He merits a look.

Race 2

(6) PHANTOM SEELSTER took a life’s mark of 1:52 3/5 last time he raced in Grassroots company. I’ll give him the nod vs. these. (4) WHEN YOU DANCE took a huge shuffle last time then closed well once free; using. (2) NOTABADGAME looks like a speed threat, but he is more likely to take a slice than a win. (7) SUN MATCH is one to look at for the bottom of the Super at a price here.

Race 3

(6) HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS ships in from the B tracks and gets Roy for Moreau, a formula that has worked a few times this year; top call. (3) FLYING ISA N was a sharp winner in his Mohawk debut. Toss him in the Pick 5. (1) AMOREUSE HANOVER has a good shot to trip-out near the front here; don’t dismiss. (4) CABERTOSS is in great form and in with an upset chance.

Race 4

(8) SOUTHWIND GRIZZLY has been facing better regularly and I would expect McNair sends him in this spot. (7) NORTHERN REBEL was no match for a big winner last week, but he is a danger here considering his good form. (3) CHOCOLATE SWIRL is lightly raced, but he is already a Grassroots winner and is worth a look in this spot. (1) ON THE TABLE may not have handled the slop last time. He can share here.

Race 5

(7) MINDTRIP couldn’t match the winner in a 26 4/5 third 1/4 throw-down last time, but that was a good comeback race and he should be tighter for this start. (2) ROLLAROUNDTHEWORLD is coming around quickly and appears to be the main threat to the choice. (5) TIGERS WAY’s final 1/4 in an OSS Gold race jumps out at you, but he is still 1 for 16 and likely to be over bet here. (8) BETTOR JIN steps up, but he improved immediately in the new barn and he isn’t impossible in this spot.

Race 6

(1) MIGHTY NICKY faces much easier here and he could wake up in a big way. (5) HONOR ABOVE ALL also figures on the class drop; using. (2) WALK THE PLANK picks up Henry which probably means and all out speed try here. Put him on your Pick 4 tickets. (3) STREAMSONG should be good for another smaller share.

Race 7

(6) CASIMIR RICHIE P gets Henry back here after blowing up at the start last time. If he behaves, he should take these a long way on the lead. (2) BODEGA BAY is getting closer and perhaps he gets more aggressive early this time. (8) HOWMAC DANCER couldn’t go with an undefeated winner last out, but he should be heard from here. (3) LUKA SHENKO has a great record and is worth a look for the exotics.

Race 8

(5) PRETTY HANDSOME is on a roll since returning from sickness and he’s a good bet to take his third straight win here. (7) ATOMIC SEELSTER gets a notable driver change and he should be the one to catch. (6) WILD WEST exploded off cover to win going away last time; respect his improving form. (9) GOLD RUSH drew off to a big win at huge odds last week, but he had the freshest legs late and is unlikely to encounter the same pace meltdown here; small share predicted.

Race 9

(5) BRINGHOME THEBLUE raced decently last week, which may be an indication he is getting over whatever issues led to him going off form so badly this spring. I’ll take a swing with him. (4) DREAMY FELLA fits here and he picks up McNair; using. (7) BS TYRRIFIC can take a share racing from close range. (8) ROCKABELLA makes his 2nd start off the claim. Look for him to be closing late to make the Tri or Super.

Race 10

(8) TRUE REFLECTION drops and likely pops here. (4) CAYO LOCO also gets class relief and she could topple the choice with the right trip. (3) CRACKLIN ROSE could be a big speed threat in this spot in a race with few apparent leavers. (2) MARVALOUS JET is worth a look coming off a good qualifier. (1) CALL IT COURAGE likely takes a small share off a following trip.