Mohawk: Tuesday 8/22 Analysis
Best Bet: TONY SOPRANO (3rd)
Spot Play: SKY LAV (10th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,7,8/2,4,10/5/3,8,10/2,5 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 3,8,10/2,5/1,2/3,5,9 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 3,5,9/2,4,6/4,5/1,4,8 = $54
MEET STATS: 285 - 822 / $1,600.30 BEST BETS: 35 - 80 / $125.50
SPOT PLAYS: 33 - 79 / $191.30
Race 1
(7) NORTHERN STARLIGHT had no shot last week trying to close into a 27 1/5 final 1/4, but she remains a sharp contender and she should bring a decent price here; top call in the opener. (8) KAMERAN HANOVER finished ahead of the choice last time and his good tactical speed puts him right in the picture here. (1) DREAM MASSIVE is a good one to use underneath as he likely preps here for an OSS race. (3) EURO GAP is interesting here, retaining Henry following a change of racing style win that resulted in a new life's mark.
Race 2
(2) ATLANTA is an obvious pick here, having trotted several seconds faster than his rivals in her most recent race, however, with him having done so off a following trip, I wouldn't take a low price on her. I'll give her a grudging nod. (10) CIAO DOLCE is a $300K purchase and a 1/2-sister to $869K earner Miss Paris and $753K earner Bella Dolce. She is worth a look here in her debut and she should be a square price. (4) GRADABRA exits Grassroots company where she fared OK. She should be competitive here. (1) WISH I WAS THERE seems to have a lot of speed to offer if she can stay flat, but the #1 post could prove troublesome for her.
Race 3
(5) TONY SOPRANO is one of the sharpest horses on the grounds right now and in the best form of his life. I'll stick with him here. (7) CLASSIC VENTURE is another that is in great form that should be considered here. (4) O NARUTAC PERFETTO steps up off a perfect trip win but he should share here. (6) CHARMED LIFE is an obvious threat, but she appears to be a step or two behind the choice at the moment. I will play to beat her in this spot.
Race 4
(8) SNAPPY DRESSER was full of pace late last week, but the top two were too strong. She is in with a good chance here and the outer post should help boost the price. (3) TREASURES PEARL is in top form and she should be a tough foe in here. (10) C MARY could challenge here if she is put into the race, but tactics are hard to predict in a conditioned race. (6) SHEER TALENT regularly shares, has good tactical speed and is a good one to use underneath.
Race 5
(5) ROLLAROUNDTHEWORLD took a mark of 1:50 1/5 when last seen on the track and he has been off since. He seems well-prepped to start back up in a spot where he fits well; top call. (2) PENZANCE HANOVER comes off an impressive win in this class in which he lowered his lifetime-best considerably. He is a serious player here. (1) JAYDENS PLACE is sharp, but faces tougher here; smaller share predicted. (6) ABSOLUTE INTENT is another that can rally for a minor share.
Race 6
(1) HILL YES is obviously the best in here if he can return to his sure-gaited ways here. Condren, who is an expert with young trotters, takes over the reins here. (2) PARKHILL NONSTOP may get a clear lead here, which would make him a threat to go all the way. (7) MYSTICAL MISSION has a good in-the-money record and is worth a look for the exotics coming off the shelf here. (6) NORTHERN MAJOR has developed a decent closing kick and he should come late for a piece of this.
Race 7
(5) JAKE and (3) SEVEN AND SEVEN both competed in the Hambletonian eliminations and are the obvious class of this field. I'll give a slight nod to the former, but use both in Pick 4s. (9) WINTER HARBOR was decent in his return to Mohawk and he is in with an upset chance here. (7) LMC MASS OAK is in solid form, but he will likely find the top two hard to beat; small share predicted for him.
Race 8
(6) TRAFFIC JAM paced a back 1/2 in 53 2/5 last week and he should get some pace to chase here. The only concern is that he could be overbet relative to his actual chances. (4) THORNE SEELSTER set solid splits and almost won in this class two back. She's a big threat here. (2) ALEXA HANOVER who is in solid form and always around the money is another for late Pick 4 consideration. (3) FRANSCHOEK is another that always seems to be in the mix, but she is best used underneath.
Race 9
(5) APRIL ROSE was a crazy overbet last week in a field where she looked fourth-best on paper, and she showed little. She rates highly here on the class drop however and gets my nod. (4) RENEGADE MAGIC also drops and she should be right in the mix if she stays trotting this time. (3) STORMONT KATE got embroiled in a heated duel for the top in the opening 3/8ths of her most recent mile and she did well to stay for 2nd. She is a possible upsetter here. (7) FINISH LINE is likely an early speed threat here and he could better this placing.
Race 10
(4) SKY LAV was very live last week and almost overcame an impossible traffic-filled trip to win, only running out of racetrack late stopping him. I'll give him top billing here with the driver upgrade. (8) MEGO MOSS finished ahead of the choice at huge odds in his first start off the claim and he should be tough again here. (1) HONOR ABOVE ALL drops looking to pop and he should be a factor but he may get over bet. (2) BURNIN MONEY had a tough trip last time and he gets his regular pilot back here. He should make the ticket. (5) WINDSONG MAGIC is on the improve and should make the High 5.
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