Mohawk: Tuesday 8/1 Analysis
Best Bet: HILL YES (5th)
Spot Play: ONLY ONE STAR (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,3,5,6,9/3,4/1,2,4,6/1,3,7/6 = $24
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,7/6/4,5,7/5,10 = $18
LATE PICK 4: 5,10/2,5,7/1,2,9/1,3,7 = $54
MEET STATS: 234 - 702 / $1,324.90 BEST BETS: 29 - 69 / $103.70
SPOT PLAYS: 29 - 69 / $165.70
Race 1
(2) SHORT TERM MEMORY's first start over Mohawk was decent enough to suggest he can improve off it, especially in this field where his rivals are 0 for 74; slight nod. (5) LATE SHIFT looks solid on paper here, but at 0 for 17 so far, what price would you take? (3) BRED FOR GREATNESS drops back to face maidens and he raced well in this class in his debut; using. (9) MORE THAN TALK was bought for $22K at Lexington and he is worth a look here as the entrant with the fewest number of starts in a suspect field.
Race 2
(3) SPORTING CHANCE took a shuffle last time racing against OSS Gold foes but he did have some pace in the lane. He has a good shot here facing maidens. (4) COUTS REPORT was beaten by a sharp rival last time and although the winner was clear, he still paced a good final 1/4. He fits well here. (2) MISSION THREE can close again for a slice. (1) PHIL THE THRILL debuts off some strong qualifiers. He could better this prediction.
Race 3
(4) LEVITATION couldn't keep pace with the winner in his debut, but he can improve here and he is one of many in with a chance in this short field. (2) T BARRR was flying late vs. elders in his debut. He will rightfully take plenty of action here. (1) COUSIN RICKARD should get a decent trip starting from the inside here. (6) WINNING AMERICAN beat the choice last time and he could win this with a trip.
Race 4
(3) WAY BETTOR raced tough last week, but she simply couldn't reach the strong winner late. She should be even sharper here coming back in seven days as opposed to three weeks before her last start. (7) EVERYONES WATCHING was situated behind the choice all the way last time, but she did close some ground in an accelerating final 1/4. She's in with a good shot here. (1) COLUMNIST was 4th in the same race behind the two above, but she should be laying closer to the lead here which gives her a chance. (6) P L JASMINE moves up off a sharp victory and these may not be out of reach for her although it seems at least one of the three above will beat her here.
Race 5
(6) HILL YES trotted a big mile on the rim last week only to be picked off late by a rival that enjoyed cover. He should be tough in here. (3) VESUVIO BI similarly trotted a strong mile first up, but the winner had enjoyed fractions that were too easy and repelled him. He picked up Moiseyev at scratch time. Toss him in exotic bets. (10) ZLATAN is worth a look going first time for Auciello here. (1) SCOTTIES SPIRIT makes her debut for trainer/driver Henriksen following a strong qualifying effort on July 18th; consider.
Race 6
Classy veteran (4) STAR PHOTO had a tightener now moves to the middle of the gate. I'm expecting Drury to be more aggressive here; top call. (5) OVERCOMEBYVICTORY ships in off a couple of sharp miles at the 'B' tracks. She looks sharp and dangerous and driver Henry has been on fire lately. (7) NORTHERN STORMONT will be a threat if he can stay flat this time. (8) SUMMIT CITY TURBO drops to a level where he can close late for a slice.
Race 7
(5) ONLY ONE STAR needed two more strides of real estate last week to get the job done. She is sharp and will likely get a more aggressive steer this time. (10) KENDALL SEELSTER is an obvious contender based on her past two starts vs. the fastest two-year-old filly on the continent. Leaving from post 10 in a $14K conditioned race raises concerns regarding intent, however. (2) MACH AN ANGEL can tag along and stay for a small share leaving from the inside. (9) VILLAGE JAMIE could press forward at the start here with a clean line under her belt. She's worth a look at a price.
Race 8
(7) KAMERAN HANOVER was picked off by one that rode his cover last time. Starting farther out gives him a chance to follow a live helmet which might be all he needs to get the job done this time. (2) HP RUN LIKE MOM brings a few blowout wins with her from Quebec and Roy is likely to try to bottom this field out; beware. (5) PARKHILL NONSTOP is good when he doesn't break, but it's hard to predict when he will stay flat. (8) CARSON HILL steps up off a perfect trip win but he has some upside and he can contend here.
Race 9
(9) LEXUS ROCKY goes for Moreau off the claim here and the pace scenario should work out in his favor here; look for him late. (1) HARPER BLUE CHIP is another closer that should benefit from some early battling here; using. (2) EXQUISITE GLIDE is sharp and dangerous coming off a new life's best last time. (5) CUE HALL is likely to have some early competition for the front here which could soften him up late.
Race 10
(7) WINTER BLAST closed impressively last week in a mile which was a big improvement over his Mohawk debut on July 13th. I'll give him the nod here and he should be a square price. (1) OUREA NOURRIR's final 1/4 from last week sticks out and he retains Roy and moves inside; using. (3) LISVINNIE exits a rapid Georgian Downs mile and he figures here. (2) COOL ROCK needs a trip, but he isn't impossible here. (5) CUNDALINI is win-shy, but he attracted a claim from Budd last week. He can share here.
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