Mohawk: Tuesday 7/4 Analysis
Best Bet: ETRUSCAN HANOVER (7th)
Spot Play: PARKHILL NONSTOP (6th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 4,8/3,4/4,5/2,7/1,2,4 = $9.60
EARLY PICK 4: 2,7/1,2,4/2,5,7/7 = $18
LATE PICK 4: 7/2,3,5/3,4,5,7/2,5,7,10 = $48
MEET STATS: 166 - 503 / $933.30 BEST BETS: 22 - 49 / $82.50
SPOT PLAYS: 23 - 49 / $128.90
Race 1
(4) FONDUE was patiently-driven to a solid win in her Mohawk debut and the daughter of top sire Muscle Hill stands a good chance of staying unbeaten here. The late speed she has shown stacks up well vs. these; top call. (8) LUCYS MAN has done okay in Grassroots company this campaign and he appears to be the only real threat to the choice on paper; using. (3) CAMERON HILL has been facing tougher and hasn't come close to hitting the board yet this year. She could wake up here with a much better try. (1) ALPHA SEELSTER made a menacing move around the final turn last week, only to be repelled late. He should hit the ticket again here if he stays flat.
Race 2
(4) NORTHERN STARLIGHT won in this class last week from a worse post. She should be tough here right back. (3) YO YO MASS was super in winning two back with Henry driving and he returns here. Toss him in your Pick 5s. (5) HILL YES is obviously capable if he stays trotting, but it's tough to predict which Hill Yes will show up tonight. (6) KAMERAN HANOVER dead-heated with the winner last week but was placed for being off stride at the wire. He is worth a look for the bottom of Tri and Super bets here.
Race 3
(5) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP has paced some big miles over this track and he is likely to attract a claim here dropping into this class. Expect an aggressive drive. (4) REMUS BLUE CHIP's only mediocre result in his past five came when he left from the outermost post on the Grand River 1/2-miler. His good early speed and consistency make him a player here. (1) CHIEF TALKALOT hasn't looked the soundest for several starts now he goes for the top trainer and driver. I'll play against here, thinking all his issues didn't get fixed in five days. (3) INTENDED STYLE is usually in contention in this class and he could win this with a trip.
Race 4
(2) LEAN HANOVER qualified fast enough to suggest he will be a contender in this seasonal debut and this isn't the toughest spot for him; slight nod. (7) I JASMIN extended her losing streak to 36 last week, but Roy seems to be figuring her out and she could pop soon. (3) DANCER HALL obviously has the ability to compete with these, but he is tough to back on top with the trainer driving, considering he has 10 lifetime wins and only nine drives in the past 3 1/2 years. (4) MISSION MAN showed some late interest last time and he would be worth a stab if he is big odds again here.
Race 5
(4) ROCK ON LINE exits New York sires stakes company and he has already won in this class recently from a tougher post. He should be right there vs. these. (1) MAROMA BEACH was buried with pace down the lane last week, and he returns to a 7-day cycle here. He should get a more aggressive steer this time. (2) TUXEDO BAY paced his fastest winning mile yet in his June 27th qualifier and he showed some ability last year facing some tough ones. Toss him on multi-race tickets (10) TOXICITY paced to a huge maiden-breaking score last week, but the waters get deeper here and post position does him no favors; minor share predicted.
Race 6
(7) PARKHILL NONSTOP has shown great improvement under trainer Hudon's care. He put up a good fight vs. an unbeaten winner last week. Perhaps tonight is his night. (5) BLOOD MOON threw in a clunker as chalk last week. If he can reproduce his effort from two starts back, he will be much closer here. (2) WINNING LYRIC trotted a decent mile for Condren last time and he sticks with this colt. A win here wouldn't be a big shock. (4) SKYDECK can make the ticket off another inside following trip.
Race 7
(7) ETRUSCAN HANOVER takes a big drop and gets a better post here. He can take these all the way on the front end. (4) HARPER BLUE CHIP has finally found some good form and he fits this class. He is an exacta factor again. (5) EXEMPLAR was 2nd to a big winner last time he raced in this class. He should contend here and make the ticket, at the very least. (6) INTIMIDATE has seen much better days, but he is in decent form now and he isn't out of this.
Race 8
(2) GHOST DANCE paced his back 1/2 in 55 1/5 in his debut to be a decent 3rd. You have to think he will be more forwardly-placed here; top call. (5) PHANTOM SEELSTER went for $74K at the Forest City sale and I get the feeling there's a lot more to him than what you see off two following trips in his qualifiers; using. (3) THOR DE VIE was beaten by a well-meant colt in his debut, but that was a good effort and he rates highly here. (4) JM JACK OF HEARTS showed enough in his June 24th qualifier to suggest he should make the ticket here.
Race 9
(5) EXQUISITE GLIDE came out on the wrong side of a six-way photo vs. better last week, but the class drop and post improvement puts him right there vs. these. (3) P L JERICO was a big winner in this class two back and getting Henry here sure doesn't hurt; using. (4) DOMITIAN HALL will be an early pace presence and likely stick around for a slice. (7) SASS has had several adventurous trips this year so far. One of these weeks, the racing luck will go his way and he will pop at a big price.
Race 10
(5) BUGATTI was out on the rim too long last week and he paid for it late. A slightly better trip gets the job done this time. (2) CHARMBO ORBIT moves inside and picks up McNair here; beware. (10) CHARMBO BLITZ - who is interestingly a 1/2-brother to the one above - is in great form, but he will have to work out a trip from out there. (7) SOUTHWIND MONTY raced well for Jamieson last week and he sticks here; using. (1) TERRA COTTA LAD can sneak onto the ticket late off an inside following trip.
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