Mohawk: Tuesday 7/18 Analysis
Best Bet: BIG RICH (9th)
Spot Play: RUGBY HANOVER (2nd)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1,4,6/6,7/3,5/2,5,6,7/2,5,8,10 = $38.40
EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,6,7/2,5,8,10/2,9/5 = $32
LATE PICK 4: 5/3,4,6.7/1,7/3,5,7 = $24
MEET STATS: 195 - 605 / $1054.00 BEST BETS: 26 - 60 / $95.90
SPOT PLAYS: 25 - 60 / $137.30
Race 1
(6) GIRL DRAMA has come back to her best form and the short field should enable her to get close enough turning for home to unleash a winning late kick; top call. (1) LETS LEAVEM goes for the top trainer and driver off the claim facing a horse that beat him by 11 1/4 lengths last time, but he should be able to carve out a good trip here and may bridge that gap immediately racing out of the new barn. (4) THE POWER OF MANY beat both that are selected above last time, so it might be foolish to leave him off Pick 5 tickets here. (3) SWEET ROYALTY stopped on the lead last time now he comes up tagged. If he can reproduce his penultimate start, he would be tough here.
Race 2
(6) RUGBY HANOVER - a $70K Harrisburg buy - is a full brother to Reverend Hanover who won his debut in 1:52 1/5 at Mohawk and took a life's mark of 1:48 3/5 over the same oval. I am going to estimate that he can drop enough time to win here in his first try. (7) DRAGON TIME's solid debut effort was a bit overshadowed by his stablemate's dominant winning mile, but that was a solid effort and he is a top contender here. (3) EVENING PLAY is related to several winners and looks ready for a good effort based on his July 11th qualifier. (2) WYN comes off a solid debut win at Georgian, but he is unlikely to be allowed to crawl through the first 3/4 here like he was then.
Race 3
(3) JULA DOWNTON made a big and decisive move in the third 1/4 of his debut mile and he finished strongly. He looks good to double up here. (5) DELCREST HOLIDAY - also a sharp debut winner - finished faster than the choice, but that was off slower fractions. This could boil down to a two-horse battle in the stretch. (8) MASTER SAVER is worth a look on the driver change here as James Macdonald has already popped with several bombs at this meet. (7) SMART PICK looks best of the rest here and he should make the ticket.
Race 4
(7) IM THE PIED PIPER goes for his 5th win in six starts here and he projects to get a quick enough early pace to facilitate his patented late move; top call. (5) OCAPTAIN MYCAPTAIN has improved in every start for Montini. He is a good alternative to the choice here. (6) CUNDALINI gets a big driver change off the claim here; beware. (2) INTENDED STYLE knows where the wire is and the veteran comes off a sharp win. He is another that can take this in a race that will likely be decided by trip.
Race 5
(8) NORTHERN STARLIGHT was simply too far back and on too much cover last time, but she maintained her strong form. Trainer/driver Vanderkemp - who continues to win with regularity - is dangerous with virtually everything he sends out; slight nod. (10) MAJESTIC KAT is clearly one of the best in here, but, with no Grassroots points on the line, it's hard to predict her trip starting from the 10 hole. (2) ITS HALLRIGHT should get away better from this post, which puts her in the conversation here. Toss her on Pick 4 tickets. (5) RADICAL ROAD has raced well in two straight at Georgian and he's worth a look here with Roy taking over the driving duties.
Race 6
(9) NORTHERN STORMONT raced well in his first start for a purse out of Vanderkemp's barn. The outside post should help boost his price; I'll land here. (2) MUSICAL SPELL is obvious on the class drop here. Expect a big speed try. (5) FORK edged the choice last time in a decent effort. He fits here and should contend. (3) FEDERAL ARMY has never hit the board on the WEG circuit in 11 previous tries. He is a bet-against for me here.
Race 7
(5) CHARMBO ORBIT is one-for-one with McNair at the controls. He should be tough right back leaving from a good post. (1) APHRO STAR was game in defeat after doing most of the work last time. He is solid in claimers. (7) SIERRA MADRE has four good starts in a row on his card and he is worth a look at what should be a square price here. (3) SOUTHWIND MONTY doesn't win often, but he should make the ticket here using a similar style as he did in his past two starts.
Race 8
(4) NORTH AND SOUTH could do nothing to close ground in his debut when OSS Gold horses were trotting their back 1/2 in 57 2/5 over Georgian. He should show much more here. (3) SAY YOU DO - a $50K Harrisburg purchase - is related to several winners and he gets McNair here for his seconds start. He'll be right there if he stays flat. (6) RADICAL ATTEMPT is worth a look with Zeron taking over the reins here. (7) AUDACIOUS finished well after taking a shuffle in his debut. He should share here.
Race 9
(1) BIG RICH takes a big class plunge here and Roy will no doubt try to control things on the front end. Catch him to greet the cashier. (7) LEXUS ROCKY got started up too late last time, but he was motoring in the closing stages of the mile. He is sharp, consistent and tough to leave out. (3) DOMITIAN HALL is another that was gapped out who got going too late. The flow of this race could be more to his liking and he should get a better start; using. (2) MEGO MOSS faces tougher off the claim here and I am willing to try to beat him out of the Pick 4.
Race 10
(7) P L JERICO couldn't stay with a runaway leader last time, but he projects to get a good trip up on the pace here and he has the track's hottest driver calling the shots; top call. (3) I WANT KANDY brings a new life's mark back to Mohawk and she has been competitive here in the past. Toss her in the late Pick 4. (5) PINK PISTOL should wake up here with the reclassification, but it's hard to say if it will be enough to beat them all. (2) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL should get away near the front and sit a good enough trip to take a share. (10) STONEBRIDGE PEACE is one to consider at a price that can pass horses late and hit the ticket.
[DRF HARNESS NEWSLETTER: Sign Up for the FREE DRF Harness Newsletter. Fresh content and insights delivered each Thursday.]