Mohawk: Tuesday 6/6 Analysis

Best Bet: TRY TRY AGAIN (1st)

Spot Play: SHAREN HANOVER (3rd)

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 4 / 3,8 / 4 / 3,5,9 / ALL = $12

EARLY PICK 4: 3,5,9 / 1,5,7 / 6,7,8 / 3,4 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 3,4 / 1,6,9 / 1,7,8 / 3,7 = $36

MEET STATS: 103 - 322 / $619.40 BEST BETS: 12 - 30 / $52.50

SPOT PLAYS: 11 - 30 / $60.70

Race 1

(4) TRY TRY AGAIN has been flawless in two starts so far and he may have actually beaten better than he faces here. He will be a very short price and it’s hard to see him getting beat if he trots the whole mile. (7) YO YO MASS was used up early last time and the fast fractions took their toll. He can last longer here with the pace expected to be more moderate. (5) MASSTER BLUE is worth a look on record alone, having won more races (4) than the rest of the field combined (3). (9) HOLIDAY MONDAY came up with his best effort last time while still finishing on the fringes. He could rally for a slice here if he stays flat.

Race 2

This Grassroots race appears to have only two legitimate contenders on paper: (3) SANTINI and (8) EURO GAP. I will give the edge to the former, who finished 2nd in the Grassroots final last year and has a slightly better post. The latter will likely try to go down the road and if he gets a breather, he is a big threat to go all the way. (2) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY has raced better in his two most recent starts. He can grab a slice here. (4) A J RICOCHET blew up before the 1/4 at London – his only miscue to date. He can lay close here and stick around for a slice.

Race 3

(4) SHAREN HANOVER – a $50K Harrisburg buy – is a half-sister to $1.2 million earner Sassa Hanover, who in addition to winning the Jugette, was a nose short of winning her first seven starts. This filly showed enough speed in her May 28th qualifier for me to confidently put her on top. (9) NORTHERN SWIFT was used hard in a quick opening 1/2 last week and she had nothing left for the stretch drive. She could improve dramatically here off an improved trip. (2) SPORTS LEADER showed little in his seasonal opener, but notice the five slices from 13 starts last year and consider her for Tri and Super plays. (3) BIG CHUTE has been finishing quickly from too far back. Zeron may try different – and more effective – tactics here.

Race 4

(9) MORE THAN MAJESTIC closed some ground into a rapid final ¼, which should have him primed perfectly for this Grassroots try for a stable that typically strikes with these types after a tightener or two; top call. (3) WARAWEE SHIPSHAPE is in solid form, but he may be over bet relative to his chances here. (5) R FIRST CLASS had a promising opener that he can build from and he is in with a shot here. (8) AFDVENTURE AHEAD parlayed a heady drive and a perfect trip into a City of London final win and a new life’s mark last time. I may have him rated a bit low here, but he will need to find more speed to compete for the top prizes against these.

Race 5

This race has the looks of one that falls apart late to me, so I am anticipating a horse tripping out to win. Both (1) KOULTONS ROCKET and (7) BIG YELLOW fit that profile. I will give the former the nod based on post and the thinking that he will get an inside following trip and emerge late. The latter drops and should be coming late vs. this easier group. (5) A MARCOU STORY looks solid off his most recent qualifier, but he has been hard to control in the past. Take a good look at him in the post parade. (8) KINGSLEY B is another that can pass some winded leaders late here and take a share.

Race 6

(7) P C SILENT DRIVE was inexplicably kept behind fading cover around the final turn which backed him up badly at London and may have cost him a chance at the win. A better steer and improved trip here could get him a victory, likely at a square price. (8) DONTCRAMPMYSTYLE finished marginally ahead of the choice, but the front was the place to be that night and he still got picked off. I will use him in the Pick 4 but hope to beat him just the same. (6) MOTOWN JACKPOT comes back to Mohawk with improving form and he has a decent chance in here. (4) BLOOD MOON can share if he can race to his June 2nd qualifier.

Race 7

(4) ABBYDORNEY gets a better post to work from here and a notable driver change. Expect a more aggressive steer and a better result. (3) MAROMA BEACH – a $110K yearling buy – looks faster this year and he will be tough coming off two powerful qualifying wins. (7) JAYDENS PLACE was picked off late by the chalk last time in a quick mile. He has really come around and he is a threat here. (9) THREE MORE SMILES can close for a minor share if he stays flat this time.

Race 8

(6) ROCKN OPIUM was a solid winner last time with Roy in the bike and he sticks here; call to repeat. (9) HOLD IT HANOVER was held up until very late in the mile last time and she closed well on the leader, who is a stakes-bound filly; using. (1) FRANSCHOEK should be closing again for at least a slice and if she can get away better this time, she may be right there on the line. (3) EVERYONES WATCHING is worth a look going for the hot Alagna barn.

Race 9

(1) MAC AND PAY was a sharp winner in good time in Pennsylvania and now he moves into a hot barn shipping in; top call. (7) ROSE RUN SPEEDSTER has to be considered moving into Allard’s barn; using. (8) MAJESTIC STREAK qualified well enough that he could make an impact here for a barn that can send one ready for these types of races. (4) TOUGHER THAN EVER has raced better with Henry in the bike. A share is likely here.

Race 10

(3) SASS drops to a level where he should be able to control things or work out a nice pocket trip if another top contender insists on leading. He should be very tough in here. (7) DUH BUBBEED raced great last time only to be nailed in the final stride. He is the main threat despite the class rise. (2) PRESQUILLE can take a small share as has been his custom recently. (4) DUNVEGAN DON is another that should rally to make one of the lower exotics rungs. (5) LMC MASS OAK is one I keep thinking will pop up and win at a price, but so far it hasn’t come to pass. He picked up Roy at scratch time. Maybe he can wake him up.