Mohawk: Tuesday 6/20 Analysis
Best Bet: MACH THE CUT (4th)
Spot Play: E L WILD SPIRIT (3rd)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1,3,5,9/5,8,9/4,6,10/9/2,4,7,8 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 9/2,4,7,8/1,10/3,4,6,7 = $32
LATE PICK 4: 3,4,6,7/4,6/5,6,8/2,8 = $48
MEET STATS: 133 - 407 / $738.70 BEST BETS: 18 - 40 / $70.90
SPOT PLAYS: 18 - 40 / $100.90
Race 1
(5) TYMAL REIGN should enjoy racing against what should be considerably easier here, but she is sure to take a lot of play. She gets my nod, but it also makes sense to price shop in a race like this. (3) CARSON HILL's 2nd start was decent, considering he started from the 10 hole, and he has a shot here vs. these with the move inside. (9) LATE SHIFT has a decent chance to break her running streak of 4th-place finishes here and her good early speed should play well in this field. She will need to improve her late speed to beat them all, however. (1) KENDRAS COCO gets the tricky inside post here, but it's still an improvement from all of the outside draws she has got previously. She should improve here.
Race 2
(5) CRYSTAL GUMDROP couldn't chase a strong winner down last week in a Grassroots race, but she was easily best of the rest and she should be right there vs. these. (8) TICKET TO SEATTLE has turned things around this year for a barn that specializes in young racehorses. She is a Pick 5 must-use for me here. (9) HUDSONS YA YA showed sharp improvement the second time Macdonell drove. She has upset possibilities here and the price is sure to be good with her leaving from the farthest outside post. (6) EXPOSE YOURSELF looked gone at the head of the lane last week, but she got really soft late and was picked off. She should be a speed threat again, but I prefer others on the win end here.
Race 3
(6) E L WILD SPIRIT perfectly towed the winner around the track last week, but was still game in defeat. With that rival not in here, this gelding gets top call. (4) THINK AGAIN finished two lengths back of the choice last time after setting the pace the whole way. His form is improving, and picking up Henry won't hurt; using. (10) OFORPETESAKE took a new life's mark in his first start racing out of the Johnson barn. He must be considered a threat here, even from the 10-hole. (8) SKY GUY brings some good form with him from the B tracks, but a lesser share is likely in the cards for him here.
Race 4
(9) MACH THE CUT, as expected, had a lot more to offer than what she showed on the program for her debut, but racing greenly cost her a top 3 finish. Her 1:52 4/5 time sticks out here, so she may get over bet, but she can beat these if she can overcome her greeness. (2) TOUCHING THOUGHT dropped three seconds last week when racing first up in the same race as the choice. I expect that Waples will send her off the gate here. (1) DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE has only missed the board once racing out of town; respect her consistency. (3) MACHS ECHO popped at a huge price at Grand River when able to clear early. Henry will have her winging here, too, but she likely won't last the mile vs. these.
Race 5
(8) MAJESTIC KAT was buried for the entire stretch run last week and although there is an interference notation in the program, there was no inquiry. A better trip gets the job done here. (7) POWERFUL MISSION was on her way to a good finish when she trotted over a head number and broke stride. A clean journey here puts her right there vs. this group. (4) BUSTINGATTHESEAMS escaped the pylons and powered up late to win her third straight. She is obviously a contender here too, but her price may be too short to take in the win pool. (2) YOU CANT AFFORD ME was picked off late in a Grassroots race and her good early speed should be respected in this spot. This is a Pick 4 and 5 spread race for me.
Race 6
(1) VERO AMORE BI and (10) SWEET OF MY HEART both come into this race off powerful lifetime-best wins. I will side with the former - who is more sure-gaited - but use both in the Pick 4. The latter dominated an OSS Gold field from start to finish, but she is unlikely to gap the choice out the entire way here if she tries similar tactics. (4) MANSSIVE had little to offer against better, but he is capable of waking up with a better effort in this spot. (8) DREAM MASSIVE should be closing for a piece here; consider for exotics.
Race 7
(3) TIGERS WAY couldn't chase down the tripped-out winner last week, but he has performed well for driver Roy and he looks good here. (7) DUBIOUS CLAIM has developed a lethal final 1/4 kick, but he will always have traffic issues to deal with if he keeps using that racing style. Demand a square price if you like him to win. (3) APHRO STAR woke up with a big effort in a claimer and he should threaten here coming off that strong mile. (6) AMERICAN HUSTLE had no luck in Buffalo, but check out his race here two back which stamps him as a contender.
Race 8
(4) MAXIMUSCLE took the trotting hopples off and put it all together in his June 13th qualifier. He gets the nod here with the hopes that trainer Marfisi has hom figured out now. (6) HARPER BLUE CHIP showed some late interest vs. better now he gets to drop a class. This isn't the toughest field. I'll use him. (8) ADO DUHARAS raced okay for Filion last time, but he was out too long. Filion sticks and he can get a slice here. (3) NOTROUBLE DECHAFRA blew up when seemingly on his way to a top two finish last time. He can share if he stays flat, but he has had similar gait issues in the past.
Race 9
(5) SIX BEFORE SEVEN gets away from the streaking East End here and he should be a major player vs. this group. (8) FOUR CARD MAJOR was a stride short last time in an improved effort. He must be respected in this spot. (6) ROCKIN RONNIE races better when he is situated closer to the front early in the mile. He should be leaving harder this time; using. (4) MASTER SMILE should be the early pacesetter here and he should stick around for a share.
Race 10
(8) LEXUS ROCKY has been great for Vanderkemp the past two starts and a threepeat is a definite strong possibility here. (2) LADY PING faces easier here and she should get a decent covered trip starting from the inside. She should be the main threat to the choice. (10) O NARUTAC PERFETTO is capable vs. these and driver Macdonald won one from the 10-hole with a trotter last week; using. (1) MURMUR HANOVER showed nothing last week, but perhaps Roy can wake him up here with a move to an inside post. (7) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL can leave for position then stick around to make the High-5 ticket.
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