Mohawk: Tuesday 6/13 Analysis
Best Bet: FRONTIER SEELSTER (9th)
Spot Play: MOONSTAR MISSION (8th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2,3,9/2,4,5,7/3,5/3,6,9/6,7 = $38.40
EARLY PICK 4: 3,6,9/6,7/6,7/5,8 = $24
LATE PICK 4: 3,4,5,8/4/2/1,3,5,6,7 = $20
MEET STATS: 115 - 364 / $669.20 BEST BETS: 15 - 35 / $59.10
SPOT PLAYS: 14 - 35 / $77.20
Race 1
(9) TWIN B VENUS will need to drop several seconds to have a chance in here, but I like the way she has finished her last couple of miles in which he stayed flat and she attracts the leading driver here; slight nod. (2) LATE SHIFT can leave as fast as any in here but she has trouble holding on late. This is a pretty weak bunch so maybe she lasts longer this time. (1) EXPRESS YOURSELF was on the run long before the start last time. She will be a threat if she can stay flat, but the #1 post is likely not good for her at this track. (3) HAB FAITH couldn't hold off a 3-5 chalk the other night and tired late. She has had 11 tries with no success, but she looks like a contender here.
Race 2
(5) MACH THE CUT showed a decent burst very late in her May 22nd qualifier, despite being well behind the leader. I'll take a swing for the fences with this $65K Canadian Yearling purchase who is a full-sister to Mach A Wish ($601K, 1:50 f.) and Mach It Big ($405K, 1:52 1/5 f.). (7) TOUCHING THOUGHT finished well enough in her season debut to suggest she will go forward off that effort. (4) PARTY BEACH brings a two-race win streak back to Mohawk and she is an obvious contender here off those improved efforts. (2) B FIFTEEN broke while on the move in a Grassroots race last time. She is a logical contender here and she will likely get bet quite a bit.
Race 3
(3) MONI JUSTICE ships in off a decent debut effort for trotting expert Henriksen. It would be no surprise if she dropped a few seconds and won here. (5) YOU CANT AFFORD ME was a sharp second to a strong winner on June 5th and a repeat of that mile puts her right there with these. (2) POWERFUL MISSION has gait issues, but notice she did win four times last year and took her mark here. She is another possibility here. (10) ANGORA SEELSTER gets a big driver switch here from the trainer to Canada's leading dash winner. She could easily better this placing.
Race 4
(3) SHAGNWITHTHEDRAGON failed as a big chalk last time, but trip wasn't ideal then and he can bounce back here with a better journey. (6) PENZANCE HANOVER was a close 2nd in a fast clocking for maidens to one who came back to repeat the other night. He's the one to beat here. (9) TOXICITY ships in and switches barns from Filion to Larocque, a move that has produced several winners in the past; using. (7) BROOKDALE FLETCHER goes for the potent Moore/Henry combo and there is likely more speed here than what you see on the program page.
Race 5
(7) MAJESTIC KAT was perfectly prepped for this Grassroots start on June 5th for a barn that typically races them conservatively leading up to these types of races. Expect a more aggressive try here. (6) ANNIKADABRA - last year's Grassroots final winner - is back with her own kind here and she should be more prominent. (5) BUSTINGATTHESEAMS was too much for weaker foes at London. She will have to prove he can do it here, and I wouldn't take a short price on her in this spot. (8) JILONA couldn't advance first up last time but she could be an early speed presence here and stick around for a slice.
Race 6
(6) E L WILD SPIRIT was used early last time, which may not be the best strategy for him. He can bounce back here. (7) EAST END dug in late to win as Henry sat quietly down the lane last time. He can threaten here, but the way he was driven that night suggests that he has some soundness issues. (9) SIX BEFORE SEVEN is hard to leave out - even from post 10 - going for Moreau and Roy here.
Race 7
(8) P C PIPE DREAM gets a notable driver change for this switch to Mohawk and he fits here; top call. (5) MILLERS SONG is undefeated and picks up Roy. He is a must-use in this field. (4) ESPOIR GO brings a solid record west from Ottawa and his good early speed should translate into a good trip here; using. (3) STRITCH held off a big favorite late last time, but the final 1/4 doesn't jump off the page; smaller share predicted.
Race 8
(4) MOONSTAR MISSION unleashed a powerful late brush to easily defeat similar last week. He is hard to go past here. (9) HEAD TURNING JAG turned in a powerful first-over effort to beat non-winners of two last week. He looks like the main threat to the choice here. (5) DREAM MASSIVE was out a long way in the same race and he paid the price late. He could turn the tables and upset here off a better trip. (10) MONEY MISSION can wind up from far back and pass a few of these for a small share here.
Race 9
(2) FRONTIER SEELSTER lays over this group and he shouldn't need to go near as fast to the 3/4 as he did in the Somebeachsomewhere stakes; no excuses here. (9) MANCEIVER comes out of the same race but post will be a factor here. He can close late to complete the exacta. (8) TIGERS WAY steps up off a sharp win, but the choice is much tougher than what he faced that night. (1) DOWN ON MY LUCK can sneak into the exotics late with McNair driving here.
Race 10
(3) EXQUISITE GLIDE gets a big post switch here after a sharp closing effort from the 10-hole. Jamieson may look to take control early this time; top call. (1) LMC MASS OAK is getting closer to a win now and the inside has played better of late; using. (5) SUMMIT CITY NATE steps up off a string win and he obviously must be considered here off that effort. (7) KEN KAN WIN has raced well here in the past and ships in off two good efforts at Kawartha. He can crash the exotics at a price here. (6) STONEBRIDGE PEACE should be a factor dropping a class here.
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