Mohawk: Thursday 8/31 Analysis

Best Bet: ROCKIN RONNIE (9th)

Spot Play: AMERICAN SPORTSMAN (4th)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 1,7,8 / 2,5,6,8 / 1,3,9 / 1,3,7 / 7.8 = $43.20

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,7 / 7,8 / 1,2,6,8 / 4,6,9 = $72

LATE PICK 4: 4,6,9 / 1,2,5,8 / 3 / 2,7 = $24

MEET STATS: 307 – 894 / $1,710.60 BEST BETS: 39 - 87 / $138.60

SPOT PLAYS: 33 - 86 / $191.30

Race 1

(1) QUADRANGLE won and took a good mark in only his second start last year at 2. He finds a good spot here to make his sophomore debut and he has a decent shot if he gets put into the race early enough. (8) ALPHA SEELSTER has a winning race at Mohawk in July that would make him very tough if he could repeat it here, and he beat better that night; using. (7) ESPOIR GO took a shuffle last time in a good Grassroots field and the winner of that race came back to win from the 9-hole at Georgian. I’ll toss her in the Pick 5. (9) PERFECT MASS should show more in this spot.

Race 2

(2) CATSHARK showed a bit of late interest in her debut and maybe she can jump up here and take these at a price at second asking. (6) PRECISION HANOVER has been involved in some quick miles and she should do better in this field. (5) A BETTOR LADY has finished quickly in both starts. If she gets into contention by the 3/4 pole here, she should share. (8) FIRESTORM was thrown to the wolves in her second start. She should have a better chance here.

Race 3

(1) NORTHERN LIGHTNING trotted two strong miles in a row and she looks ready to break her maiden in this Grand Circuit event. (3) COURTNEY HANOVER won the Pure Ivory off some great trips, but I won’t penalize her for having the speed to get good position from which to capitalize; using. (9) BELLA GLOS is a threat to wire this contentious field with Gingras at the controls. (8) MISS MIMI is so well-bred that she could break out anytime. Toss her in the exotics.

Race 4

(3) AMERICAN SPORTSMAN was shuffled back in a quick mile last week and now he gets McNair for the first time, which is an angle that quite often pays; top call. (1) FREDDY BEAR closed well and he is a top threat here. (7) ROLLAROUNDTHEWORLD gets a barn change following a dull sophomore debut. He can go better. (2) SHAGNWITHTHEDRAGON is in good form, but these are tougher. A small share is predicted for him.

Race 5

(8) FONDUE had no hope last week with the final 1/4 being trotted in 26 4/5. She should be tighter here and may offer a good price; slight nod. (7) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY gets McNair back and this duo has done well together; using. (4) ZLATAN has eight other shares and one win in 18 attempts. I’ll try to beat him here as a likely vulnerable favorite. (1) LUCYS MAN is capable vs. these if he can stay trotting.

Race 6

(1) JORDAN BLUE CHIP was unlucky last time to get edged by the pocket-sitter who sat a perfect trip throughout the mile. She looks solid in this spot. (6) ALLOVERAGAIN went a tough trip in the same race and failed only late. She is in with a decent chance here. (8) SWING IT KATHY is impeccably bred and she won’t be held off much longer. (2) APPRENTICE M is another contender in a field where wide Pick 4 coverage may be needed.

Race 7

(4) P L JASMINE was part of some rapid early fractions last time and she stayed on well. She can get a better trip here. (6) DOCS SAUSILITO closed well last time – albeit in a slowing late pace – but that was good improvement and she can challenge here. (9) NO PANIC stepped up off the claim and overtook some winded leaders late for a win. She figures here, but so do others and she may not get the same trip. (2) BAD AT REDHOT can close for a smaller share again.

Race 8

(1) BETTOR JIN hasn’t won this year, but he has improved form of late and he gets hot driver Henry; slight nod in a weak field. (5) PRAIRIECREEKPRINCE qualified well enough on August 15th to suggest he has a shot in here. (8) ABSOLUTE INTENT faced tougher last time when first up. He can be right there on the wire with a decent trip. (2) SOUTHWIND MCLAREN gets a trainer change shipping in and he is 1 for 3 lifetime facing rivals that are a combined 1 for 100; consider.

Race 9

(3) ROCKIN RONNIE drops back to a conditioned claimer here and he should find these easier. (1) SIX BEFORE SEVEN was too far back last time in a race that featured a quick final 1/4. He is in with an upset chance here if he can get a better start. (4) THE BIG BEAST is a threat to repeat coming off a solid win, but he should get challenged by the choice at some point. (7) LIVELY FREDDIE can be closer here if he can avoid a first-over trip this time.

Race 10

(7) JAN is obviously best here, but she has missed three weeks and may be a bit short, too. I’ll give her the nod, but she offers no value in the win pool. (2) BEACH GODDESS was a strong winner in her second start and she looks like the only logical alternative to the choice. (6) TALBOT CHANEL can close for a slice here. (5) PARTY BEACH could trip-out near the lead and make the ticket at a price. (9) FRANSCHOEK never misses the top five and she could better this placing if she can get a spot near the front leaving the gate.