Mohawk: Thursday 8/17 Analysis
Best Bet: ON A SUNNY DAY (6th)
Spot Play: OUTLAW GUNPOWDER (3rD)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,3,4,5/2,3,5/4,6/3,5/8,10 = $19.20
EARLY PICK 4: 3,5/8,10/8/2,6,8 = $12
LATE PICK 4: 2,6,8/1/2,3,6,8/3,4,5 = $36
MEET STATS: 270 - 792 / $1,524.80 BEST BETS: 33 - 77 / $119.80
SPOT PLAYS: 32 - 76 / $187.80
Race 1
(5) PRECISION HANOVER paced the fastest mile on the page in the Whenyouwishuponastar final and while I don’t love her, I’ll give her a slight nod in a tricky race. (3) ONLY ONE STAR had something go amiss last time. If she can pace a mile similar to her effort two back, she will be right there. (1) INTREPID LADY faces easier and is worth a look. (4) RINGING OF THE BELL should be right there if Cullen’s trainer pattern with recently acquired stock holds up.
Race 2
(3) CANTABERNET trotted a big mile last week, but he was no match for a dominating winner. He gets the call here with that rival gone. (5) WILL CAN GO wasn’t far behind the choice and that was his debut mile. He wouldn’t need to improve much to be right there. (2) SWEET TALKIN HALL exits the same race as the two choices above and he too could take this with the right trip. (1) CRUZE ON OVER could stick around for a small slice after leaving from the inside.
Race 3
(4) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER showed a glimpse of his good late kick when reunited with Cullen last time. He may just mow them all down this week; nod. (6) INTENDED STYLE is strictly the one to beat, bringing a four-race win streak into this race. (8) CUNDALINI drops to the bottom level, but it seems he is always more likely to take a slice rather than a win. (3) AMBLE OVER HANOVER raced well for Roy last week. He isn’t impossible here, but he is also still looking for his first 2017 win.
Race 4
(3) FONDUE was asked for little when racing from the 10-hole last time and he delivered the same. Moving inside here gives him a good chance to rebound. (5) MUSCLE HIGH is another that gets off post 10 and he is hard to ignore with two wins in 1:53 or faster already registered down south. (7) CAGEY was patiently driven to his maiden win last week and he is obviously bred to be very good. He wouldn’t be a shock if he were to win here. (1) LADY GREY can ride a good inside following trip and take a share.
Race 5
(8) BODEGA BAY lacked room for part of the stretch drive last week after taking a mid-race shuffle. Returning in seven days here, he should be sharper throughout; top call. (10) TORRIN HANOVER paced a strong back 1/2 against a winner that stole an extremely slow opening 1/2. He should be a main player here and Waples is particularly good from outside posts. (6) CENTURY ENDEAVOR was wildly over bet last week, but he did rally for a share. He should do the same here. (2) MACHLICIOUS is worth a look making his second start and exiting a quick mile.
Race 6
(8) ON A SUNNY DAY is the boss of this division and she should rack up another win here. (1) ROYAL WITCH was no match for the choice last time. She will need to find another second of speed to upend her. (4) MAJESTIC KAT is a good bet to hit the board and is worthy of exacta consideration. (6) SWEET OF MY HEART can produce high speed or gallop around the track. If she stays flat here, she could make things interesting.
Race 7
(6) SIX BEFORE SEVEN padded a 55 1/5 back 1/2 last week but was too far back at the 3/4. If he is within striking range here, he could get it done. (8) LIVELY FREDDIE finished ahead of the choice in a good effort. Respect his improving form. (2) THE BIG BEAST has speed and picks up McNair here. He should be good for at least a slice. (5) ARTISTIC PICK usually hits the ticket when he leaves from the middle of the gate; consider.
Race 8
(1) MAGIC PRESTO – currently the 2nd best sophomore trotting filly of the continent – should be very tough to beat at odds-on here. (4) WINTER SWEET FROST made a host of changes that worked last week as she looked a bit like her old self. If there is going to be an upsetter here, it’s her. (5) TYMAL REIGN and (2) GRAVITATOR are two others to consider for use underneath.
Race 9
(6) PHIL THE THRILL was victimized by a slow third 1/4 last week and he came out of the pocket too late to wear the fresh leader down. He has shown promise in only two starts and he should be right there vs. these. (3) DRAMATIC POINT was bet down to 1-9 and he delivered, but he also was the beneficiary of a very slow early pace. He has great potential, but he is no lock here. (8) ODDS ON LAUDERDALE has several sub-27 final quarters that jump off the page at you; using. (2) DRAGON TIME blew up at the start of the Dream Maker final, losing all hope. He should bounce back with a good effort here, but this is no easy spot, either.
Race 10
(4) P L JASMINE took a new life’s mark last time she raced in this class. A drop-and-pop is very possible. (5) COLLECTIVE WISDOM was a solid winner in her first try in a claimer and she comes right back in the same class; using. (3) EVERY TIME showed sharp improvement last time. Toss her on late Pick 4 tickets. (7) MACH MAJORETTE is always closing, but she needs a perfect trip to win it seems. That is unlikely to materialize here. (6) LUXURY VACATION has a chance to share leaving from a good post here.
[DRF HARNESS NEWSLETTER: Sign Up for the FREE DRF Harness Newsletter. Fresh content and insights delivered each Thursday.]