Mohawk: Thursday 7/6 Analysis
Best Bet: ILLUSIONEESTA (6th)
Spot Play: SPORTS COWBOY (4th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1,4,5,6,8/4,7,8/1,4,7/4,8/5,8 = $36
EARLY PICK 4: 4,8/3,5,6,8/5/1,2,6,7 = $32
LATE PICK 4: 1,2,6,7/4,6/1,4,5/7,10 = $48
MEET STATS: 173 - 524 / $968.00 BEST BETS: 23 - 51 / $87.20
SPOT PLAYS: 24 - 51 / $133.90
Race 1
(1) MASS PSYCHOLOGY comes off two pretty brutal trips and moves inside now. Assuming she should get a better trip here, she looks as good as any to prevail in this field that has a combined record of 0 for 77. (4) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY has the best most recent race of any in here, but he could go off as chalk and I have a hard time backing low-priced 0 for 20 horses to win. (5) KUIL DEVA was third to a prohibitive favorite is her debut and there are no rivals like that one in here; using. (8) KENDRAS COCO has an outside shot here as she has shown some flashes of ability so far.
Race 2
(4) CARNEGIE HALL is a full-sister to 20-time winner Buddy Hally, who not only won $443K so far and has a race record of 1:52 3/5, but he also won his debut. I'll land here looking for a price. (7) KANT AFFORD IT is an obvious contender being that he trotted by far the fastest mile so far, but it's tough to eat chalk in these types of races which often feature many breakers. (8) DALLIANCE SEELSTER is the only one to race for a purse and the driver change won't hurt here. (6) P L LAYLA can close late for a piece of this.
Race 3
(7) CHRISTMAS CANDY is a homebred full-sister to four-time winner Angels Kid. She dropped five seconds in her second qualifier and she should get put into action early by Henry; slight nod. (1) STONEBRIDGE RHYME - a $29K Forest City sale purchase - showed enough in her lone qualifier to suggest she is a player here. (4) LADYS INTUITION was partially purchased by trainer/driver Zeron who will likely be looking for an immediate return here; using. (5) WARAWEE TRIP is the only one that has raced for a purse so far. That experience should help her take a share here.
Race 4
(4) SPORTS COWBOY makes his initial 2017 start out of the Brealey barn and he can send them ready; top call here. (8) ABBEYDORNEY powered his way to an impressive maiden-breaking score last week and McNair is a good partner for him. He is a multi-race must-use for me here. (1) FREDDY BEAR will likely look to sit a trip near the front and stay inside looking for room late. He could win with some racing luck, but a smaller share is more likely. (6) CLOUSEAU HANOVER is a good one to use on the bottom as he typically passes horses in the back 1/2.
Race 5
(5) ABSOLUTE INTENT showed good late energy last time and he should be all set for a top try here in his third start. (8) HES GONE BADDER gets a big barn change here and a notable driver upgrade. It will be interesting to see how heavily he gets bet. (6) MASTER THE VIEW finished ahead of the choice last time and while he looks good on current form, his 0 for 16 record gives reason for pause. (3) BRAVE WORLD gets Filion here. Perhaps he can wake him up and they can make the ticket at a big price.
Race 6
(5) ILLUSIONEESTA - full sister to Prestidigitator, $870K, 1:52 2/5 - was a $47K Harrisburg buy that looks ready to roll off her lone qualifier. (4) ZORGWIJK SOPHIA beat some pacers in her July 1st qualifier at Georgian. She looks like the main threat to the choice. (6) SMOKE AND MIRRORS showed enough in her first qualifier to be a factor here - is she stays flat. (7) SENORITA BONITA showed good trot in the final 1/4 of her lone qualifier; consider for exotics.
Race 7
(6) MAC RAIDER was deftly pinned inside most of the way by the leader on Sunday at Clinton and he got free too late to make any impact on the winner. This isn't the toughest group; I'll take a swing on him on the quick return. (7) FIRST CAR faces easier here and he gets McNair. There is plenty to like here. (1) BURNING SHORE also drops which should bring a better result. (2) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE came close at this level last time. He should be around at the finish here, too, but he tends to be win-shy.
Race 8
(4) SORCERESS SEELSTER - is a full-sister to Sergeant Seelster, who has won 18 of 36 starts to date. This $13K Forest City sale buy looks ready based on the way she trotted her final 3/4 in 1:28 2/5 in her lone qualifier. (6) MISS MIMI is very well bred and check out her 28 flat kicker; using. (1) GOTTA PAY TO PLAY goes for a barn that drives them aggressively at two. She is worth a long look here. (2) SMALL BUDGET is a full-sister to four winners. She too merits a look here in an interesting dash.
Race 9
(5) NASCAR SEELSTER parlayed a slow third 1/4 into another win last week, but he dug in and showed some grit last when headed. He is clearly improved and can take another here if provided with a decent trip. (1) DREAM OF LUCK pressed some big fractions and kept going last time. He rates highly here off that mile. (4) SOUTHWIND GENERAL had a long way to come last week and almost got there. He races better near the front, but, this is not a race that counts in the Grassroots standings, so it's hard to say what strategy he will deploy. (2) TREMENDOUS PLAY - while still a maiden - is good for a slice here.
Race 10
(10) DORABELLA was sensational in her first start out of the Waxman barn; call to repeat despite her post. (7) WHERE ARE WE has been on a real roll out of town. She should be able to transfer that good form in this field. (3) BAD AT REDHOT comes off a failed first-over trip, which is a favorite angle of mine. Toss her in the exotics here. (9) ALWAYS REESE will likely change tactics and look to race off a helmet here, which should get her a share. (5) TWO SIDES OF LOVE is a good one to use in the 4th and 5th slots of Super and High-5 tickets.
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