Mohawk: Thursday 7/27 Analysis

Best Bet: MYSTERY BET (5th)

Spot Play: BETTOR BB (9th)

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 2,3,4,5,7 / 1,4 / 4,8,9,10 / 3,5,6 / 3 = $19.20

EARLY PICK 4: 3,5,6 / 3 / 2,7,8,9 / 3,4,7 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 3,4,7 / 1,3,5,6 / 4,7 / 4,5 = $48

MEET STATS: 222 - 672 / $1,240.20 BEST BETS: 29 - 66 / $103.70

SPOT PLAYS: 28 - 66 / $157.10

Race 1

(5) RUGBY HANOVER should improve here off his even debut and he will likely get put into play earlier this time; slight nod in the opener. (4) LUCKY MICHAEL raced well twice in Grassroots company. He is likely the one to beat in this maiden dash. (2) WICKED APPLE has licence to get a much better trip here in his 2nd start; using. (3) P H HIPPIE is the only winner in this field and he faced tougher last time. This race is a difficult start to the $50K guaranteed Pick 5.

Race 2

(4) JAN was odds-on vs. her elders last time and almost pulled off the win. She should be tough vs. her own age group here. (2) LADY GRANDE was 2nd to the undefeated Percy Blue Chip here in an OSS Gold event on Monday. She will take plenty of action if she goes; deservedly so. (1) SAVE YOUR BREATH was third to a pretty good filly in her debut and she should make the ticket here, too. (6) INTREPID LADY looks next best. Use her on the bottom of Super bets.

Race 3

(4) SWEET ROYALTY trotted a 27 3/5 third quarter to blow it wide open last week. With lots of early speed here, I can see him sitting off the early lead and making a decisive brush on the backstretch. (8) THE POWER OF MANY is another that should benefit from the expected pace scenario. (10) MEGO MOSS drops and he is sure to be heard from early, but he likely won’t last starting from out there. (9) GIRL DRAMA will be making the last move and if the pace and flow are right for her, she could upset.

Race 4

(3) TUXEDO BAY was strung out to make the lead to the tune of a 27 1/5 third quarter last week and that cost him late. He is sharp and well-spotted here; top call. (6) TOXICITY has some final quarters that jump off the page. Starting from a better post should put him right in the mix. (5) XTERNAL couldn’t sustain a big move he made to the front last time. He can be right there with a bit of a better trip here. (9) DUBIOUS CLAIM will be last early, but can pass some of these to take a share.

Race 5

(3) MYSTERY BET meets a field he can handle here and Condren may send him right down the road. (2) ESCUELA gets her first inside post in several weeks, which could help her beat a few of these off the gate. Toss her in exacta and tri bets at a price. (4) MURMUR HANOVER gets class relief here, but he still will likely only take a minor share based on recent form. (10) WINDSONG MAGIC faces easier and she is worth a look at what should be a big price.

Race 6

(9) WISH I WAS THERE – a $50K Harrisburg sale buy – is a 1/2-sister to $419K earner Billy Flynn, who won his first eight starts. Her July 14th qualifier was outstanding and I’ll give her the nod here. (8) JORDAN BLUE CHIP flew home to win her debut. She’s the one to beat. (7) WAR STORY – a $100K Lexington sale purchase – is a 1/2-brother to $181K earner Deep Impact, who took a mark of 1:55 1/5 over Mohawk; using. (2) SWEET TALKIN HALL is a $75K Lexington sale buy who is a 1/2-brother to $94K winner Showbiz Hall. He can take a share in this debut mile.

Race 7

(7) FRANSCHOEK remained game despite coming under siege in the back half last week. She will notch her first 2017 win soon and has a good chance of doing so here. (3) ROCKN OPIUM was too far back last time to make an impact. She should be closer here. (4) MACH THE CUT ran into the horse she was following early in the mile last time and she broke for a few strides, but then made a good recovery. She’s a contender. (6) MOMENT TO PONDER will be heard from early then likely stick around for a share.

Race 8

(5) WHEN YOU DANCE was absolutely flying at the end of his debut mile after sitting 11th at the half. He should improve sharply here leaving from the middle of the gate. (6) BRUNO FROM MARS has a similar profile to the choice, also getting off post 10, and he should be heard from, too. (1) SIZZLING SUMMER drops from OSS Gold company here so he should improve. (3) CENTURY ENDEAVOR paced a decent final 1/4 last time in a Grassroots race. He is worth a look, likely at a square price.

Race 9

(7) BETTOR BB exits an extremely fast race for this class and he did pass some rivals in the back half that day. Meeting a group that is 0 for 87 so far gives him every chance. (4) ABSOLUTE INTENT is the next lightest-raced horse in the field and he has shown a bit of ability so far; using. (5) MASTER THE VIEW has 10 slices in 18 starts and that trend likely continues here. (3) TREMENDOUS PLAY is another that takes shares almost every race. He is a contender, but likely to be over bet.

Race 10

(4) APHRO STAR drops and he gets some early speed to chase here; top call. (5) GOTAMEETING adds Lasix shipping in and he will no doubt get an aggressive steer here. Toss him in the late Pick 4. (6) ROCKIN RONNIE goes for three straight, but McNair jumps off; mixed signals. (9) TOP DESIRE is always a threat at this level but he rarely seals the deal. (8) MCSINNER MAN is worth a look dropping into a claimer for the first time.