Mohawk: Thursday 7/20 Analysis

Best Bet: BURNING MIDNIGHT (8th)

Spot Play: CHOCOLATE SWIRL (5th)

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 6,10 / 4,5 / 4,5,6,8 / 1,2,8 / 3,4,8,10 = $38.40

EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,8 / 4,8,10 / 5,8,11 / 6,7 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 5 / 1,6,7,9 / 2,3,5,10 / 4,6,9 = $48

MEET STATS: 202 - 626 / $1100.20 BEST BETS: 26 - 62 / $95.90

SPOT PLAYS: 26 - 62 / $145.20

Race 1

(6) PHANTOM SEELSTER – as expected – was put into action much earlier last time and he took a nice win. He simply looks the fastest in here and while I like to price shop in Grassroots races, this isn’t a spot where I will try that. (10) HOWMAC DANCER was picked off late by the pocket-sitter after coming under serious pressure on the final turn. He remains sharp and dangerous. (5) WIND BLAST couldn’t hold off a closer that absolutely flew late and passed them all. He is another in with a decent shot here. (1) PRETTY HANDSOME – a half-brother to solid local mares Pretty Hot and Ainsleynoelle – is worth a look in his debut here.

Race 2

(4) MISTER KEARNS – a $75K Lexington buy – made two moves and drew off late over a wet track in his July 14th qualifier. He looks ready. (5) ALARM DETECTOR, a $110K Harrisburg buy, trotted faster than the choice but made no real move of his own after the start. Toss him on Pick 5 tickets. (2) JOEY BATS had a decent enough opener to suggest he fits here, but driver Jones doesn’t win many on the WEG tracks these days. (1) SUMSECRET was well behind the choice in her qualifier and while she is the only filly taking on the boys in here, she could rally to hit the Super.

Race 3

(5) WESTERN PASSAGE rallied late for 2nd after sitting behind a wild early pace last time. I can see Cullen leaving harder here and looking to trip-out near the front; slight nod. (8) SPORTS LEGEND accelerated late to nail an odds-on chalk last time and he has enough speed to work out a trip from out there; using. (4) SHADOW MOON steps up off an easy Grassroots debut win and he isn’t out of this. (6) JET AVIATION hung a bit late after pacing his first 3/4 in 1:23 4/5, which was understandable. He could upset here with a trip.

Race 4

(8) WHERE ARE WE moves in two posts and should get sent this time by Henry; slight nod. (2) P L JASMINE took a ton of action last time and she almost lasted. She is a contender her as is (1) BRITTLE, who figures dropping back into a claimer. (3) MACH MAJORETTE should get a solid pace to track here and she will be coming late for at least a slice.

Race 5

(4) CHOCOLATE SWIRL wasn’t pushed early in his debut, but he finished with good energy and can improve sharply here if he is sent hard for the front early. (8) JM JACK OF HEARTS left hard last time, then followed a strong winner home. He fits well here. (10) BRUNO FROM MARS is a half-brother to solid campaigners Mach Dreamer (23 wins, $889K, 1:49 1/5) and Drain Daddy (20 wins, $329K, 1:49 3/5). He likely has more speed than what you see on the program; using. (3) DAM LUCKY had a useful tightener out of town and now he picks up a driver that scores with longshots regularly; consider.

Race 6

(8) LETJIMMYTAKEOVER shaved almost nine seconds off last time in a solid effort. He looks as good as any in a wide-open affair. (11) P L LEEROY finished just behind the choice in his debut, but he traveled farther. He could trip-out here form the 2nd-tier. (5) FERRARIFEVER recovered well from an early miscue in his debut and he gets a good post. He is one of many contenders in with a chance. (4) POKERFACE BLUECHIP can improve if he can avoid going first up here.

Race 7

(6) EVASIVE CARD SHARK drops to the bottom here and he should be prominent throughout. (7) THORN IN YOUR SIDE has been facing tougher south of the border. He will likely be sent on a speed mission. (9) ONLYTHETUFFSURVIVE improved sharply the 2nd time McNair drove – as many do – but this assignment is tougher. (3) LOVEDANCINGWITHYOU figures for another slice.

Race 8

(5) BURNING MIDNIGHT – a $25K Harrisburg purchase – finds a great spot to debut here and he gets the leading driver; top call. (4) TEAREM A NEW ONE should improve dropping out of OSS Gold company; using. (3) LUCKY MICHAEL is another that can improve after following along for third in his opener. (8) BLUE MOOSE couldn’t sustain a first-over move as the late pace picked up in his debut. He is worth a look here at what could be a square price.

Race 9

(7) JIMMY FREIGHT went a phenomenal mile on the Iowa Fair circuit last time which led to a private sale. While he may have to shave more than six seconds off his last time to win this, he could be this good. (1) DANCIN DOUG tracked and overcame some wicked fractions last time. He will be tough here. (9) GOTH HANOVER will provide some early competition for the lead for the choice. Tactics will be interesting here and could decide it. (6) LUCKY SPORT has two solid miles under his belt and he isn’t out of this, either.

Race 10

(2) HUDSON PHIL produced a winning rally in his debut and he has paced all of his final quarters in sub-28 time so far; call to repeat. (5) DISMISSAL SLIP moves to the middle of the gate for start #2 and he should be heard from here. (3) AVALON HANOVER was no match for the winner in a quick mile in his opener, but he held 2nd in a good effort. He should share again. (10) NOTHERN REBEL was a sharp winner last time, but it gets tougher here from post 10. Small share predicted for him this time

Race 11

(4) TUXEDO BAY took a bad shuffle in the middle of last week’s mile then had pace late, but the leaders weren’t slowing down. A better trip gets him home. (6) MAROMA BEACH paced a very good mile from the worst post but he was picked off late by a rival that was absolutely flying; using. (9) LONDON SEELSTER was impressive in making two moves to win last week. He’s another that you need on Pick 4 tickets in a very tough race. (2) IN SPADES steps up off a sharp win, but these are much tougher; use underneath. (7) THROWNOUTOFBETTER is another good one to use on the bottom here who will likely be passing rivals late.