Mohawk: Thursday 6/29 Analysis

Best Bet: LADY ELLA (2nd)

Spot Play: PURE KEMP (6th)

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 2,6 / 3 / 1,3,5 / 1,2,5 / 1,3,4,7 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,5 / 1,3,4,7 / 5 / 1,2,8 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,8 / 1,5 / 1,3,4 / 1,4,6 = $54

MEET STATS: 157 - 472 / $893.60 BEST BETS: 21 - 46 / $79.60

SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 46 / $119.70

Race 1

(2) DAWN SHOOTER was a narrow loser twice straight to a classy mare at Georgian and now she comes up tagged here; priced to win; top call. (6) ALWAYS REESE was full of pace late last time when she went on to an easy win. She looks like the main threat to the choice here. (4) BAD AT REDHOT should be closing again to make the ticket. (3) MIRACLE MATTY is in solid form and she is worth a look for the exotics.

Race 2

(3) LADY ELLA was impressive in her debut. She will be odds-on to double up here and likely will convert. (8) SPORTIN THE GOLD is a homebred full-sister to two siblings that both earned more that $100K. She is worth a look for the exacta here making her debut. (7) BOOK THE BET couldn’t keep pace with the choice late last time, but she has a good chance to make the ticket again. (1) MACHNHOPE was 4th to the choice in her debut and she should sit a good enough trip here to make the Super again.

Race 3

(3) COURTNEY HANOVER – a $47K Harrisburg buy – looks ready to roll for owner/trainer/driver Zeron based on her lone qualifier; top call. (1) FORDHAM ROAD – a $40K Lexington purchase – appears to have a lot of speed and will have to be caught here. (5) JOEY BATS was impressive in his lone qualifier. He is another to consider for the Pick 5. (4) KEEP RIGHT looks best of the rest.

Race 4

(5) ABSOLUTE INTENT was no match for a more experienced rival in his debut, but he can build off that and he looks like a top contender here. (2) MACH ONE brings solid form in from Georgian. He should be heard from here. (1) ABBEYDORNEY is due for some better luck; use him in the early Pick 4. (7) MASTER THE VIEW is now 0 for 15, but he will likely be around at the finish as he typically is.

Race 5

(3) IM THE PIED PIPER goes for Moreau/Roy off the claim and he is in great form. He will be tough to beat in here. (7) CROCADILE CANYON woke up last time after hinting at a return to form the previous week; using. (1) BROCKS FORTUNE was claimed off an easy win at Flamboro, but that came vs. much easier. A small share is likely. (4) AMBLE OVER HANOVER is winless this year so far, but he has improving form and he might be worth a stab here if he is in the 12/1 range.

Race 6

(5) PURE KEMP has come up against two very strong foes in both starts so far and she couldn’t get to either in the lane. This spot looks much easier; no excuses here. (4) CARSON HILL is hinting at producing a top effort soon. Maybe he leaves better this time and is closer at the finish. (3) TAMMY JO raced better last time, showing early speed. Roy will likely try to take her all the way here. (9) MASS PSYCHOLOGY can hit the ticket at a price if she can work out a decent trip form this post.

Race 7

(2) SURPRISE HANOVER made a threatening move on the turn last week, then leveled off, likely because the last 1/4 was being paced in 27 2/5. This looks like a much easier spot, but beware taking too low a price on him in the win pool as he always seems to be trip-dependent in any class. (1) BUGGER BRUISER won last time he was in a similar class, albeit at Georgian. He could trip-out near the front here. (8) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE gets to drop here. He fits well and will probably be a square price; using. (5) CHEYENNE FORD is coming back to form it seems. Have a look at him for the exotics.

Race 8

(1) NASCAR SEELSTER motored up late to break his maiden in a Grassroots race last week. These are no tougher; call to repeat. (5) BILLS FELLA was used up early making front and didn’t stop horribly, considering. He could take this with a better trip. (6) CLOUSEAU HANOVER is developing a good late kick and he gets a better post here. He has upset possibilities. (7) FREDDY BEAR has raced well for McNair in two starts. He’s not out of this.

Race 9

(1) OAK ISLAND benefitted from a hot early pace last week, but the way he won suggests that he is improving rapidly; call to repeat. (3) TREMENDOUS PLAY was part of the hot early pace in that race. He can be a lot closer here with less early battling likely. (4) DREAM OF LUCK has improving form and he could take this if he gets the room he will likely need down the lane. (7) MACH DEJA VU was excellent in defeat last time. He could easily better this placing.

Race 10

(6) DORABELLA goes for Waxman off the claim here, which is good an angle as any to use in a race that looks wide-open on paper. (4) LARJON LACHLAN raced well in her first Mohawk start. Toss her on Pick 4 tickets. (1) BAD IN PARADISE won fairly easily last time she raced in this class two starts back; using. (3) MACH MAJORETTE has built up a 10-9-8 record from 46 starts over the past two seasons and she is always passing rivals late; respect her consistency. (2) ZARKANA has come to life in her past two starts. Consider her on wider Pick 4 tickets.