Mohawk: Thursday 5/18 Analysis

Best Bet: HURRICANE BEACH (4th)

Spot Play: BIG RICH (8th)

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 2,4,5,9,10 / 2 / 3,4,5,6 / 7 / 3,5,10 / 1,4,6 = $36

EARLY PICK 4: 7 / 3,5,10 / 1,4,6,7 / 1,5,7,10 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 3,5,6,9 / 5,9 / 2,7 / 2,6 = $32

MEET STATS: 70 - 203 / $423.50

BEST BETS: 9 - 20 / $42.60 SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 20 / $43.30

Race 1

(4) REGAL MAGICIAN – a $72K Harrisburg purchase – wouldn’t need to drop much time to break his maiden at first asking here; top call. (10) ROUTINE raced well on an off track and he has shown good late speed in both his qualifier and lone start so far this year; using. (5) DUNBAR HALL stopped late in his seasonal debut. Perhaps a fast track would give him a better chance here. (9) LADY JUSTICE made some good money last year without winning a race. She should like this maiden company and is another to toss on the Pick 5 ticket.

Race 2

(2) LAWRENCETOWN BEACH was sharp in victory when beating a highly regarded colt last week. If he can come close to replicating that effort, he should repeat here. (1) HAPPY TRIO was a pretty good 2-year-old last year and trainer O’Sullivan typically sends them ready; exacta factor. (4) TWIN B COWBOY had a useful opener and he should improve here. He is another that could make the exacta. (10) SOME ATTITUDE was narrowly beaten by last year’s Metro Stakes winner in his qualifier for this. I prefer to watch from post 10, but he isn’t impossible here.

Race 3

(6) BATOUTAHILL gets a slight nod in a tricky race where she could make the last - and decisive – move. (5) TONY SOPRANO is rounding into form and he is another that could be vaulting past horses late here. (3) MASS PRODUCTION – last year’s ‘O Brien Award winning 2YO trotting colt – obviously has licence to win this, but as we have seen a few times already this spring, some of these types are brought along slowly in these conditioned races leading up to stakes season. (4) SASS qualified well, is capable and has a good partner in Macdonald; using.

Race 4

(7) HURRICANE BEACH will be tough to beat here now that he has a tightener; Pick 4 single. (6) AMERICAN SPORTSMAN suffered interference at the start last time. He is likely capable of much better. (8) BLACKY BLACK has shown good early speed in all of his starts. He is a good bomb to use in the exotics here that could get a good trip near the front. (4) ROCK ON LINE finished okay in his seasonal opener after suffering interference at the start. He is another to consider for vertical bets that could be a big price.

Race 5

(5) AMERICAN CHEER should be better with a start under her belt and this looks like an easier spot; top call. (3) DELIGHTFUL SPACE wasn’t far behind the choice despite starting from the extreme outside post last week. She could turn the tables here with a more aggressive drive. (10) ROSE RUN SAMANTHA qualified well for this and would look more tempting if a catch-driver was listed after scratch time. (1) DREAMFAIR ETERNITY is the first foal of the great Canadian race mare Dreamfair Eternal and she is certainly bred well enough to beat these, but based on her qualifier, I’ll give her one here.

Race 6

(1) CERSEI HANOVER moves to Baillargeon’s barn shipping in off a good effort on April 28th in New Jersey. I can see her taking control of this race on the backside and trotting away to a win. (6) WARRAWEE SHIPSHAPE won his debut last year and Green will likely roll him early here. He is in with a shot and he likely won’t get bet. (4) LITERALLY fits well here, but it’s hard to like her on top with the trainer down to drive. (7) SVENSSON adds Lasix and he should be a speed threat, at a minimum.

Race 7

(7) ALEXA HANOVER has been brought along slowly for top connections, now she picks up the leading driver shipping in to the big track. She’ll need to drop three or four seconds here, but it isn’t out of the question. (5) LOVES ANGEL was running in down the lane last week which likely cost her a win. Take a look at her on the track for clues. (1) BIG CHUTE moved first-up at exactly the worst time when the pace was accelerating noticeably. She could go much better here. (10) GRANNY PANTS has two sharp qualifiers on her card and if Christoforou blasts off the gate with her, she could be right there.

Race 8

(6) BIG RICH was used up early last time, but he has done better in this class in the past; slight nod. (9) WILD AND CRAZY GUY has won from outer posts at big prices here in the past; using. (3) MISTER HERBIE raced okay in his lone start in two years but then got sick and missed some time. He has more than enough speed and class for this group, but it’s hard to predict which Mister Herbie will show up tonight. (5) STREAMSONG ships in with some decent lines and he is an interesting prospect, although it’s hard to say where he fits on this circuit.

Race 9

(9) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER has raced well most of this meet and he closed rapidly in a quick mile for this class last time. I’ll give him the nod, but he will likely be trying to pass most of them starting from out there. (5) INTRIGUED INTENDED takes a big drop back into claimers where he belongs; using. (7) CUNDALINI had a horrid trip last time trying to follow one that was hung the mile. He can be much closer if he uses his good early speed this time. (10) HP BLACK SHADOW is in stellar form currently and he is hard to toss completely, even from out there.

Race 10

(2) MUSICAL RHYTHYM did well to get a check in the Cutler when starting from the 10-hole. With two races under his belt now, the time could be right for him to knock off (7) ODDS ON AMETHYST and end his lengthy win streak. They don’t win forever, but the latter sure has been impressive at this meet and has to be used in the Pick 4. (8) MAJOR ATHENS had a great trip following the winner last week, but he couldn’t chase him down. He is in great form, however, and he wouldn’t be the worst stab if the price is better this time. (3) WINDSUN REVENGE should be much closer here making his third start of the year. He could try to wire these.

Race 11

(2) LEAFS AND WINGS may have won last week if he had a clearer path in the lane. He is always a bit risky because of his racing style, but he is in top shape now and can take this if he has a decent trip. (6) MATRIX OF LUCK ships north and takes a big drop in class moving into the Cullen barn. He will likely try to send him down the road. (4) E R QUINN keeps driver Roy here, which makes him a threat for at least a share in this field. (10) BLISSFUL YEARS drops to the bottom and picks up McNair. He can make the ticket despite drawing outside. (3) SHIPPEN OUT is another that makes a class drop that can factor in the exotics.