Mohawk: Thursday 5/11 Analysis
Best Bet: VILLAGE JAMIE (9th)
Spot Play: AMBLE OVER HANOVER (1st)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,6,7,8,9/1,7/2,7,8/1,4/3,4,5 = $36
EARLY PICK 4: 1,4/3,4,5/2,5/2,3,4,6,8 = $60
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,4,6,8/3,8,9/2/7,8 = $30
MEET STATS: 57 - 161 / $363.80 BEST BETS: 6 - 16 / $33.30
SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 16 / $36.20
Race 1
(1) AMBLE OVER HANOVER picks up McNair here after a lacklustre effort last time when racing first off the claim. The driver has woken many up with worse lines than this gelding so far this year. I'll take a stab here at what could be a big price. (6) R U MACHIN ME is an obvious contender after winning in his first start for Moreau. You have to use him in the Pick 5. (7) HP BLACK SHADOW couldn't fend off a class-dropping winner last time, but these should be easier; using. (8) CUNDALINI is an infrequent winner that rarely misses a check. He is a good one to use on the bottom.
Race 2
(7) LMC MASS GEM accelerated late, but he couldn't quite hold off a promising winner. Roy should be able to send him down the road vs. these. (1) BUSTINATTHESEAMS raced much better last time at a big price. She should contend from close range here. (4) ON FIRST was in great position last week, but he hung in the stretch. I expect him to take another smaller share here. (6) MAJESTIC KAT has some upside and longshot possibilities, but she is likely pointed for Sires Stakes this summer, so she is best used underneath.
Race 3
(7) DEPRIVED finished with enough pace in her debut to suggest she can compete with these. I'll give her a slight nod over (8) LOVES ANGEL, who looks like she could be faster this year based on her two qualifiers. (2) BIG CHUTE closed some ground on a winner that was long gone and now she gets a much better post; using. (3) OK JASMINE may sneak into the Tri or Super at a big price here.
Race 4
(1) ANDERSON SEELSTER has raced against the same unbeaten filly in each of her last two starts, now she faces mostly easier. I'll give her a slight nod over (4) LITTLE HANOVER, who was a very sharp winner in her season's debut when leaving from the 10-hole. (2) THISGIRLISONFIRE is a good one to use on the bottom as she can get a good inside following trip here. (8) SUNSET FILLY showed some ability last year and she may be able to crack the exotics at a decent price.
Race 5
(5) CLASSIC PRO won so easily on a very sloppy track in his sophomore debut last week that he should be tough to beat here. (3) SOUTHWIND DIESEL has won two straight easily and has raced faster than his rivals. Toss him on Pick 4 bets. (4) REBELLIOUS was a sharp winner racing out of trainer Zeron's barn for the first time last week. He too is in with a shot in what should be an interesting tilt. (8) KAZIMOTO figures to rally for a share.
Race 6
(2) AWOL HANOVER has been outstanding so far in two starts this year and it makes sense that he will win through his conditions on his way to stakes season. (5) PAMPERED IN PINK was a sharp winner from the worst post last time and trainer Vanderkemp seems to have her figured out. Don't take her lightly here. (3) P C FOREIGN AFFAIR could show sharp improvement here moving inside and making his 2nd start of the year. (7) ROSE RUN REANNA never wins but she can make the Super as she has been doing regularly for the past month.
Race 7
(4) BAD IN PARADISE went a long trip on a very sloppy track and didn't fare horribly considering. That was her first start for trainer Bourassa. If he has her straightened out, she could take these at a good price. (8) FLIGHT OF AN ANGEL drops back into a conditioned claimer where she won two back. A similar strong finish puts her right there vs. these. (2) JEMMA JEMMA raced well for McNair last time considering her long trip. Toss her in the Pick 4 mix. (3) STRIKE A CHORD drops, gets Lasix and goes for a hot barn. She is another that is worthy of Pick 4 consideration.
Race 8
(9) DREAM MASSIVE has finished well in both his starts, but he couldn't get close to a very strong winner last time. He can break through here if he is close enough to the leaders at the 3/4 pole. (8) WESLYNN DANCER went a big uncovered trip last time, but the winner followed her and was just too strong in the lane. She rates highly here. (3) ICE HOCKEY HANOVER is one-for-one on a fast track, but that was the only chance he had to race on a dry track so far. If the rain holds off, he could be tough in here. (4) JUST FOR YOU raced well in poor conditions in her seasonal debut. She should take a share here.
Race 9
(2) VILLAGE JAMIE signaled that she's ready for her sophomore campaign with a fast blowout win at Flamboro a week ago. She could be very tough on the engine here. (3) AMERICAN CHEER used a powerful second 1/4 brush to take control of her qualifier on April 28th. She looks like a top contender. (4) WAY BETTOR was motoring late last week, but she was too far back. She shouldn't be taken lightly, but she needs to be positioned better early in the mile. (8) DELIGHTFUL SPACE ships into Mohawk with an unbeaten record, but it will be hard for her to knock off all of the top three.
Race 10
(7) MEABRACH looked like a different - and much improved - racehorse when winning for new connections last week. The price will drop considerably here, but he could be good for another. (8) WINNING DRIVE was used up early from the 10-hole last time, but notice the strong closing effort two back. He could provide some great value; using. (5) FOUR CARD MAJOR had perfect cover from the eventual winner Monday night, but he hung. If he goes on short rest here, he is more likely to take another minor share. (4) MAMMOTH JACK raced okay first up in his Mohawk debut. He can grab a slice. (3) ASTERISM is another that figures to make the ticket racing close to the front.
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