Mohawk: Thursday 4/28 Analysis
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,5,7,9/2/3,6,10/1,3,5,7/1,6 = $19.20
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,5,7/6/4,5,7,8/1,3,8 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 1,3,8/2,3,10/7,8,9/4 = $27
MEET STATS: 42 - 121 / $236.70 BEST BETS: 8 - 12 / $37.60
SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 12 / $7.10
Best Bet: MAJOR HILL (10th)
Spot Play: MUSCLE AVE (6th)
Race 1
(5) NOW AND AGAIN closed quickly against a debut winner that repeated in her second start. This Big Jim filly can go forward off that promising initial start; top call. (1) ITSALLABOUTTHATBASS showed some ability in a brief rookie campaign last year and this is a good spot to make her sophomore debut. (7) SHOCKING BEAUTY made a quick move to the front last week that she couldn't sustain, but should be even sharper now and is a threat.
Race 2
(2) MISSION MAN was passing horses as the pace was accelerating in his second lifetime start and can be a big threat here if he reproduces that effort and late speed. (3) RUSTY HEFNER finished ahead of the choice in the same dash, which was raced in good time for this class. (7) GIANT MUSCLES re-qualified well and can contend here if he can stay flat.
Race 3
(6) FLOWERS N SONGS went a big winning trip from the 10-hole last week in her second start over Mohawk, which makes her the one to beat in this stakes series final. (3) WINDSONG MAGIC set soft fractions but was picked off easily by the choice down the lane. This filly might be better stalking the leaders. (10) WANAKA should get a more aggressive steer here, but the 10-hole might be too much to overcome.
Race 4
(1) BROOKDALE SONNY was way too far back last time and should be much closer early here starting from the inside, which gives him a good chance to collar these late. (7) CAJON THOMAS was a sharp second in the same dash in a career-best performance. He is one of several that can threaten here. (5) ADRIAN HANOVER qualified faster than most of these race, which makes him a big threat.
Race 5
(6) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT was a winner here last week after going a big trip in defeat the previous week; call to repeat. (1) PRINCE SHARKA closed for second behind the choice after getting stuck behind bad cover. He could turn the tables with the right trip. (3) LISVINNIE has taken slices in half his starts this year and is a good bet to do the same here.
Race 6
(8) MUSCLE AVE was a sharp second in his 2016 debut for a stable that has been sending everything ready lately; top call. (5) TOUGH AFFAIR disappointed as choice in her seasonal debut but may have needed that start; using. (4) DYNAMIC EDGE also makes her second start of the year and the early speed she showed last week can play well here.
Race 7
(8) QUEEN IDEAL was flying late last week and need only be put into the race earlier here to get the job done. (1) THIS DAY FORWARD was a solid second in her seasonal debut but continues to be a bit of a money burner. (3) TONKA GIRL is a 1/2 to several winners including local horse Joshua My Boy. She could pop at a price in her first time out.
Race 8
(2) WILL TAKE CHARGE raced against the best last year and qualified powerfully in his sophomore debut. If he is close enough turning home, he should beat these. (3) P L JERICO was a sharp maiden-breaker last week and is the main danger. (10) ZAGSTER raced well despite some long journeys in the Tie Silk series and can't be dismissed even with the worst post.
Race 9
(8) LUMIERE was a victim of his own aggression last week when he got picked off after putting up a huge 3/4 fraction for this class. Trainer Laroque claimed him right back after one start and he looks tough in here. (9) MEERSBURG had no shot tracking a snail's pace at Flamboro last time. He has upset possibilities here. (7) DISTINCTIV RUSTY takes a class plunge here and should fit this class.
Race 10
(4) MAJOR HILL faces maidens for the first time and brings a swift qualifier with him. He should be tough to beat here in his sophomore debut. (1) NOTETOSELF HANOVER finished quickly in both qualifiers and can take a big piece of this purse. (3) CENTURY CHURCHILL makes the lower exotic rungs frequently and should do so here off a following trip near the front. (8) AZUL POOL looks sharp and goes for a trainer that sends them ready off the shelf. He could better this prediction. (7) THREE RIVERS DELL faced some good ones in his qualifier, which is probably better than it looks on paper. Toss him on Super and High-5 bets.
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