Mohawk: Thursday 4/27 Analysis
Best Bet: LITTLE HANOVER (4th)
Spot Play: LET EM BOUNCE (10th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4,6,7/2,3,5/5,9/10/2,3,6,7 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 10/2,3,6,7/4,6,8,10/2,5,6 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 2,5,6/4,5,6/1,4,8/4 = $27
MEET STATS: 23 - 80 / $115.00 BEST BETS: 2 - 8 / $8.30
SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 8 / $20.00
Race 1
(4) CASIMIR PUCKER UP knows where the wire is and she has the best recent form of these. I'll give her the nod over (7) FLIGHT OF AN ANGEL, who improved in her most recent Flamboro start, now picks up driver Roy. (6) JENS CREDIT is worth a look here changing barns and going from a trainer with 12 lifetime wins to one that has recorded more than 1900 victories. (2) KIMBERLYS BABY will provide some early zip, but she will likely only stay for a smaller share.
Race 2
(3) PARADISE IMAGE kicked home in 28 2/5 in her lone qualifier this spring, signalling readiness. She is a full sister to several winners and she can get on track here. (2) LMC MASS GEM was no match for a strong, well-meant winner last week, but he should go forward off that season's debut; using. (5) PARKHILL NONSTOP makes his sophomore debut for a trainer that excels with young trotters. He might be hard to catch. (4) MR HOUDINI closed nicely in his Mohawk debut. He can grab another slice here.
Race 3
(5) ROSELILY continues to roll right along and she can keep her win streak alive here vs. many of the same rivals she beat last week. (9) TALBOT CHANEL has an impressive Mohawk win on her resume last July 19th when she closed like she was shot out of a rocket launcher. Her April 21st qualifier signals readiness; exacta factor. (1) FADE may have disliked the slop last week, but she is still only 1 for 9 lifetime and she must deal with the choice again. (8) CLEAR IDEA is in solid form and she is likely to be a nice price again. Keep her in mind when making Tri and Super bets.
Race 4
(10) LITTLE HANOVER - a full sister to Odds On Equuleus (18 wins, $918K, 1:47 3/5) - paced a phenomenal 55 2/5 middle half on a track rated two seconds slow in her April 21st qualifier, then she coasted home. If this filly makes front before the 1/4, this race is likely over. (1) THE SECOND STAR closed sharply in her debut and she is an obvious contender, but the choice could get a big jump on her early. (2) WAY BETTOR had a confidence building win in London, but the top two will likely be a bit too much for her here; small share predicted. (4) PLAY N DELIVER is unbeaten in 2017, but she would have to drop about six seconds to get close to the top two.
Race 5
(7) SOUTHWIND DIESEL powered away to a new life's mark on a sloppy track rated off by two seconds last week. He will be tough right back, likely at a short price. (6) DREAMFAIR B J had a useful opener himself and he could get a sweet trip in the choice's pocket here. He's the other one I will use in multi-race bets. (3) KAZIMOTO should start better and get a better result here. (2) HEZA BIG DEALER took a new life's mark off a great trip last week, but he is unlikely to get a similarly good trip here; small share predicted.
Race 6
(4) WESLYNN DANCER has missed some time, but maybe trainer Bax has her gait issues fixed; slight nod hoping she stays flat. (10) ICE HOCKEY HANOVER steps up off a sharp win and he has enough gate speed to get well-positioned early here; using. (8) SVENSSON's task was made impossible by the way the leader accelerated in the final 1/4 last time. He is in with a decent chance here. (6) VASCO BI goes for connections that click for a decent R.O.I. He is worth a look at a price.
Race 7
(2) SAULSBROOK LANNY raced for the first time out of his owner/breeder/trainer's barn on April 16th at Flamboro and he produced an impressive win. He should offer some value here and a repeat is very possible. (5) LAWRENCETOWN BEACH was airborne late last week, but that closing burst is likely to be shown on the pre-game show which will kill his odds. I'll use him in the Pick 4s and hope to beat him just the same. (6) HERMANUS set a strong early pace last time and just failed to hold late. Roy returns and he is a multi-race must-use for me. (7) APHRO STAR is a longshot possibility shipping in for trainer Larocque here.
Race 8
(4) PRINCE CLYDE was part of a three-pronged early battle for the lead last week. He then tried to advance again on the outside, but the winner was too tough. He could be a square price here and he projects to get a good trip near the front. (5) TOTALLY KISSED was one of few that closed a bit in that race. He has a decent shot in here. (6) E R QUINN was in the early mix with the choice last time and he hung on for third. He should be gunning again and could break his 2017 goose egg here. (2) SURF REPORT can follow along then re-emerge late for a share.
Race 9
(8) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER is razor sharp at the moment and he has enough speed to overcome this post; a three-peat looms. (1) BLUE LINE improved dramatically off the claim last time. I have to toss him in the late Pick 4 off that race. (4) STONEBRIDGE FABLE has raced well for Moreau/Roy in two starts since being claimed. He is another that merits Pick 4 inclusion. (3) JET BLACK CADILLAC almost pulled off a rare win last week. He should take another small share here.
Race 10
(4) LET EM BOUNCE picks up Roy after being claimed and moves into a much weaker conditioned claimer. He should prove tough to beat. (3) ROYAL MACHERY may not have liked the slop last week. He can rebound with a better effort here. (10) WINNING DRIVE is in solid form and he should offer some exotics value from this post. (2) OFORPETESAKE rarely misses a check. Use him in Supers and High 5 plays. (1) BADSTORMANYPORT is another good one to use on the bottom of vertical wagers.
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