Mohawk: Thursday 10/5 Analysis
Best Bet: IM WITH HER (2nd)
Spot Play: SPARK A DREAM (1st)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,5,7/2/1,2,3/2,6,7,8/3,5,9 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 2,6,7,8/3,5,9/2/3,4,7,8 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 3,4,7,8/1,5/5,6/6,8,9 = $48
MEET STATS: 378 - 1148 / $2,089.80 BEST BETS: 50 - 110 / $175.90
SPOT PLAYS: 35 - 110 / $213.00
Race 1
(2) SPARK A DREAM gets a notable driver change here after a decent effort vs. most of these last time; top call. (7) T BARRR made two moves then drew off to a big win last time, now he gets McNair back. This improving gelding might be the one to beat here. (5) BARNEY MAC is another that picks up a catch-driver here that merits respect. (3) PERFETTO inexplicably had nothing last time when wildly overbet. I'll play to beat him again here.
Race 2
(2) IM WITH HER flew home to just miss last time and the rival that beat her would likely be a big chalk in here. She can handle these. (5) PRECISION HANOVER was third to a rival that would also be heavily-bet if she were in this field. She should be a contender here. (3) FOR THE RECORD got a better trip last time and came away with a win. She can contend again here from close range. (4) MITTANY NICOLE should take another small slice here.
Race 3
(3) LEVITATION blew up long before the start last time and didn't make it to the fair start pole. While he is obviously risky, he is also likely best of this bunch if he stays trotting. (1) COUSIN RICKARD raced great from the 10 hole last time when coming off a short break; using. (2) CHIEF JUSTICE gets driver Macdonald back following a decent try with him at the controls last week. He is in with a decent shot here. (5) DRAFT YEAR should share here if he stays flat this time.
Race 4
(8) NIPS BEACH GIRL is a good bet to take these coast-to-coast here on the class drop. (2) DOCS SAUSALITO takes an even bigger drop and she is hard to leave off multi-race tickets racing at this level. (6) GOLDIES BAD GIRL is worth a look going for trainer Moreau off the claim. (7) JORDIES HOPE is another class dropper worthy of exotics consideration here.
Race 5
(3) D M OREILLY left, yielded then finished evenly as the pace accelerated late. That was a good first try over this track and I'll give him the nod here. (5) JM JACK OF HEARTS finished decently in the Grassroots final and he can contend here. (9) INTRIGUED AGAIN is flashing excellent late speed, but you have to wonder if he will be close enough at the 3/4 pole to capitalize while racing against some elders. (2) KINGSTON SEELSTER could wake up with the barn change here.
Race 6
(2) CARDIFF was beaten by a sharp rival in a good effort last time. She should be tough in here. (3) EASY THREE is racing well now and she won't be held off for much longer; using. (5) JUST HER LUCK has missed some time and although she figures on paper, she could be overbet here dropping out of the OSS Gold. (7) DELANEY R should be better here returning much quicker this time; using.
Race 7
(4) ON FIRST looks best here if he can stay trotting this time. (3) HAB FAITH has come around in her last couple of starts and she can make some noise here. (7) MORE THAN MAJESTIC is worth a look here off a much-improved effort and he could be a big price again. (8) SHORT TERM MEMORY could get a more aggressive steer here which puts him in the picture.
Race 8
(1) PERCY BLUECHIP was on way too much cover last time in the Shes A Great Lady stakes to have any real chance, but she did pace home strongly and she should get a much-improved trip here; top call. (5) KENDALL SEELSTER couldn't reach the winner late, but she is a strong player in this field. (2) FIRESTORM is improving, but the top two may still be too good for her at this point. (3) PLAY THE BELL can stick around for a small slice here.
Race 9
(5) BLURRED is one I'll take a stab on in a race where nothing stands out. Trainer Bax and driver Byron have teamed up for a few big upsets in the past and this well-bred filly could wake up with no notice. (6) MASS PSYCHOLOGY came close last time now she gets a catch-driver replacing the trainer. She is an obvious contender, but she may be overbet here. (1) WIN CHASER faces elders but he could trip out for a small share here starting from the inside and with a driver change. (2) LADY JUSTICE could not threaten last time despite having perfect cover in front of her. She could be a vulnerable favorite again here.
Race 10
(6) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER finished fastest last time, but, he was free too late to catch the winner. He can get there this time with a bit of racing luck. (9) SKY GUY opened up a big gap and held on, then was claimed. He's a big threat right back here. (8) INTENDED STYLE improved last time and he could pop here if he works out a good trip. Notice he has won more than a third of his starts this year. (3) OAKROCK ELDORADO brings good form with him from Kawartha making his first start off a claim and he can make the ticket here despite facing tougher. (7) CHOSEN HOMBRE is another invader that is worth a look for the lower rungs of the exotics.
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