Mohawk: Thursday 10/12 Analysis
Best Bet: THATGIRLISONFIRE (7th)
Spot Play: KAMERAN HANOVER (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4,7/1,3,6,7/1,2,6/2,3,6/3,5,7 = $43.20
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,6/3,5,7/3,7,8/7
LATE PICK 4: 7/1,5,8/2,3,7,8/4,9 = $24
MEET STATS: 387 - 1198 / $2,136.50 BEST BETS: 52 - 115 / $182.50
SPOT PLAYS: 36 - 115 / $219.10
Race 1
(4) CHIEF JUSTICE is the logical horse to beat finally racing in a maiden conditioned race; top call. (7) STORMONT ROYALTY raced gamely last time, but couldn't repel a persistent first-over challenger. She is a top contender here. (1) MASS PSYCHOLOGY figures on form, but her 0-17 record doesn't inspire confidence. (8) ELUSIVE MISTRESS is worth a look for the bottom of exotic wagers.
Race 2
(6) YACHT SEELSTER got hung out at London when the pace accelerated and understandably tired. His debut race two starts back was very good. I'll give him the nod here. (7) D M OREILLY was a game 2nd last time. He'll get there soon. (1) DISMISSAL SLIP beat the choice two starts back and he will contend here if he can stay flat this time. (3) IOWA NEIGHTIVE closed a big gap in the stretch last time. He's not out of this.
Race 3
(1) KAMERAN HANOVER was a powerful winner last time he had an inside post. Sharp improvement is expected here. (6) HILL YES comes back home off a win at the Red Mile and he should be a speed threat here. (2) DUNBAR HALL races better using a closing style and he should be passing horses late again. (5) I JASMIN can take a smaller share as is her custom most of the time.
Race 4
(3) BIG TSUNAMI gets a lukewarm call based on the class drop here. (6) MYSTICAL WONDER is sent out by a barn that has done well of late; using. (2) DOCS SAUSALITO raced okay in her first start in this class and she merits multi-race inclusion. (1) NIPS BEACH GIRL will be an early threat, but she appears to have declining form now.
Race 5
(5) TREASURE WRITER missed a month prior to his last start in which he raced evenly. In a race with few apparent contenders, I'll land here, hoping for a price. (3) SOUTHWIND MORROCAN took big action in his debut, but broke and lost all hope. He could bounce back here. (7) SUPERSPORT gets Roy shipping in with good form; using. (9) SEARCH THE LANDS can make the ticket passing some of these late.
Race 6
(8) ODD BALL can produce a terrific closing burst when he is in form and based on his October 3rd qualifier, I'll take a stab here. He should be a good price. (7) ICE HOCKEY HANOVER is cycling towards a top performance and likely a win; maybe tonight? (3) P L KETCHUP steps up off a strong win and he can't be dismissed. (5) MUSCLE MUSEUM was set back last week, but the effort was good and he can hit the ticket here, at a minimum.
Race 7
(7) THATGIRLISONFIRE moves into Moreau's barn coming off a race where she had an adventurous trip. I'll single her in this spot expecting an aggressive steer from Roy. (8) NO PANIC is in solid form and she should be closing for a good chunk of this. (3) JIMMYS LITTLE GIRL can hit the board off another good following trip. (1) EVERY TIME should improve with the move inside; consider for exotics.
Race 8
(5) FONDUE could get a super trip here stalking a couple of speedsters; top call. (8) MUSCLE HIGH was a sharp front-end winner vs. similar last time, but he may be compromised by (1) CHARMBO CHROME, who also likes to blast. (3) ITS HALLRIGHT is a solid bet to make the Tri or Super here.
Race 9
(8) TEARFUL OF HAPPY raced very well last time cutting through a strong headwind in the stretch to nab third. She could be a square price here starting from the outer post; slight nod. (7) AMERICAN CHEER steps up off a powerful lifetime best win and she could be the one to beat. (2) STELLENBOSCH faces easier and she is another that could take this with the right trip. (3) COULD DIVA figures for a smaller share vs. these.
Race 10
(4) CHARMBO ORBIT finally draws an inside post and he should be a good price facing several that are making their first start off claims. (9) SKY GUY is in top form and goes for Auciello off a claim; the one to catch. (10) PLAY IT AGAIN SAM goes back to Moreau - who had a win and a 2nd with him in two starts in September. He should make the ticket, but I will play against to win from out there. (8) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER is in solid form and he should take a share racing off the claim. (1) J J MYSTIC STORM rarely misses a check. Use him underneath.
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