Mohawk: Saturday 9/23 Analysis
Best Bet: KENDALL SEELSTER (6th)
Spot Play: EAST END (12th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,5/2,3,4,8/4,7,8/2,3,4,5/8 = $19.20
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,4,5/8/1/2,3,5,6 = $16
LATE PICK 4: 3,4/2,3,4,5/2,5/1,4,5,8 = $64
MEET STATS: 360 - 1055 / $1,998.70 BEST BETS: 47 - 102 / $163.00
SPOT PLAYS: 35 - 102 / $213.00
Race 1
(5) WRANGLER MAGIC got embroiled in an insane early pace in the Milton Final and she had nothing left for the drive. She can rebound here and she figures to get a better trip. (2) L A DELIGHT has hit the top of her game and she won't be held off much longer. She figures to take a lot of play here. (4) PENPAL steps up off a blowout win, but she isn't out of place here. (3) LYONS RIVER PRIDE grabbed a check in the Milton, passing rivals late. She can make the ticket here, too.
Race 2
(3) PENZANCE HANOVER was used up early in the Simcoe, but this is a much better spot for him and I'll give him the nod here. (8) SAULSBROOK LANNY benefitted from a hot early pace last time, but he still won comfortably and he is a player here considering his current sharpness. (4) MC MACH is in a better spot here and he should be heard from. (2) BETTORS DREAM should move up with Tetrick taking the reins here.
Race 3
(7) MAJOR HILL drops to a logical spot here; look for Drury to send him hard off the gate. (4) P L JACKSON was a good 2nd at this level two starts back; using. (8) NO BU gets Miller back for a second drive and he drops a level; consider at a price. (3) VELOCITY DRIVEN can close for a smaller share at this level.
Race 4
This might be a good spot for (4) THIS IS THE PLAN to break his maiden. He is sharp enough. He just needs some racing luck. (3) PRO BEACH appeared to be loaded with no room last week, but that is sure to get overplayed on the pre-game show and he will probably get overbet here. (2) SHADOW MOON is an honest trier that should bounce back here. (5) DRAGON TIME will likely get put into play early here which gives him a shot in this wide-open race.
Race 5
(8) DR J HANOVER - the all-age track record holder here - drops into a spot where he should have no trouble converting. (2) REGAL SON comes off another solid effort and he keeps Gingras; using. (5) ASAP HANOVER held on decently considering the swift fractions he cut last time. A different and easier trip should get him close here. (3) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN steps up off a win that was a bit lucky; small share predicted.
Race 6
We had an idea how good (1) KENDALL SEELSTER might be when she blew older foes away from the 10-hole on August 1st. She's made more than $200K in four races since and is a Grand Circuit winner and she gets top billing here. (6) SIDEWALK DANCER shoots for six straight wins here and she has the speed to compete. (7) PERCY BLUECHIP had her unbeaten streak stopped by the choice last time, now she has missed three weeks. I'll play to beat her again here. (4) COME SEE THE SHOW is another that has shown she can compete with these. This should be a good race.
Race 7
(5) TOM HILL was a winner in this class two back and dropping back down gives him a good chance to repeat that victory here. (6) MAGNUM J is sharp as a tack and he also drops. Use him in the early Pick 4. (2) CHAMPAGNE PHIL was unlucky last time, losing to a rival that had a clear path up the inside. He may find one or both of the top two a bit too tough here. (3) PAPARAZZI HANOVER is another that is dropping in class that merits a look here.
Race 8
(3) ARSENAL SEELSTER should get a better trip closer to the lead here and if he does, he is a good bet to convert. (4) NASCAR SEELSTER faced better in the Simcoe and he wasn't disgraced. He is a top contender here. (1) RED JOHN is another who should get away better here and he is in with an upset chance. (5) MACH MESSIER is always around the fringes it seems.
Race 9
(5) LOST IN TIME paced too good to lose in his elimination, but he still managed to draw a good post and he gets top call here on the assumption he will get a much better trip. (3) TWIN B TUFFENUFF could get a golden tow here and he is peaking at the right time. He should be a good price, too. (2) STAY HUNGRY has done nothing wrong and it's hard to fault the fastest horse that is also unbeaten but the choice was more impressive in defeat last week, in my opinion. (4) PEDRO HANOVER is another that is impossible to fault at this point and this race is likely to come down to trip.
Race 10
(5) EVENIN OF PLEASURE got back on track last time when switched to Cullen's barn and he took a new life's mark in the process; call to repeat. (2) SINTRA rarely loses in classes like these and he is obviously the one to beat. (1) EASY LOVER HANOVER and (6) NIRVANA SEELSTER are two speed threats that can hang around for slices.
Race 11
(5) EXHILARATED steps back up off a loss, however, she should be able to find a helmet to follow here and her price will be better; slight nod. (4) HEELS ON THE BEACH comes off a quick win out of town and she could take these a long way on the lead here. (1) RIDE AWAY SHARK and (8) BOURBON SEELSTER both merit respect here dropping in class and either can win with a decent trip in this contentious dash.
Race 12
(4) EAST END had a horrible trip last week but he returns quicker here and gets a better post; top call here. (1) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS is another that should get a much easier trip here and he is the main danger. (3) IDEAL JET figures in this class and he should be prominent throughout. (5) FIRST CAR will likely pepper the pace early, the question is, how long will he last? (6) BALLERAT BOOMERANG should be good for a share racing at this level.
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