Mohawk: Saturday 9/16 Analysis
Best Bet: PURE COUNTRY (7th)
Spot Play: TWIN B TUFFENUFF (6th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4,5,7/5/3,4/2,4,6,8/2,3,4,5 = $19.20
EARLY PICK 4: 2,4,6,8/2,3,4,5/1,3,7/3 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 2,7,9/3,5/2,3/1,5,6 = $36
MEET STATS: 347 - 1011 / $1,910.20 BEST BETS: 46 - 98 / $159.70
SPOT PLAYS: 34 - 97 / $196.70
Race 1
(7) PHYSICALLYINCLINED drops back to a spot where he should be prominent throughout and he can break through here for his first win of the season. (4) CHAMPAGNE PHIL roared home last week in this class and he is the one to fend off late here. (5) ROCKIN FINISH is worth a look at a price here leaving from a good post. When he wins, he usually pays big. (1) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN has seen better days, but his last effort was okay and he is worth a look for the exotics here.
Race 2
(5) PEDRO HANOVER looks best in this Metro Stakes elimination and he likely converts at a short price. (1) PHIL THE THRILL has progressed nicely and he is a hard trier that is worth a look here. (8) DECLAN SEELSTER is one of the best in here, but post may be his undoing vs. these. (4) ST LADS NEPTUNE has been impressive so far, but he gets the acid test here and he will need to be much faster vs. these.
Race 3
(4) ARIANA G continues to dominate her own age gender and she will be very tough to beat here. (3) DREAM TOGETHER was an impressive winner in her elimination and Dube sticks here. If there is going to be an upsetter, it's her. (7) MAGIC PRESTO is always a factor for the exotics. (1) WINTER SWEET FROST has raced much better since changing barns a few starts back. She can make the ticket here.
Race 4
(6) DRAGON TIME has picked up his game a notch with Gingras driving. I'll give him a slight nod in this very contentious field. (4) SHADOW MOON is a head away from having a perfect record and he has proven he is versatile; using. (2) STAY HUNGRY has shown promise in his only two starts and he is another in with a shot here. (8) SUMMER TRAVEL is unbeaten and obviously one of the best in his division, but this is no easy spot and I'll take a stand against him here coming off a 37-day break.
Race 5
(4) WHAT THE HILL was nailed late in his elimination, but he likely needed the race and his price will go up here; nod. (2) BILLS MAN powered up late to nail the choice and he gets a good post to work from here. He is the one to fend off late. (3) DOVER DAN may be the “now” horse and he certainly merits respect off his solid elimination win. (5) INTERNATIONAL MONI hasn't looked great in either Mohawk start, but it's hard to dismiss him.
Race 6
(7) TWIN B TUFFENUFF is one I have had my eye on who has been full of pace late in his miles. The worry here is that he drops way back again from this post, but I'll stick with him if I can get 6/1 again or so hoping they leave a bit this time. (1) BURN OUT HANOVER looks like he has been perfectly prepped to try the big stage here; using. (3) DORSORDURO HANOVER was used up early last time in a sires stakes championship. He should get an easier trip here and he figures to be right there. (6) TRUMP THAT has never missed the exacta, but these are a bit tougher. He should at least make the Super here.
Race 7
(3) PURE COUNTRY paced a sensational mile in her elimination, taking no prisoners and cutting big fractions and she still held on. MacDonald is driving her with great confidence; top call here. (6) DARLINONTHEBEACH is capable of better and she should get a more aggressive steer here; using in the Pick 4. (1) LADY SHADOW had little resistance to offer last time racing out of a new barn. I'll play to beat her in this spot. (2) BLUE MOON STRIDE was a solid elimination winner and she could better this prediction.
Race 8
(2) BEAST MODE moves inside following a great try from the 10-hole. Look for Henry to try to take control of this race early. (9) MAJOR HILL drops and he should be prominent here racing near the lead. (7) REGAL SON was deftly handled by Gingras to win last week and he takes a return steer here; using. (4) P L JACKSON should be good for a slice racing near the leader here.
Race 9
(3) PASITHEA FACE S was passively driven from an outer post in her elimination and she still qualified for this final, despite having traffic issues at the head of the lane. Expect a big try here and note she has already handled favorite (5) HANNELORE HANOVER the last time they met in a final on Hambletonian day. The latter is obviously a top contender, but what price will you take? (8) HOMICIDE HUNTER raced well in his elimination coming off a break. He can hit the ticket here. (4) MAMBO LINDY took advantage of the two heavy favorites faltering to score an upset in his elimination, but, he likely won't be as lucky here; small share predicted.
Race 10
(2) JINS SHARK drops and Miller drove him well to win two starts back; top call. (3) ELLIS PARK is also dropping and he figures, but he does get a lot of bad trips it seems at times. (8) TOM HILL is in great form and hard to leave off the ticket despite stepping up in class. (1) FINE DIAMOND should rally again to hit the ticket.
Race 11
(1) SOUTHWIND DEISEL was the only survivor of some big early fractions last time. He should get an easier trip here which gives him a good shot vs. these. (5) OCEAN COLONY rallied well behind a long-gone winner last week. He is worth a long look here. (6) RED JOHN has stepped up his game in his last two starts and he will be coming late here. (3) TYMAL PEACEMAKER should take a share here racing from close range.
Race 12
(7) EAST END drops and gets Lasix. Sharp improvement here wouldn't be a surprise. (4) FIRST CAR moves inside and he will be the one to catch. (5) COMPANY MAN steps up off a sharp win, but he merits respect as he has beaten better than these before. (2) PAR INTENDED will be closing again for a slice. (3) MACHAL JORDAN returns quickly but faces tougher; small share predicted for him.
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