Mohawk: Saturday 7/29 Analysis
Best Bet: P L IDAHO (8th)
Spot Play: WANDA BAYAMA (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,4/1,4/5,8/2,8,9/1,2,3,4,5
EARLY PICK 4: 2,8,9/1,3,4/1,6,7/3,5 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 3,5/1,3,5,6/3,6,8/2,10 = $48
MEET STATS: 224 - 682 / $1,248.50 BEST BETS: 29 - 67 / $103.70
SPOT PLAYS: 28 - 67 / $157.10
Race 1
(2) MACHAL JORDAN drops to the same level he won at and moves inside. Dropping and popping is his game; top call. (1) REGAL SON also drops a level, but off a solid effort. He's a Pick 5 must-use for me. (4) SOUTHWIND MASIMO is dropping furthest here and he is sure to get an aggressive steer, but he could be over bet. (6) MACH PRIDE is typically good for a small share at this level.
Race 2
(4) NIRVANA SEELSTER has never been better and he is the controlling speed again in here. (1) MCWICKED couldn't catch the choice last time, but he's the main threat again here. (5) JINS SHARK has won at a price coming off a break before; consider. (2) FOOL ME ONCE looks best of the rest.
Race 3
(5) RED JOHN has improved dramatically in the past few weeks. I'll give him the nod here. (8) DREAMFAIR B J raced tough vs. a sharp winner last time. He's a threat to go all the way on the lead here. (4) SOME ATTITUDE is in solid form and he should hit the board, at a minimum. (6) FANCOURT can also take a slice here if he stays on stride this time.
Race 4
(8) WANDA BAYAMA was test-driven by Cullen last week and she did have some pace on the end of her mile. I'm expecting an aggressive try here. (9) WITCH DALI drops and she should get put into play early here; using. (2) BUTTERMILK HANOVER adds Lasix following a drab performance. She can bounce back here and she'll likely be a price. (1) BAROCKEY is a threat from close range, but a smaller share seems likely.
Race 5
(4) TOOT TOOT N was pounded at the windows last week but he was too far back early to make an impression. Dropping a class gives him a chance to make amends here. (3) PAPARAZZI HANOVER went too fast early last time. He's in with a shot here dropping a level and he could get a breather vs. these. (1) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS is dangerous facing easier here; using. (6) MCKINNEY should take a share racing from close range here.
Race 6
(1) HOMEY JOE finished like a wild horse in his two wins in early July before trying Indiana Sires Stakes company. He should be a square price here and get some pace to chase. (6) MAROMA BEACH is developing nicely and he could be the one to beat here. (7) NASCAR SEELSTER goes for four straight here following an OSS win when returning from a bout of lameness. He's another one you need on Pick 4 tickets here. (2) DREAM OF LUCK should be a threat racing from close range, but beating them all is doubtful in this spot.
Race 7
(5) PRESCOTTS HOPE drops to a level where he should be tough and Hudon will put him into the race early, no doubt; top call. (3) BLATANTLY BEST also drops and he is dangerous too in this spot. (7) SPORTS COLUMN got untracked with Lasix added last time, but this is no easy spot and he obviously has bigger fish to fry; smaller share predicted. (2) WINDSONG LEO is coming into his best form and he's worth a look here at a price.
Race 8
(1) P L IDAHO paced his back 1/2 in 53 4/5 last week, but he couldn't reach the strong winner late. He has never been better and he should take beating here. (5) MAGNUM J requalified sharply with McNair driving and he sticks here; using. (3) AWSOMENESS is worth a look based on his final quarters alone. (6) TRACEUR HANOVER drops and he is another that is dangerous in a contentious tilt.
Race 9
(3) FIRST CAR showed nothing last week, but he drops and moves inside and he can rebound with a better effort here. (8) MOHAWK WARRIOR still has a goose egg in the 2017 win column, but he won't get a better chance than this and he will get an aggressive drive here. (6) ASLAN took some action off the shelf and converted now he moves up, but he could be better this week and he should bring a good price this time. (2) BURNING SHORE is good for a smaller share here.
Race 10
(2) DAYLIGHT RUSH moves up off a sharp win, but he figures to get a good trip on or near the lead here; call to repeat. (10) DOVUTO HANOVER is another that should be up on the pace most of the way and he is a big threat to repeat despite his post. (4) PAR INTENDED is worth a look here as the closer most likely to benefit if there is any early battling. (7) SHADOW MARGEAUX and (1) E L WILD SPIRIT are good ones to use underneath in Tri, Super and High 5 bets.
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