Mohawk: Saturday 7/15 Analysis
Best Bet: MCWICKED (2nd)
Spot Play: WEATHERLY (11th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1,3,6/1/1,2,4,5/1,3,4,6/2,6 = $19.20
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,4,6/2,6/5,6/5,6 = $32
LATE PICK 4: 6/1,5/1,2,4,5,6,7/1,6,8 = $36
MEET STATS: 189 - 585 / $1030.60 BEST BETS: 25 - 58 / $92.80
SPOT PLAYS: 25 - 58 / $137.30
Race 1
(6) DUNVEGAN DON raced okay vs. better last week, but he couldn't keep up to a runaway leader in the third 1/4. He has a decent chance to sit a winning trip near the front here. I'll give him the nod. (3) SASS rebounded in a big way with an easy win against weaker last week, but he is capable of moving up again and staying competitive. (1) READY ANY TIME crushed his foes with a new life's mark last week, but he was allowed to carve very easy fractions early in the race and he likely won't get the same respect here, plus he will be bet down. I'll try to beat him. (4) WILLYORWONTHE can sit a trip near the front and stick around for a share.
Race 2
(1) MCWICKED is simply much better than these right now and he should take another with ease. (6) NIRVANA SEELSTER was a good 2nd to the choice in the Mohawk Gold Cup and he will likely set the pace and complete the exacta again. (4) ELLIS PARK is in solid form, but likely no match for the top two; small shared predicted. (5) EASY LOVER HANOVER has been racing better of late and he should be an exotics factor here.
Race 3
(1) ADVERSITY won at a good price last time he raced in this class and he likely will go off as an overlay here, too. I'll give him a slight nod. (5) ETRUSCAN HANOVER raced game last week, but he couldn't chase down an even gamer (2) EXEMPLAR. Both of these contenders rate highly here. (4) MAJESTIC PRESENCE is worth a look, too, coming off a race in which she took a new life's mark.
Race 4
(1) MANCEIVER finished with some pace last week in his best effort in a while; slight nod in a very tough race. (6) BILLS FELLA got a great setup last week and capitalized, but his good recent form should be respected here. (3) SAULSBROOK LANNY has only missed the board once and he comes off a good sires stakes effort; using. (4) SOUTHWIND DIESEL rarely misses the ticket, but a smaller share seems likely again for him.
Race 5
(6) ERLE DALE N dominated last time he was in this class and tonight's driver Jamieson was in the bike then; top call. (2) HIGHLANDBEACHYCOVE also won last time he raced at this level; using. (1) P L IDAHO had his bubble broken last week and he has gone off form quickly under similar circumstances in the past. I wouldn't take a short price on this gelding. (10) SOUTHWIND MASIMO is competitive at this level and he is worth a poke if he goes off in the 20/1 range starting from out there.
Race 6
(5) SOME ATTITUDE didn't have the same fire last week coming off a dominant life's best mile. I'll look for him to bounce back with a better effort here. (6) FANCOURT has been tough recently when he gets a quick start. Leaving from a good post here, he should be prominent throughout. (2) CALVIN K drops back into a conditioned race here and he is worth a look starting from the inside. (4) RED JOHN was game in beating the choice last week after being out first-over a long way. He could better this prediction.
Race 7
(6) FIRST CAR moved up several lengths with McNair driving for the first time last week and although he steps up in class here, anything close to a repeat of that mile makes him very tough. (5) REGAL SON had a brutal trip in traffic last time. If he can leave in the choice's pocket, he's in with a decent chance here. (2) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSLES took a solid win in his 2nd start for Moreau at Grand River last week. He isn't out of this and he has already recorded several wins on the WEG circuit this year. (8) DREAMY FELLA can close in late for a slice here.
Race 8
(6) MR WIGGLE PANTS drops to his lowest class level in a long time. It's now or never for him. (1) BUGGER BRUISER has been racing well using a closing style lately, but he is also capable of leaving hard and sitting a good trip near the front; exacta factor. (2) BURNING SHORE is a good one to use on the bottom as he will likely sit another inside following trip then pass some horses late. (8) REDONKULOUS is worth a look for the exotics coming off a break for a sharp barn.
Race 9
(1) FLANAGAN MEMORY suffered interference before the start last week then still rallied to finish 2nd. He may be ready now with that one under his belt; slight nod. (5) ODDS ON AMETHYST tired chasing a strong leader last time. He should bounce back with a better effort here. (6) CHARMED LIFE once again is likely to take a smaller share here. (3) RENEGADE MAGIC steps up off a lifetime-best score. She can pass a few late and share here.
Race 10
(2) MACH CODE was a strong 2nd to a sharp winner last time and he should be tough here racing on or near the lead. (6) CONTINUAL HANOVER drops back to a level where he last won and Drury drove him well last week and he stays here; using. (4) TRACEUR HANOVER steps up off a nice win and he has to be considered here. (5) BLATANTLY BEST is another in with a chance racing at a level where he is competitive typically.
Race 11
In a race that has 'closer' written all over it, I'll take a swing with (6) WEATHERLY, who closed to win at 15/1 here in a similar class seven starts back. (8) THE ROADIES faced easier here and he should last longer. (1) PAPARAZZI HANOVER is another that should appreciate more class relief; using. (4) SURPRISE HANOVER should take a smaller share racing at this level. (7) SENIOR K was game in defeat last time, but many of these are tougher; small share predicted.
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