Mohawk: Saturday 7/1 Analysis
Best Bet: SPORTS COLUMN (6th)
Spot Play: PRESCOTTS HOPE (7th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 3,4,5,7/1,7/6,7,8/1,5,8/2,9 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 1,5,8/2,9/8/1,4,5,6,7,10 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 7/1,2,3,6/4,7/5,8,9 = $24
MEET STATS: 158 - 482 / $900.40 BEST BETS: 21 - 47 / $79.60
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 47 / $126.50
Race 1
(4) ADVERSITY was a winner in a similar class here two starts back. He relies on a slowing late pace for his kick to be effective and there should be plenty of early speed here; top call. (3) BIG RICH will take most of the action dropping from the top class and he will likely be the one to catch as they turn for home. (5) O NARUTAC PERFETTO was a determined winner vs. lesser on a wet track last time. His sharp form should be respected here. (7) YOURE MAJESTIC should be more of a factor here now that she got a clean line coming off a break.
Race 2
(7) CALVIN K took a new life's mark in just his second start of the year and while he will likely have to lower that mark to beat these, he may be up to it. (1) STREAKAVANA has been a bit disappointing so far this year, but he faced the best on the continent last time and he is an obvious contender here, but he may be overbet. (2) FIREBALL has been good all year so far and his consistently good form should be respected. (3) C L SPORTACTION has the speed to contend here if he is put into the race by a driver who has only a couple of starts over this track.
Race 3
(8) NIRVANA SEELSTER has never been better. Catch him to greet the photographer. (6) SINTRA and (7) EASY LOVER HANOVER will likely vie to sit in the choice's pocket from the outset. Whoever can grab that coveted spot has the best chance of registering an upset. (5) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN won a watered down version of this class on North America Cup night. A smaller share is likely here vs. the top three.
Race 4
(1) P L JACKSON drops, moves inside and is a good bet to pop. (8) PAR INTENDED uncorked an impressive late rally to win last week and he would be a major contender here if he can reproduce that kind of effort. (5) MOHAWK WARRIOR drops to his lowest class in some time, but his 0 for 16 record this season is concerning and he is sure to get bet down in this spot. (7) WAZZUP WAZZUP should pick up some pieces late and pass some of these for a share.
Race 5
(2) WINDSUN REVENGE is on a roll and he dug deep last week to take his third Preferred in a row. He will be tough again. (9) MARION MARAUDER - last year's trotting Triple Crown winner - is obviously the class of the field, but he surely has bigger fish to fry this summer and he isn't unbeatable in this spot. (7) MUSICAL RHYTHM had a great trip last week, but still couldn't get by the choice in the lane. He is in the mix again. (8) CATCH THE DREAM can motor up late and fill one of the lower exotics rungs.
Race 6
(8) SPORTS COLUMN gets huge class relief here and he should have no trouble with these, but he will be no higher than 1 to 5 on the board. (4) SAULSBROOK LANNY raced great last week and he is a good one to use in the exacta and tri with his improving form, plus, he should offer some value here. (2) MC MACH also gets some class relief here and he is logical to use underneath. (1) ARSENAL SEELSTER has an outside shot here if he can stay flat this time.
Race 7
(7) PRESCOTTS HOPE raced too good to lose last week, but a protracted duel with the leader cost him late. He can beat these if he can work out a slightly better trip. (1) CHAMPAGNE PHIL comes out off rapid miles at Georgian and he should get a decent trip near the front here; using. (6) MR WIGGLE PANTS has faced much tougher here and he should wake up with a better effort here. (4) DREAMY FELLA is in super form and he likely won't get bet here. Consider him for Tri and Super bets.
Race 8
(7) CLASSIC PRO - who held well for 4th in the North America Cup despite being part of a wild early pace - will be very hard to beat here. (3) TYMAL PEACEMAKER looks ready for a sharp sophomore debut. He can complete the exacta here. (5) FRONTIER SEELSTER is one that may get a nice trip near the front. He can stick around for a slice. (4) HAPPY TRIO hasn't raced since wiring the field on a severely speed-favoring London track on Molson Pace night. I'll play to beat him out of the exacta and trifecta here.
Race 9
(6) ELLIS PARK tries hard every week, but he always seems to face some very tough ones. He looks best here and he should get an aggressive steer. (1) AMERICAN VIRGIN raced better last week and he could be returning to the form that got him several wins in a row in this class earlier in the year; using. (2) TRACEUR HANOVER steps up off a sharp effort, but he has won in this class before and he isn't out of this. (3) NICKLE BAG will likely look to trip out this week and he is another veteran that is capable here.
Race 10
(7) WHATASHOWINONTARIO has raced well with Cullen diving and this duo comes in off a powerful lifetime-best score in the same class. Call to repeat. (4) EAST END made an eye-catching move around the final turn last week as he continues to improve. I think you have to use him in the late Pick 4. (8) BEAST MODE is also racing well, but he was no match for the choice last time; small share predicted. (3) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT will be passing horses in the stretch to likely grab a slice.
Race 11
(8) SHADOW PLACE was cooked early last time, but the drop in class here puts him right in the picture; top call. (5) MACHAL JORDAN failed to convert the drop-and-pop last week and he steps up here, but he will be a better price and he could trip out this time. (9) CARACCI HANOVER is another class-dropper that figures in this spot. (6) DARCEE B will be closing to finish on the fringes, as always. (7) HES A SENSATION is another that will be closing late and he should make the High-5 ticket.
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