Mohawk: Saturday 6/24 Analysis
Best Bet: DIA MONDE (5th)
Spot Play: SPORTS LIGHTNING (9th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2,5/4/1,2,7/4,5,8/5 = $5.40
EARLY PICK 4: 4,5,8/5/2,5,6/1,3,5,8 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 6,8/2,3,4/4,5,6/6,8 = $36
MEET STATS: 143 - 442 / $794.60 BEST BETS: 20 - 43 / $76.40
SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 43 / $112.50
Race 1
(2) BIG BAD BILL gets a much better post here and a try similar to his narrow loss is reasonable to expect here; slight nod. (5) FIREBALL put in a big effort last week vs. non-winners of three and notice he has only missed the exacta once this year; using. (1) WALTER MITTY hasn't missed the board this year, but, he has missed a month and he could be heavily over bet here coming off an OSS Gold win with other stakes surely coming up. I will use him in the Pick 5 for protection, but I think he is beatable under these conditions. (3) DEO GALILEO raced only evenly in his Mohawk debut, but he is likely to be sent harder here off the gate, which gives him a shot vs. these.
Race 2
(4) NIRVANA SEELSTER made two early moves to the front in the Gold Cup and paced one of the biggest miles of his life in defeat. He has obviously never been better and he will take beating here. (3) FOOL ME ONCE was handled by the choice last time, then he skipped a week. He looks next best here. (7) DINNER AT THE MET continues to hold excellent form, but the outside post isn't ideal here. He should close for a smaller share, however. (6) CONTINUAL HANOVER raced to a new life's mark in his first start out of the Alagna barn. Keep him in mind for the bottom of Tris and Supers here.
Race 3
(7) MUSICAL RHYTHM was a solid third in the Charlie Hill Memorial at Scioto, now he picks up Filion for his return to Mohawk. He gets a slight nod over two very tough rivals, the first being (1) WINDSUN REVENGE, who is in great form and will benefit from starting on the inside. The other is (2) CHARMED LIFE, who is actually facing easier in getting away from superstar mare Hannelore Hanover. Any of these three can win depending on trip, in my opinion. (4) IL SOGNO DREAM was an impressive winner last week in a much easier field. He can take a small share here.
Race 4
When (5) PRESCOTTS HOPE gets good, he can be really good. I will stick with him here despite the class rise based on what I saw from him last week. (8) NICKLE BAG is in top form and if the pace slows at all in the late stages, and he is close enough, he may roll right by them all; using. (4) IDEAL JET comes off a new life's mark last week and he has never been better. Toss him in multi-race bets. (7) AUDREYS DREAM is always closing late it seems. He can come on in the final quarter here for a piece.
Race 5
(5) DIA MONDE sticks out here, coming off a good second to last year's trotting Triple Crown winner. He should easily handle this group. (1) HONOR ABOVE ALL was a winner at a wildly overlaid price last week with Filion taking the reins for the first time. He may be overlooked here, too, and he can provide some value in the exacta and tri. (9) BATOUTAHILL raced much better last week. She is another that will likely be a good price here that is worth considering. (3) STREAMSONG rarely misses the top four and he did well to hang in there last week despite having a long trip.
Race 6
(2) DOVUTO HANOVER almost got there last week despite a very rough trip. A slightly easier journey can get him home here, and he is sure to be a better price this time. (5) EASY LOVER HANOVER faces by far his easiest 2017 test here and he is sure to be heavily-bet. He is an obvious contender in this spot and must be used in the early Pick 4. (6) TRACEUR HANOVER also drops and he did well in this class in April. (4) STOVER will likely get a more aggressive drive this time, which is when he does his best work.
Race 7
(3) JIMMY BE GOOD had an impossible trip last week when cover stopped right in front of him during the 26 4/5 third quarter. If there is some actual flow to this race, he could spring an upset here. (1) EAST END joins Auciello's barn on a roll. He is dangerous here. (5) ROCKIN FINISH goes for Moreau and gets the top driver. Expect improvement with those changes. (8) VEGAS ROCKS also changes barns and enters off a sharp qualifier. Henry is likely sending this gelding for as far as he can go.
Race 8
(8) CATCH THE DREAM has held his form well recently and he should be able to chase these down in the stretch if he is within 5 lengths of the lead at the 3/4 pole. (6) CUE HALL wired the field last time he raced in this class. McNair will likely try the same tactics here and there is a decent chance that they will work again. (10) ETRUSCAN HANOVER had no luck with Filion driving two starts back, but he produced a sharp winning effort at Georgian Downs last week and he fits well here. He has an upset chance. (9) YOUR MAJESTIC is another that has gait issues that could pop in this class if she can stay trotting.
Race 9
(4) SPORTS LIGHTNING is 2 for 2 racing out of the Copley barn and he has shown dramatic improvement. Henry picked him over Beast Mode here; call for the threepeat. (3) BEAST MODE's rally was a stride short last week in a quick mile. Driver Henry has done well with him and he is sure to be a factor here. (2) MAJOR HILL was used up in the first 3/4 last week and understandably faded. He has a better shot here. (1) FIRST CAR raced better last time and he should take a small share at a minimum here starting from the inside.
Race 10
(6) FRONTIER SEELSTER should get a good trip near the front here, similar to last week. A repeat trip and result is very possible. (5) RICHARD HILL drops back to a class where he fits much better after trying the big boys; using. (4) DREAMFAIR B J comes off his best race ever and he is in with a shot here, considering his improving form. (1) YOGI BAYAMA is worth a look at long odds based on the barn change alone.
Race 11
(8) REGAL SON got roughed up as the choice last time as he couldn't keep pace with a fired up Prescotts Hope. He has a better shot at securing the lead or pocket early this time; top call. (6) RISE UP NOW doesn't win on this circuit very often, but this should be a good spot for him here; using. (3) DARCEE N keeps firing home quickly, but he never seems to be in position to capitalize. A slice is likely for him again. (7) PAR INTENDED is another that should be closing late to make the ticket. (10) DREAMY FELLA is likely to be far back early, but his good closing power could see him sneaking onto the High 5 ticket.
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