Mohawk: Saturday 5/27 Analysis
Best Bet: OUR SKY MAJOR N (9th)
Spot Play: BALLERAT BOOMERANG (10th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,5,8/2,5/1,5,6,7/1,3,4/2,7,8 = $43.20
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,4/2,7,8/2,8/6,8 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 4,7,9/4/3,7,8/1,5,9 = $27
MEET STATS: 91 - 246 / $548.40 BEST BETS: 12 - 24 / $52.50
SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 22 / $55.70
Race 1
(5) NEXT THING SMOKEN moved first up as the leader was kicking it into high gear last week and he was easily repelled. A better trip close to the front could result in an upset win here. (8) JIMMY BE GOOD beat the choice in that race and he was one of few that was closing ground on the leader. Notice the sharp final 1/4; using. (2) DOVUTO HANOVER was wiped out entering the turn last time which surely cost him a win. He is the third one I will use in the Pick 5 from this field. (9) PAR INTENDED will likely take a closer approach here and he can pass a few of these late.
Race 2
(5) BLENHEIM drops after getting his second clean line in a row, the most recent one was a good effort from the 10 hole; top call. (2) DUH BUBBEES takes a big class drop here and a speed try is very likely; using. (9) ESCUELA is another that takes the plunge, but starting from out there, a smaller share is likely for her. (4) BURNIN MONEY also gets class relief, but he will likely still find some of the ones listed above too tough; small share predicted.
Race 3
(6) MAJOR HILL raced just okay last week in his first time in a claimer, but Auciello took him and now moves him back into conditioned races. I'll take a stab that he can strike right away with this gelding. (1) THE ROADIES is the 'now' horse and he's hard to leave out coming off that impressive mile last week. (7) BLAYDE HANOVER had a decent season debut. He should show more with that tightener out of the way. (5) TWOMACSONEMACH steps up off a win vs. lesser. He can close for a slice here.
Race 4
(1) FOREVER LIZA kicked it into high gear halfway down the lane last time on her way to an impressive score. There should be ample pace to chase here; I'll stick with her. (4) LYONS RIVER PRIDE takes a big drop from the top class here. She is a multi-race must-use for me. (3) EXHILARATED is capable of much better if she behaves this time and she should be a square price. Don't count her out. (5) SAYITALL BB is in sharp form but she will likely find at least a couple of these too tough; small share predicted.
Race 5
(2) SOUTHWIND MASIMO was motoring late after being held up on bad cover last time. A better trip here could get him home first, despite the class rise. (8) DUC DORLEANS tripped out perfectly behind dueling leaders to win by daylight on Sunday night. While he is obviously a contender here, he may get over bet off that mile, which may not be as good as it looks on paper. (7) MCKINNEY couldn't get close to a winner that was claimed who left everything on the track last week, but he did close willingly for 2nd in a quick mile; using. (5) DIALAMARA figures for a smaller share here.
Race 6
(2) WHISTYS PARADISE has shown some late interest at big odds in each of her last two starts. While her price is likely to drop here, she could pop at decent odds if she is a bit closer to the lead turning for home. (8) CASE DISMISSED has been on fire recently, most recently going a huge trip from the 10-hole to win. I think you have to use her despite the class bump. (3) ONYOURMARKNATAVA is in solid form, but she would need a better final 1/4 to beat these, which isn't impossible with this barn. (1) SHEZAREALDEAL was used up early last time. She should stick around for a slice vs. these.
Race 7
(8) P L JACKSON ran out of racetrack last time, but he was gaining on the leader who was pacing a 27 flat final 1/4. He should be prominent near the front throughout here; slight nod. (6) ERLE DALE takes a big drop and he must be considered in the cash leg of the Pick 4. (5) AUDREYS DREAM tripped out last time but he could do no better than third because the pace was accelerating. He should be good to hit the ticket again here. (9) CONTINUAL HANOVER was aggressively handled to beat easier last time. He is capable of getting on a roll, but post does him no favors here.
Race 8
(9) BATOUTAHILL motored home in 55 2/5 to score off a break last week. She will be flying late here again and could pass all of these, too; top call. (7) MISTER HERBIE raced decently in another comeback attempt. He is class enough and fast enough to beat these if he is sound enough. (4) TONY SOPRANO was picked off late by the choice in a good effort. He isn't out of this. (8) SASS had a good comeback effort when beaten by the choice. He merits consideration for the Pick 4 off that race.
Race 9
(4) OUR SKY MAJOR N rocketed home last week when facing a winner who was taking his third straight impressive victory. That came off a three week break and he is now returning in seven days; top call. (5) EASY LOVER HANOVER didn't make the Confederation Cup Final, but he should find these easier; using. (2) TRACEUR HANOVER also drops to a class that is more to his liking and he should get more aggressive handling here; using. (3) DINNER AT THE MET merits a look dropping from the top class, but I see him as more of a fringe player here.
Race 10
(8) BALLERAT BOOMERANG was victimized by a slow first 1/2 last week, but he kept trying hard despite the pace accelerating dramatically late in the mile. He should go better here with that race under his belt and the outside post gives him some options. (7) PRESCOTTS HOPE is in solid form and he is likely to get sent early here which would make him tough in this class. (3) PAPARAZZI HANOVER is capable of a big speed try here - especially if the top two take back off the gate - don't discount. (6) COOL ROCK should be passing many of these to hit the ticket.
Race 11
(1) RESISTANCE FUTILE drops to a level where he should be a main player. He should be on the move earlier here. (9) MR CENSI got used too much, too early last week and he paid the price late. He can rebound here with a more even effort. (5) MATRIX OF LUCK hung a bit late last week in his first start over the track. He can go better here, but I wouldn't take a short price. (4) BEAST MODE adds Lasix off a narrow win at the bottom level. The top three look better this time; small share predicted. (3) BIG YELLOW qualified okay for this. He could pass some rivals late to crash the exotics at a big price.
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