Mohawk: Saturday 5/20 Analysis
Best Bet: WINDY SPORT (8th)
Spot Play: CONTINUAL HANOVER (10th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,4,7/3,6/1,5,8/4,5,8/6,7 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 4,5,8/6,7/2/1,4,6,7 = $24
LATE PICK 4: 1,4,6,7/4/2/2,3,4,5 = $16
MEET STATS: 70 - 203 / $423.50 BEST BETS: 9 - 20 / $42.60
SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 20 / $43.30
Race 1
Three horses move into new barns off claims here and the one I am going to use on top is (2) NEXT THING SMOKEN, who set solid fractions then dug in late last week to win. (7) MAJOR HILL comes up tagged for the first time and although he has missed a week, he should be a big threat here with the class relief. DON MCWHITE comes up tagged here after just failing to hold on vs. conditioned foes. He can threaten here racing close to the lead or from off the pace. (4) TOTALLY KISSED fits for this tag and he should be coming late; using.
Race 2
(3) MAGIC PRESTO returned in fine fashion last week, easily taking her elim for this race and while she is an obvious strong contender, she may actually end up being a bit of an overlay here due to the presence of (6) GRAVITATOR. The latter was not asked for anything until late in the mile when she produced a big kick and just failed to beat the winner, who sat a perfect pocket trip. This filly retains Roy and she will take plenty of action but I prefer the former, even if only slightly. (7) ROYAL WITCH raced well vs. the choice and is an exotics factor here. (4) MRSTERY BEAR goes for connections that continue to run hot and you could find worse 8 to 10/1 shots, which is where she will likely close here.
Race 3
(1) WIGGLE IT J has been on fire the past three weeks and while she faces tougher again, that should help her price. I'll stick with her. (8) EXHILARATED drops back to a level where she just failed to get the job done two starts back. Expect a big try here. (5) HOT SPOT HANOVER was passed by a winner that was razor sharp for her season's debut. This mare is coming around now; using. (3) MUCH ADOO drops and she merits a look, but, she has also failed at this level numerous times.
Race 4
(8) BLATANTLY BEST has looked great in both wins here and he should be tough to beat here, too. (5) DUDES THE MAN is obviously classy, having raced here in both the Metro Stakes and North America Cup elims. He looks well-prepped for this return and is a must-use for me. (4) P L JACKSON is too sharp to ignore at this point. I will toss him on multi-race tickets. (2) AUDREYS DREAM was wildly overbet in his last two starts. He can close for a share here, though, despite moving up.
Race 5
(7) SOUTHWIND MASIMO comes off a lifetime-best score last week and the step up isn't great here; call to repeat. (6) ELECTRIC WESTERN had a brutal trip last week, but he was closing well when he finally had room to pace; using. (2) BURNING SHORE figures to take a piece of this racing near the front. (1) DARCEE N closes for a slice every week. He will luck into a win one of these times, but it is near impossible to predict when that will happen.
Race 6
(2) BALLERAT BOOMERANG ships in and drops from non-winners of eight races to non-winners of six. This is a good spot for him; top call. (1) STREAKAVANA is obviously talented and fast enough to compete here, but, it's hard to predict intent with stakes season approaching for this sophomore. (4) REDONKULOUS was in an impossible spot last time racing against Fool Me Once, who ripped off a 1:50 flat mile. These should be more to his liking and he can be closer here. (6) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT is in sharp form and he should be rallying for a share here.
Race 7
(7) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN was easily best of the rest when facing a horse that has paced two wicked miles since shipping in. He could take these with an aggressive steer and he should be a square price facing some class droppers. (6) COMPANY MAN takes a big drop in class here and he no doubt will be heavily backed. He's the one to beat. (4) HIGHLANDBEACHYCOVE never misses a check and he takes a slight class drop here; using. (1) FINE DIAMOND is another dropping a level, but he is an infrequent winner. A minor share is likely for him.
Race 8
(4) WINDY SPORT motored to a new life's mark with Roy in the bike last week. She is clearly the one to beat here; top call. (1) SOIREE SEELSTER could be much better here with a race under her belt and she should offer some value; using. (5) BLAMEITONNTHENIGHT is another that was very good last year that should go better now after getting a tightener last week; using in exotics. (3) FADE finally broke through with her second win last week but the fractions and final time were much slower than those recorded in the race the choice - her stablemate - won. I will try to beat her out of the exacta and trifecta here.
Race 9
(2) FOOL ME ONCE recorded a 1:50 flat win with consummate ease last week. He should be up to stepping into the top class. His 1:48 1/5 lifetime mark was taken at Mohawk in a North America Cup elim. (7) ELLIS PARK went a big trip on the rim last week, but the slow fractions were in the leader's favor and he couldn't quite get by. He is coming to hand quicker than what has been typical in previous years and he could take this at a price. (8) EVENIN OF PLEASURE is tuning up to defend his Molson Pace title next Friday, so it’s hard to predict how he will be raced here. If I had to guess I would think he will be raced from the back in the flow. (3) SHAMBALLA was a victim of pace in his return, and he obviously could beat this prediction, but I can't go to him here if he is a short price. The choice should be might tough.
Race 10
(4) CONTINUAL HANOVER had a brutal trip from the worst post last week, but he stayed game to the end to hold third in what was a big effort. He looks solid here moving to a much better post. (2) SMALLTOWN TERROR closed well vs. a tough winner last time. He looks like the main threat. (3) BORDER CONTROL A drops and should find this group much easier than the streaking Fool Me Once. He can take a good share here. (5) ROCKIN FINISH steps up again but keeps Roy. He will need to get moving earlier to have a chance here. (1) LISVINNIE can pass a few of these to make the High 5 ticket.
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