Mohawk: Saturday 4/22 Analysis
Best Bet: JINS SHARK (2nd)
Spot Play: LMC MASS OAK (6th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,8,9/2/1,2,4,6/4,5,6,9/1,6,9 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 4,5,6,9/1,6,9/6/2,3,7,8 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,7,8/2,3,6/5,6/2,6 = $48
MEET STATS: 9 - 40 / $47.70 BEST BETS: 0 - 4 / $0.00
SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 4 / $12.80
Race 1
(8) PONDAS LEXUS is really clicking with Roy and the step up isn't that great here; a threepeat looms. (2) MISSION MAN qualified in good time and this is a good spot to make his season's debut. He should contend racing up close here. (9) P L JILL is worth a look at a price here. She has been contentious vs. better in the past. (10) PREMIER GLITTER can roll up late for a share, again at a big price.
Race 2
(2) JINS SHARK drops into a spot where he should be able to control things; no excuses here. (6) SPORTS LIGHTNING set strong fractions en route to an easy win last time. He looks like the main threat. (7) CHIEF TALKALOT is in solid form now and he will be coming late again. Consider him when making exacta and tri bets. (1) DON MCWHITE should get a much better start here. He is another that can come on late for a share.
Race 3
(2) FIRST CAR keeps rolling and his adaptable style is a big advantage. These are a bit tougher, but, I'll stick with him. (6) TWOMACSONEMACH bet a rival that came back with a fast win next out. He is one of many that Roy has moved up since arriving; using. (1) SECRECY fell just short to the choice last time. He isn't out of this, but I prefer the top two for the win. (4) SIR GALAHAD has been facing tougher and he's another that should be in the mix here.
Race 4
(9) MATTJESTIC TEMPO was a strong winner two back when Roy drove for the only time. He returns here; top call. (6) REGAL LUCK made two moves last time and was a good 2nd to a repeat winner; using. (4) NIPS BEACH GIRL goes for a trainer that typically does well at this meet in her first start off the claim. She is another to consider for multi-race bets here. (5) STONEBRIDGE QUEST likes this track and she will likely be a threat racing close up here.
Race 5
(6) NIRVANA SEELSTER had a race over the track, now he drops and gets a much better post. He could take these a long way on the lead this time. (9) DIALAMARA passed horses in two straight 1:50 flat miles. He is sharp, but he needs to work out a trip from out there. (1) CONTINUAL HANOVER did well here last year and has a tightener under his belt. He can threaten here. (5) CHAMPAGNE PHIL will be a pace factor, but likely only stays for a small share here.
Race 6
(6) LMC MASS OAK raced huge last week, considering the traffic issues he encountered. Expect a more aggressive approach this time. (9) ST JAMES GATE is another that was impressive in defeat last week, but, his poor starts can be an issue. (2) CHARLIE IS A JOKER drops to a level where he should contend. (8) MEADOWBRANCH MEMO was a bit lucky to get room when needed last time, but once free, he powered up. He is unlikely to get the same trip here; small share predicted.
Race 7
(7) BURNING SHORE exits a quick dash and faces what should be easier here; slight nod. (3) THEY CALL ME GORDY put up some solid splits and was game in defeat last time. He is an obvious speed threat again. (8) ARTFUL BLISS can get a good stalking spot early hare and take a share, again at a square price. (2) COBALT MAN is worth a look off the claim, but he has missed more than a month; your call.
Race 8
(3) EVENIN OF PLEASURE raced fast enough in his April 13th qualifier to suggest he is ready to roll. This is an easy class for him if he is on his game. (6) OUR SKY MAJOR got hung out to dry last time in the Levy, but his race two back puts him right there vs. these. (2) COMPANY MAN drops and gets Roy. He's hard to leave out here. (5) HALF A BILLION continues to race well. He can close late for a share.
Race 9
(6) AMERICAN VIRGIN has been unstoppable in this top class and with his high finishing speed, he is hard to go against. (5) DINNER AT THE MET takes a big step up off the claim, but he's looked like a different and much faster horse of late. I'll toss him in the late Pick 4. (2) ROCKIN WIZARD paced a monster uncovered trip to win last time. These are tougher, but he can share. (4) NICKLE BAG tries hard every week, but rarely wins now. Small share predicted.
Race 10
(6) MACHAL JORDAN was far back last week, but missing a check allows him to take a big drop here. He should be a big factor in this class. (2) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS is simply too hot to leave out and he goes for a trainer that has been doing well with a small number of starters so far. (5) COOL ROCK curiously has McClure listed for his only drive of the night. He could sweep by all of these on his best day; beware. (1) UF BETTORS HANOVER is likely to fill one of the bottom exotics slots, again. (8) PAPARAZZI HANOVER should finish on the fringes here after racing close up early.
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