Mohawk: Saturday 10/14 Analysis
Best Bet: R FIRST CLASS (3rd)
Spot Play: TORCHES PIRATE (6th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 12 – Mandatory Jackpot Hi Five payout
PICK 5: ALL/4,8/3/5,6,8/2,4,7 =$25.20
EARLY PICK 4: 5,6,8/2,4,7/3,7/3,4,9 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 3/2/1,2,6/1,2,3,6 = $12
$0.20 HIGH 5 Ticket - 5/1,2,3,4,8/1,2,3,4,8/1,2,3,4,6,7,8/ALL = $160
MEET STATS: 386 - 1188 / $2,136.70 BEST BETS: 52 - 114 / $182.50
SPOT PLAYS: 36 - 114 / $219.10
Race 1
This race has the look of one that will fall apart late, so I'll give (3) FOOL ME ONCE a slight nod thinking he can pick up the pieces. (6) JINS SHARK is another that can come on late that should also be a good price here. (4) PRESCOTTS HOPE has never been better and comes in off a new life's mark, but, his most effective style conflicts with that of (1) NIRVANA SEELSTER, which could result in an early pace that neither can sustain.
Race 2
(8) KADABRA QUEEN blew her unbeaten streak in OSS events last time when she broke, but she can rebound here in the richest race of the year for her. (4) SORCERESS SEELSTER comes in off a solid qualifier and she could take these a long way on the lead. (3) ILLUSIONEESTA is still winless, but she brings good form to this Superfinal and she could hit the ticket. (6) SHAMROCK SHAKER is another that is in solid form that should be used underneath.
Race 3
(3) R FIRST CLASS looks like one of the more solid plays of the night and he will likely take control of this race before the 1/2 and seal the deal; Pick 5 single. (1) MAGIC NIGHT adds Lasix and he is likely the biggest threat to the choice here. (2) CAPTEUR DE REVE was a game winner in his local debut and he figures to make the ticket here. (5) LMC MASS GEM has only missed the top three once so far in 2017. He is another to consider for the exotics.
Race 4
(5) BLAMEITONTHENIGHT had an impossible trip last time out the route. There should be lots of action here and she could trip out from a better post and blow up the tote board. (6) THE JOY LUCK CLUB was pressured into defeat last time and while she is obviously the best in here, a similar pace scenario could unfold here. (8) ACTION MAJESTY had little chance last time racing from post 12 when coming off a break, but she can improve sharply here; using. (9) AINT THREE OK is another that has more ability than she has shown recently and she is worth a look at a price here.
Race 5
(2) JIMMY FREIGHT got hopelessly buried at London last time, but he has a good post here to work out a solid trip near the front; slight nod. (7) WESTERN PASSAGE is the “now” horse in this division coming off a powerful maiden-breaking score in an OSS Gold race at Western Fair. (4) ST LADS NEPTUNE's only two losses came in the Metro Pace elimination and final. You have to toss him on multi-race tickets. (3) DECLAN SEELSTER is always around the money and should hit the ticket.
Race 6
(7) TORCHES PIRATE I find interesting here based on his improved late speed in his second start back. Maybe he breaks his maiden and blows up the tote board here. (3) DRAFT YEAR was very impressive breaking his maiden last week in an OSS Gold race, but he was allowed to cut a very soft half then took off from there. He is the one to beat, but no lock here. (9) T BARRR has come to life in his last two but the outer post will likely be tough for him here; small share predicted.
Race 7
(3) DOVUTO HANOVER and (9) MAJOR HILL were both shuffled out of the same race after taking turns leading early in a race full of lead changes. They can both get much better trips here; slight nod to the former based on the better post. (4) PHYSICALLYINCLINED is getting closer and he should get a decent trip here. (2) BALLERAT BOOMERANG can take a smaller share vs. these.
Race 8
(3) ON A SUNNY DAY is the best of this bunch and from a good post she should take home some Superfinal hardware. (4) WINTER SWEET FROST could challenge the choice if she can stay trotting this time. (5) SWEET OF MY HEART will be a speed threat for as far as she goes. (6) MRSTERY BEAR is worth a look on the trainer change here, noting the former trainer is sole owner of the filly.
Race 9
(2) KENDALL SEELSTER has dominated this division for the past few starts and starting from a good post here, she should convert. (1) JUST HER LUCK is a bomb to consider for the bottom of the exacta as she will likely ride the inside to the stretch and if she has room, she could charge up for 2nd. (5) PERCY BLUECHIP looked unbeatable early this summer but she has gone off form a bit, although she is still getting bet off her earlier stellar miles. I'll try to beat her out of the exacta here. (9) PLAY THE BELL has the ability and speed to hit the ticket if she can overcome the post here.
Race 10
(1) BILLS FELLA simply started his move too late last time. He has maintained his sharp form and he could get a great pace setup here; top call. (2) DREAMFAIR BJ has really come to life in his past two starts and he is one to fear here. (6) HISTOIRE ENCHANTE has been excellent in both Mohawk starts, but he could face some outside heat here which could lead to his undoing late. (7) NASCAR SEELSTER can pick up some pieces late her and make the Tri or Super ticket.
Race 11
(6) ELLIS PARK bravely cut through a fierce headwind to win last time in his second start for new driver Macdonald; call to repeat. (2) ASAP HANOVER adds Lasix which could move him up considerably here. (1) MAKE SOME LUCK is always around the money. He'll get there one of these weeks. (3) MR CENSI was used up early vs. the choice last time. He can rebound with a better result here if provided with an easier trip.
Race 12
(5) ROLLAROUNDTHEWORLD was game in defeat last week, but he got picked off in the final strides by a tripped-out pocket-sitter. He is my key horse in this mandatory pay High 5 race. I will use him in the 1-2 slots and expand from there. (4) DUBIOUS CLAIM chased the choice first up but couldn't get there as the pace accelerated. He rates highly here. (1) REBELLIOUS is capable of a big mile on his best day; beware. (3) PREPPY ART steps into a tougher class here, but he comes off a lifetime-best effort; using. (7) HOMEY JOE can fly late and he will be a price here. Put him on the bottom of your High-5 bets.
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