Mohawk: Monday 9/25 Analysis
Best Bet: KADABRA QUEEN (6th)
Spot Play: BEACH HOUSE (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 6,7,9/3,5/1,6,8,10/9/1,2,4,5,6,10 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 9/1,2,4,5,6,10/4/1,2,3,4,7,9 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 1,2,3,4,7,9/2/2/3,4,7,8,9 = $30
MEET STATS: 361 - 1065 / $2,002.30 BEST BETS: 47 - 103 / $163.00
SPOT PLAYS: 35 - 103 / $213.00
Race 1
(7) P L KETCHUP was steered to a decent result in his most recent qualifier by catch-driver Saftic and he replaces the trainer here for the first time in a race for a purse; call to upset. (6) KUIL DEVA is the one to beat coming off a sharp effort in this class. (9) WIN CHASER faces elders after missing a month. He isn't without a shot, but he is more likely to take a smaller share here coming off the break in action. (4) MASS PSYCHOLOGY - now 0 for 15 - should take a smaller share.
Race 2
(5) LMC MASS GEM had a perfect tightener for this after missing more than a month and you can expect to see him put into this race right from the word go; top call. (3) R FIRST CLASS almost took International Moni down last time, but he has missed 22 days, so I'll try to knock him off with the choice, but you have to use him in the Pick 5. (1) HEAD TURNING JAG looks next best and he can close for a good piece of this purse. (6) MANSSIVE will be an early presence but likely hang on for only a small slice.
Race 3
(1) MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP returns much quicker this time, drops and gets a better post. Those positive changes should produce a much better result. (6) ROCKABELLA could benefit from some battling here and roll by late; using. (8) BRINGHOME THE BLUE looked sounder last time than he has in a while, he just went too fast early. He's a threat to take these all the way this time. (10) BS TYRRIFIC is racing too consistently to dismiss completely here - even from post 10.
Race 4
(9) BEACH HOUSE raced decently last week after being gelded and now he returns quicker here. He could easily take these right down the road this time. (4) LISVINNIE finished just ahead of the choice last time and he is the main danger here. (5) ANTAR PHIL has been on a roll lately, but he would have to drop a couple of seconds here to challenge the top two. I don't see that happening. (6) COOL ROCK likely closes for another minor share here.
Race 5
(4) DONTCALLME DUDE showed good late interest in his local debut. I'll give him a slight edge in a wide-open race that demands deep coverage. (5) TIGERS WAY keeps coming close and he is a contender here, but he's also unreliable on the win end. (10) REBELLIOUS sizzled to a 1:51 flat lifetime best last time he raced in this class three starts back. If the intent is there, he could come close to repeating that effort here. (2) HISTOIRE ENCHANTEE is an interesting invader that might be worth a stab, depending on his price.
Race 6
(4) KADABRA QUEEN was ridiculously overbet last week, considering there is a definite pattern of wins in these stakes and losses in conditioned races right on her card. Returning much quicker here, the pattern should hold. (7) SMOKE AND MIRRORS beat the choice on August 11th, but she has to prove she can do it with the big pot on the line. (1) ILLUSIONEESTA should go much better here in this restricted stake. (5) MISS MIMI can take a share at a price here and one of these times she is going to pop at a big price.
Race 7
(2) MYSTICAL MISSION drops to a logical spot after a failed front-end bid vs. tougher last time. The 2nd-place finisher in that race came back to win on Thursday; top call. (3) FACING JUSTICE goes for a cagey barn off the claim here; using. (1) AMICUS raced better with trotting hopples added last time and he can make the ticket here, too. (4) DEUCE DEUCE DEUCE could better this placing if he stays flat this time.
Race 8
(2) BADSTORMANYPORT drops back to the class from which he was claimed and he should be hard to overhaul here. (3) WINDSONG LORD comes up tagged after winning in one of the highest classes at Flamboro four days ago. Is he priced to win and get claimed here? (6) JACK RACKHAM is solid racing in this class and he should at least make the board here. (1) THINK AGAIN could trip out near the front and he isn't out of this either.
Race 9
(2) MAGIC NIGHT put in a big mile last week and he just couldn't chase down a very tough winner who would be 3 to 5 in this field. This looks like Magic Night's turn here. (5) CAPTEUR DE REVE has some sneaky good from and being back in his own age group gives him a good shot at a big piece of this lucrative purse. (1) ON FIRST looks next best and he should get a good trip near the front. (4) DREAM MASSIVE has a good record and he should make the Super if he stays flat here.
Race 10
(4) APHRO STAR is always solid at this level and I'll give him the call to repeat here. (7) TRISUN provided the choice's perfect cover last time. The tables could turn here. (8) FOUR CARD MAJOR isn't the soundest horse on the grounds, but he merits a look going for Moreau off the claim here. (3) FACE OF WAR has been on a roll out of town and he isn't impossible in this spot. (9) DOWN ON MY LUCK is another that could be right in the mix here with a trip.
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