Mohawk: Monday 7/31 Analysis
Best Bet: TRUMP THAT (9th)
Spot Play: DANCER HALL (2nd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,5/5,6/3,5,6/2,3/1,3,4,5,7,9 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3/1,3,4,5,7,9/7/5,9,10 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 5,6,8,9,10/3,6,7/2/1,4,5 = $45
MEET STATS: 227 - 692 / $1,271.50 BEST BETS: 29 - 68 / $103.70
SPOT PLAYS: 28 - 68 / $157.10
Race 1
(2) DUCHESS DOLLY overcame a slow pace to blast home for an upset win last time; call to repeat. (5) LOVE KILLS fell just short on the same night in a race that went considerably faster. She is the main threat. (7) BREEZY is another that merits consideration coming off a good debut. (6) MRS DRAGONFIRE should be a pace threat here and stick around for a share.
Race 2
(6) DANCER HALL trotted a 27 1/5 third 1/4 just to get into contention last week and that left him a bit short for the drive. If he stays a bit closer early here, he should beat these. (5) CLARION HALL was victimized by a slow pace last time and still almost got there. He is sharp and dangerous if the intent is there. (10) JANGONE appears to be coming back into form and she wouldn't be a terrible stab at a big price here. (7) ITS HALLRIGHT beat the choice last time after latching onto his cover on the far turn. She could better this placing.
Race 3
(5) ROSE RUN REANNA parlayed a great trip into a lifetime-best score last week, but she projects to get another good trip on or near the lead here; call to repeat. (6) MOONSTAR MISSION hasn't done much in this class so far, but the short field helps him and he should be closer early than he has been recently; using. (3) SAFEKEEPING hasn't win this year yet, but she has the speed and talent to contend in this field. (7) LEAN HANOVER can take a small share coming off a vet scratch.
Race 4
(3) BADSTORMANYPORT took a new life's mark in this class last week and it's quite possible he could trip out and repeat here. (2) ARAZI is interesting shipping in exiting some quick miles at Trois Rivieres. I'll toss him in the Pick 4. (5) SIERRA MADRE should get a solid pace to chase here and pass some horses late for a share. (7) FOUR CARD MAJOR is another that should be closing in the lane to hit the ticket.
Race 5
(1) ADVERSITY drops a level and he should get a good trip on cover here. I'll give him the slightest nod in the toughest race on the card. (4) APRIL ROSE couldn't quite get there last time while trotting first up. She is in solid form and is a threat here. (9) O NARUTAC PERFETTO is trip and pace dependent somewhat, but he is worth a look here as there could be plenty of early action. (3) SASS is another to consider in a contentious field in a race where trip should decide the winner.
Race 6
(7) JUST HER LUCK looks several seconds faster than her rivals if she can reproduce her latest mile. She should be tough to beat here. (5) IVESEENTHEFUTURE almost overcame a slow early pace last time. She is the main threat, if there is one. (6) SECRET WRITER was in a no-win situation trying it first up when the late pace was accelerating. She can grab a slice here. (1) VOULEZ HANOVER looks best of the rest and she should sit a decent trip to take a small share.
Race 7
(9) NEXT THING SMOKEN was live last week but some early battling did in his chances. If he can avoid that same tussle here, he will be tough. (5) RED BUGLER couldn't do much pacing into a 55 2/5 back 1/2 at Georgian last time, but he still passed some rivals. He has a shot and might be a good price here. (10) IM THE PIED PIPER goes to a trainer that has 5 wins in his last 116 starts and none this year and he draws the worst post. A minor share might be his ceiling here. (8) BROCKS FORTUNE stopped in front of the choice on the far turn last week. He may take back this time, which would help the choice's chances.
Race 8
(7) AMOREUSE HANOVER should get sent hard off the gate for position near the front here, which would make her tough in this field. (6) SETANTA is in excellent form and his good closing kick could play well in this field - especially if he can beat a couple of these off the gate. (3) FREE WILLY HANOVER faces easier here and he should be heard from. (5) READY ANY TIME should be a pace threat here, at a minimum.
Race 9
(2) TRUMP THAT came within the shortest hair of registering a major upset last week. This assignment is easier; no excuses. (4) DRAGON TIME finished just behind the choice last time - somewhat victimized by the slow first 1/2 - and he looks like the main danger. (5) ALBERGO HANOVER comes off a vet scratch, but he looks next best here. (1) WEBMASTER HANOVER can take a slice off an inside following trip.
Race 10
(4) DIA MONDE comes off a lifetime-best score and while he faces tougher here, he may be up to it. (1) RENEGADE MAGIC should be closing stoutly late here on the class drop. (5) ODDS ON AMETHYST is dangerous too on the class drop. (3) WHISKEY TAX drops too, but at this point seems likely to take a smaller share. (6) YOURE MAJESTIC steps up off a sharp score to face much tougher. She could hit the bottom of one of the exotic rungs.
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