Mohawk: Monday 7/3 Analysis
Best Bet: CHARLIE IS A JOKER (8th)
Spot Play: ROCKN OPIUM (4th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,4,6,7/1,4/3,4,7/1,6/1,3 = $24
EARLY PICK 4: 1,6/1,3/4,7/1,4,5,8,9 = $40
LATE PICK 4: 1,4,5,8,9/4/5,7/2,3,5 = $30
MEET STATS: 164 - 492 / $925.80 BEST BETS: 21 - 48 / $79.60
SPOT PLAYS: 23 - 48 / $128.90
Race 1
(7) THE TIME TO WIN switches barns here off a decent effort in her Mohawk debut. Sharp improvement here would not be a surprise. (6) MACHING ME ZILLY went a long trip last time and hung in decently, considering. She should be a threat here. (4) DIAMONDS DANCE paced a solid back half in her maiden win at Kawartha. She has some upside and is improving. Toss her in the Pick 5. (2) THATS MIA BAD is a half-sister to the decent local filly Mia Oh My, who won her first two starts. There is probably more to her than meets the eye in the program.
Race 2
Trainer Coleman holds a strong hand here sending out (4) ALEXIS FAITH ($55K Lexington sale) and (1) PLAY THE BELL ($60K Harrisburg sale), both of whom look ready to roll. I'll side with the former based on her quicker qualifying time and final quarter burst. (3) RENDEZVOUS HANOVER has shown good late speed in both qualifiers and most of trainer Macintosh's babies are driven to only show speed at the end of those miles. She is in with an upset chance here. (7) KENDALL SEELSTER paced a 56 flat back half in her lone qualifying win. Consider using her in the Tri and Super here.
Race 3
(4) ELMO ROCKBOTTOM has improved in each of his last two starts racing out of town, now he gets the leading driver here. Roy may look to trip him out in the pocket behind likely early leader (7) MEGO MOSS, who will should be tough on the class drop here. Slight nod to the former. (3) TAURUS DU PARC's race two back over a fast Buffalo surface puts him in the picture vs. these; using. (6) AVUNCULAR is worth a look for the exotics dropping back into a claimer here.
Race 4
(6) ROCKN OPIUM came up against a very tough shipper last week and she also got shuffled mid-race which didn't help. She was a solid winner in this class three starts back when Roy drove and he returns here; top call. (1) MACH THE CUT won easier than it looks on paper last time and she should be the main danger here. (2) GRANNY PANTS showed some keen late interest last week and she merits exacta consideration this time. (5) BEACHES BE CRAZY raced well first-over last time and she is another that should make the ticket here.
Race 5
Classy veteran (1) ALEXIE MATTOSIE finally draws a decent post and faces a group that he should handle if he is put into the race early, which is likely. (3) COOL ROCK also gets post relief here and he should be closer turning for home, which makes him dangerous. (6) WINDSONG LIGHTNING closed well in a quick mile last week. He is in with an upset chance here. (8) BUGGER BRUISER ran out of racetrack on Thursday night in a good effort. He fits this class well if he goes and he should share.
Race 6
(4) DUNBAR HALL roared home last time, but his move was just a bit too late. He has some upside and can take these with a decent trip. (7) SOUTHWIND TESLA is the obvious one to beat coming off a narrow loss in a quick mile vs. similar. (3) MIAMI steps up off a sharp maiden win, but he is likely to find the top two very tough here. Toss him in Tri bets. (10) MYSTICAL MISSION hasn't missed the board so far this year and he is worth considering for exotic wagers at what should be a good price.
Race 7
(8) JEWELONTHEBEACH N was solid in her North American debut and she will likely be even sharper with that race under her belt; call to repeat. (4) WAY BETTOR deftly saved some ground early in the stretch last time then slid by the leader right on the line. Her excellent form should be respected, however and she is a threat here. (1) P L KAHLUAA shows a lifetime-best win in this class two starts back. She is hard to leave off Pick 4 tickets. (9) SHEWEARSTHEPANTS is another that is in solid form who should share here, but she may have a tough time getting the same kind of trip she got last week. Small share predicted for her.
Race 8
(4) CHARLIE IS A JOKER takes a big class plunge here, which is typically when he records most of his wins. He will likely try to take these down the road. (8) ROYAL CHARM makes her third start in this class after failing twice in a row at odds-on. She is likely to wake up with a better effort sometime soon, so toss her on Pick 4 tickets here. (5) GLENCOVE ZANI is worth a look off his June 20th qualifier, which was the fastest mile he has trotted in his life. (6) ST JAMES GATE may be cycling back to his best form now and he has an outside chance here, so keep an eye on his price.
Race 9
(5) LISVINNIE broke when trying to leave hard last week, when his best approach - at least recently - has been to float off the gate then drive on or take a tuck. He goes to the Cullen barn here and he could rebound at a much better price. (7) P L IDAHO blew his rivals away last week and came close to his life's mark doing it. He could take another here, but he hasn't held this kind of form for very long in the past, so beware taking a low price with this one. (8) NO BU's good late kick should get him a piece here. (1) RESISTANCE FUTILE is another that should take a smaller share that can be used underneath.
Race 10
(2) APHRO STAR was a winner the only time he tried this class three starts back. He can rebound here racing back where he fits. (3) SIX BEFORE SEVEN was very impressive circling the field in his first start out of the hot Puddy barn. He is a must-use for me here. (5) TOP DESIRE has come into his own racing in this class and he should be a top contender here, too. (6) ROCKIN RONNIE raced much better with McNair driving and he has the knack for waking horses up. He should be I the mix here. (1) OHFORPETESAKE will be there early, but he will be under the gun from the inside and likely only stick around for a small slice.
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