Mohawk: Monday 7/24 Analysis
Best Bet: SUMMER TRAVEL (9th)
Spot Play: SUDDEN PASSING (3rd)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 5,6,9,10/2/5/1,7/4,6,7 = $4.80
EARLY PICK 4: 1,7/4,6,7/1,6/1,3,8 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 1,3,8/2,4,6,9/5/3,5 = $24
MEET STATS: 207 - 637 / $1,144.70 BEST BETS: 27 - 63 / $99.20
SPOT PLAYS: 27 - 63 / $154.90
Race 1
(9) LUCYS MAN raced evenly in field that is likely better than this one. If Filion puts him into action early here, he has a decent shot and he should be a square price. (5) BLOOD MOON left, took a tuck then got room in time to beat easier to break his maiden. This isn't the toughest non-winners of two field; using. (10) JAYPORT BUDDY has raced well on the smaller tracks, only missing the board once. He is in with a chance here if he can work a trip out leaving from out there. (6) VESUVIO BI is 2 for 8 and fits okay here, but he has frequent gait issues; your call.
Race 2
(2) PERCY BLUECHIP paced an unbelievable debut mile at Georgian. I can't go against her off that mile but she could be 1/9. (3) LADY GRANDE closed a bit of ground on the choice late in a very good effort. She can complete the exacta here with a better start. (8) KENDALL SEELSTER was 2nd to the choice and she should hit the board again in this field. (7) PLAY THE BELL looks next best in a good field of rookie filly pacers.
Race 3
(5) SUDDEN PASSING worked first up in a very quick mile last time and she still hung on for 3rd. She looks best here and I'll single her expecting an aggressive McNair drive. (3) BIG THONG closed to win an OSS Gold dash on the same night the choice raced, but she also paced two seconds slower. I'll expect her to complete the exacta here. (2) OXFORD COMMA paced a solid effort on the rim in her debut but that was in Grassroots company; smaller share predicted here. (7) MACHNHOPE can also take a share racing from close range.
Race 4
(1) JEWELONTHEBEACH N was narrowly beaten last time by a game rival who thrives in close finishes. I'll look for her to bounce back here. (7) COLUMNIST turned a 0 for 37 skid into a 2 for 39 record in two starts and she is clearly a new mare making her 4th start for new connections here; using. (2) EVERY TIME's best recent race came with McNair driving and he returns here. She should make the ticket. (4) WAY BETTOR is capable of better than she showed in her last start. Consider her for exotic wagers.
Race 5
(6) HILL OF A COLT exploded to a new life mark last week and there is an excellent chance that he'll go off as 2nd choice here despite coming in off that sharp win. I'll give him the nod. (4) DIA MONDE will likely be over bet here after finishing 4th to Marion Marauder in the Graduate Final. He can obviously win, but offers no value in the win pool. (7) SETANTA has developed a powerful closing kick recently. He could split the top two here and boost the exacta payoff. (1) ROYAL CHARM is another that will be passing horses late to take a slice.
Race 6
(6) AMERICAN HUSTLE can beat this group if he deploys the same tactics he used on July 15th. (1) MACH DÉJÀ VU looks like the main threat and he can get away better moving inside. (7) SOUTHWIND DIESEL goes some long trips at times. Perhaps the short filed here will help him carve out a better journey. (5) MACH MESSIER was just behind the choice last time. He has a decent shot to make the ticket here and could even upset with the right trip.
Race 7
(1) PRETTY HOT takes a big class drop here and I would expect her to try to control things; top call. (8) NINETTE B improved sharply in her 2nd start out of a new barn and she should be a good price again here stepping up in class; using. (3) BIG TSUNAMI must be considered off the Moreau claim here. (6) TOPVILLE CHEETAH has a shot to make the ticket leaving from the middle of the gate.
Race 8
(4) YOURE MAJESTIC switched tactics last time and she produced a sharp closing kick. Don't be surprised if Macdonell tries the Brush and Crush this time. (9) LOOKSLIKEACHPNDALE fits on the class drop and he will likely be more forwardly-placed than usual. (2) APRIL ROSE steps up off a bottom-out-the-field type win. She can compete at this level, too. (6) CUE HALL stopped badly last time, but class relief should put him right there vs. these.
Race 9
(5) SUMMER TRAVEL was dominant in his debut and he could be any kind. Call to repeat at 1/5 or lower. (4) COURTLY CHOICE had some steering issues when 2nd to the choice in that race and he was set back for leaving the course. He has a good shot of completing a chalky exacta here. (3) DRAGON TIME has some upside but he would need to find at least two seconds here to challenge the choice. (8) TRUMP THAT has a good closing kick. Maybe he can pace by a few late for a slice here.
Race 10
(5) DAYLIGHT RUSH qualified faster on July 18th than most of these race and he gets to drop to the bottom conditioned level here/ He should be tough. (3) COOL ROCK is worth a look here making his second start in the class following a bout of sickness. Henry may fire him out of there this time to get better position early. (10) PANEDICTINE was making a threatening move on the far turn last time when he jumped it off. He could contend at a big price here. (4) DRACHAN HANOVER is racing better and he should get there soon; maybe tonight? (1) CARACCI HANOVER figures to take another smaller share in this field.
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