Mohawk: Monday 7/17 Analysis
Best Bet: KAMERAN HANOVER (8th)
Spot Play: FACE OF WAR (3rd)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1,5/2,3,8,9/6/2,3,4,7,8,9/1,3,8 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 3,7,9/1,3,8/2,5,7/1,8 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 1,8/5/2,4,6/1,2,4,6 = $24
MEET STATS: 189 - 595 / $1030.60 BEST BETS: 25 - 59 / $92.80
SPOT PLAYS: 25 - 59 / $137.30
Race 1
(1) JAN took a while to get into gear in her debut, but the $35K Harrisburg purchase showed some good late pace and she has an obvious upside. It's always tricky betting two-year-olds vs. elders, but she might be up to it here. (5) SHOW ME SOME MAGIC moves to the middle of the gate here and Jamieson - who had a test drive last week - sticks. Sharp improvement is likely from this filly. (4) AMULET SEELSTER showed a bit of talent last year racing in Grassroots company. This isn't the toughest spot to start the year. She's a contender vs. this group. (6) MACHING ME ZILLY can't seem to get there despite being in position to win several times. She will share here, but also likely run her record to 0 for 20.
Race 2
(8) ILLUSIONEESTA made two moves, trotted home in 28 2/5, yet still got beat in her debut. I'll stick with her here as she has lots of upside. (3) KADABRA QUEEN beat the choice off a good trip last week, but, she looms as a major contender here again. (2) JORDAN BLUE CHIP - bought for $70K at Harrisburg - is the first foal to race out of the half-sister to million dollar earner Laddie. She can make her presence felt at first asking. (9) SORCERESS SEELSTER was well-prepped for her winning debut in stakes company. She isn't out of this, but, intent and tactics will have a big say in the outcome here.
Race 3
(6) FACE OF WAR got hung out to dry last time from a worse post. Perhaps leading driver Roy will have more luck with him here dropping a class and leaving from a better starting slot. (5) ROCKIN RONNIE fits this class well and he is tough to leave off the Pick 5 ticket coming off a win vs. similar. (3) TOP DESIRE is another that fits this class well, but he is more likely to take a slice than win. (1) ROUGH TRADE is worth a look for the exotics shipping in with decent form.
Race 4
In a race where the 'All' button doesn't seem like a bad option, I will give the slightest of nods to (7) KATIES BEACH, who drops a level after taking major action at the windows and showing speed last week. Her 2 for 52 record the past two years notwithstanding, she could beat these with a decent trip. (9) DOUBLE T GRRR showed big early speed last time now gets Jamieson; using. (3) MISCHIEVIOUSGIRLS recent form isn't great, but, her trainer can pop with a big bomb that looks unlikely on paper; beware. (2) HEX took some play last week, then showed little until very late. She is another that needs a trip, but isn't impossible here.
Race 5
(8) MOTOWN JACKPOT has shown enough speed in the past to win this race and he gets several changes here: adds Lasix, moves back to a big track and gets Filion. I'll give him the nod. (3) LUCYS MAN moved first-over into a hot pace last time and he couldn't sustain his move. He should fare better here. (1) EURO GAP adds Lasix and almost won in this class two starts back. He should be heard from here. (6) MISTER MUSCLE was 4th the last two times he raced in this class. He can slide onto the ticket here, too.
Race 6
(7) STORMONT ROYALTY - who brings an 0 for 13 record into this race - may never find an easier spot to graduate on this circuit, if he can stay flat. (5) SHORT TERM MEMORY is well-prepared for his Mohawk debut with two solid tries at Georgian. He might be the one to beat here. (2) PERSUADED gets Roy for the second start straight and he showed decent late speed in Grassroots company at Clinton last time; using. (9) ENCHANTED MISSION rarely misses the ticket and he should take at least a small share in this field.
Race 7
(8) ROCKN OPIUM got little in the way of a breather last time and still just missed. He projects to get a decent trip on or near the lead here; another chance. (1) PARTY BEACH came with a big move around the turn then edged by the choice late. He is in with a big shot again here. (7) COLUMNIST finally broke his maiden in his second start racing out of a new barn. This assignment is tougher and a small share is likely for him. (6) FRANSCHOEK is another that rarely misses the board that should pick up some pieces here.
Race 8
(5) KAMERAN HANOVER comes off a sharp try where he finished fast, but he couldn't get to the winner, who finished just as strongly. He looks very tough in here. (10) IONIA has raced well in two straight for Henry and he will likely be a good price; consider for exotics. (7) MIAMI trots consistently fast final quarters and he should make the ticket here if he is close enough to the leaders at the 3/4 pole. (8) PROFOUND PATIENCE typically finishes on the fringes. She is a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 9
(4) EVERYONES WATCHING had her chances eliminated by a rival that stopped in front of her entering the turn last week, but she did finish okay after losing position and a lot of ground. She can bounce back here with that start under her belt. (6) SOMEMONEYSOMEWHERE switches to Moreau's barn adds Lasix and gets Roy. Dramatic improvement would not be surprising here. (2) NOW AND AGAIN was part of a quick early pace in her Mohawk debut then tired a bit late. She should go better here, too. (7) MACH THE CUT stopped off a tough trip last time. He will probably change tactics here and close late for a slice.
Race 10
(6) ASLAN has enough class and speed to take these and based on his two July qualifiers, it appears that he's ready to fire off the shelf; top call. (1) PANEDICTINE drops to the bottom here after showing some late life in his comeback race. Toss him on Pick 4 tickets. (4) CARACCI HANOVER is another class-dropper that will be forwardly-placed that you should consider here. (2) HES A SENSATION typically races well at this level and he will be the beneficiary late if there is any heated mid-race battling. (8) DRACHAN HANOVER raced a bit better last time when dropped to this class, but he had no real move of his own. A small share is probably his ceiling here.
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