Mohawk: Monday 7/10 Analysis
Best Bet: PHANTOM SEELSTER (1st)
Spot Play: MCKINNEY (4th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1/4,5,6,10/7,8/4/3,4,5,6,7 = $8
EARLY PICK 4: 4/3,4,5,6,7/3,5/1,8 = $20
LATE PICK 4: 1,8/3,5,8/3,5,7/1,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 179 - 544 / $985.70 BEST BETS: 23 - 553/ $87.20
SPOT PLAYS: 25 - 53 / $137.30
Race 1
(1) PHANTOM SEELSTER was held up until deep stretch last week, but when free he closed like a rocket on a very good winner. I'll single him here based on what I saw in that race. (7) NOTABADGAME showed nothing from the worst post last time, but that will help boost his odds here and he is an exotics factor. (5) AVALON HANOVER - an $8K Harrisburg buy - looks as though he may be a bargain and he goes for a trainer that can send one ready. Keep him in mind when making Tri and Super bets. (4) GIDEON SEELSTER - a $34K Forest City purchase - has shown good late speed in his two qualifiers. He can get in the mix here.
Race 2
(4) HUDSONS YA YA hung on well last time, considering the long trip she had. She stacks up well vs. these; top call. (10) DELCREST MAGICSTAR has already won from the 10 hole here three starts back in a Grassroots race. She looks like one of the better ones in here. (5) GISELE TREELANE drops out of OSS Gold company and she will be much closer here if she stays flat. (6) LITERALLY is another that has gait issues, but she also has some talent and she too should contend here if she stays trotting.
Race 3
(8) HOWMAC DANCER paced a back 1/2 of 53 2/5 in his debut. You'd have to think he will handle these if put into play early and he gets Roy this time; top call. (7) STOCK has shown potential in both of his qualifiers. He should be ready to contend right away here. (5) ON THE TAKE ships in for Hall of Fame trainer Macintosh off two even efforts at Grand River. Perhaps he'll like the bigger track better. (6) LETJIMMYTAKEOVER is the only winner in the field, but he may have to shave 10 seconds off to win this and that scenario is unlikely.
Race 4
(4) MCKINNEY left hard to make front then was shuffled out of contention racing against better last week. Notice he has beaten much better than these as recently as May 27th; no excuses here. (2) WINDSONG LIGHTNING is another that took a shuffle last week that could sit a good trip here, possibly in the choice's pocket. (5) VELOCITY DRIVEN is always a factor at these levels and he should take a slice again. (6) REEL can factor at this level and post 6 should be good for him here.
Race 5
(6) IONIA was driven aggressively by Henry last time and she stuck around despite being involved in some rapid early fractions. That was by far her fastest mile to date. She should be tough here, possibly at a decent price. (4) HILL YES got a clean line last week and closed quickly despite not threatening the winner. He should be right there vs. these if he stays trotting. (3) MYSTICAL MISSION couldn't stay with a strong winner that was taking a new life's mark last week, but that was a good effort and he gets post relief here. (7) PURE KEMP got the job done at a short price vs. weaker last week. She will likely finish on the fringes here.
Race 6
(5) WIND BLAST, bought for $67K at Harrisburg, is a 1/2-brother to $183K earner Windy Sport. He had some gait issues in his second qualifier over a wet track, but he should be prominent here if he stays pacing. (3) POKERFACE BLUECHIP raced well despite staying inside in his debut. That race should serve as a perfect tightener; using. (9) MASTER OF LOVE sports identical 27 4/5 kickers in his two qualifiers. This one may get sent by Henry; beware. (2) BIT OF LUCK can take another share racing near the front here.
Race 7
(8) PHIL DORLEANS - 1/2-brother to Duc Dorleans (37 wins, $667K, 1:48 4/5 S.) looks ready to roll off his second qualifier and he should get put into the race early; top call. (1) NORTHERN REBEL comes off an impressive score at Georgian. He's the one to beat. (5) MIDNIGHT MATT took a shuffle in his first race on the circuit, but he could improve here with that start under his belt. (7) LUCKY MICHAEL is a homebred that goes for top connections here. He is worth a look for the exotics.
Race 8
(5) NORTHERN STARLIGHT powered her way to an impressive first-over win last week while displaying high speed at the end of her mile. While this assignment looks a bit tougher, she could be up to it. (8) FRENCH MONI was an easy winner in his first start out of the Zeron barn and while he looks like the main threat to the choice, he will likely need a much faster final 1/4 to get the job done here. (3) NORTHERN MAJOR has raced better since he totally reversed his racing style and started closing from the back. He is in with an upset chance here. (6) ON FIRST figures to be part of the early pace and he should stick around for a share.
Race 9
(3) SHADOW MOON - bought for $60K at Harrisburg - looks well-prepped by Dr. Moore for his debut here; top call. (7) JM JACK OF HEARTS took a shuffle in his debut, but did finish with some pace. He can improve off that initial effort. (5) CHOCOLATE SWIRL is a full-brother to 4-time winner Bettys Bay. The homebred can close for a piece of this, judging by his final quarter times. (4) BLUE MOOSE is another that should be passing horses late.
Race 10
(1) EVERYONES WATCHING goes for a stable that seems to send everything ready at this meet and her 27 flat kicker in his July 4th qualifier sends a message that she is ready to roll. Notice also that she took a mark of 1:52 4/5 here last year as a two-year-old. That came in a Grand Circuit race. (7) FRANSCHOEK couldn't advance first up vs. a very strong winner last time, but she does rate highly here. (6) SNAPPY DRESSER rallied from far back to break her maiden last time. Respect the sharp late speed she has been producing. (5) SUNSET FILLY is worth a look for the bottom of exotic wagers coming off a brief break. (4) BRAVE NEW WORLD can share here if she is over her gait issues.
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