Mohawk: Monday 6/5 Analysis

Best Bet: REBELLIOUS (5th)

Spot Play: EAST END (2nd)

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 1,4,7 / 1,2,6 / 3,5,8 / 5,8 / 5,6 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 5,8 / 5,6 / 1,4,6,8 / 2,5,7 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 2,5,7 / 2,7 / 2,5,8 / 3,6,9 = $54

MEET STATS: 100 - 311 / $603.30 BEST BETS: 12 - 29 / $52.50

SPOT PLAYS: 11 - 29 / $60.70

Race 1

(4) JILONA trotted her own back 1/2 in 55 4/5 last week when camped at the back early. With that clean line out of the way, expect Henry to send her early, which is when she does her best. (1) POWERFUL MISSION finished ahead of the choice in the same race, and she too was looking for a clean line following a break. She can be much better here. (7) MAJESTIC KAT has been solid in both starts this year and the step up isn’t that great; using. (10) WESLYNN DANCER will likely be last early, but she can pass most of these to take a share.

Race 2

(1) EAST END was a winner last time he raced in this class when claimed. It’s likely a claim will be entered here, too, so expect an aggressive try. (2) E L WILD SPIRIT has excelled in his current barn and he has developed a lethal late kick; respect his chances here. (6) SIX BEFORE SEVEN goes for Moreau and Roy off the claim. That’s a combo that is tough to leave out. (3) ROCKIN RONNIE steps up off a perfect trip win but a smaller share is likely vs. this group.

Race 3

(3) HILL YES – a 1/2-brother to Mighty Nicky who won here Thursday night – may turn out to be a bargain as a $27K yearling buy. This is a good spot to debut and he looks live off his qualifiers. (8) KENDRAS COCO took a ton of early action last time and she was a definite “go” but the 10-hole and early exertion required were too much. She has the look of a contender here. (5) VICTORS MAGIC was test-driven by Vanderkemp in the May 26th qualifier and he is capable of popping with this kind; beware. (6) ALERT HANOVER can close for a slice here.

Race 4

(5) STELLENBOSCH closed some ground despite being on excess cover with the pace accelerating last week. This is an easier field and she should be right there vs. these. (8) ODDYSSEUS finished ahead of the choice in the same race and this filly showed more early speed. She should be prominent on the pace. (3) STYLE SNAPSHOT is another that comes out of the same race and she could win this with a trip, although based on her record, a smaller share seems likely. (6) SOUTHWIND ION disappointed at short odds last week – likely due to missing five weeks of action. She can improve here.

Race 5

(6) REBELLIOUS was tripped-out perfectly to win by Zeron last time when racing in this class. The way he won suggests that he doesn’t need a perfect trip to win; call to repeat. (5) FACE OF WAR seriously improved his speed when second to the choice and he was closer to some swift early splits. He could turn the tables here with a better trip. (8) RODEO SPORTS raced better last time but he was no match for an impressive winner. He should be a factor here. (9) UGOTTOBINITTOWINIT was disqualified last time when he put a hoof into a rival’s wheel. He figures to close for a minor award stepping up in class here.

Race 6

(6) I JASMIN closed and passed horses in a back 1/2 that was quicker than the opening one last week. Although she has been a long time between wins, this is the type that Roy can get across as he has shown several times at this meet; slight nod. (1) PAMPERED IN PINK gapped out a bit on the final turn last week in a sub-par performance for her. Perhaps Vanderkemp will keep her closer early this time. (4) DREAM MASSIVE comes off an OSS Gold win with more sires stakes upcoming no doubt. Don’t be shocked if he is raced conservatively here. (8) MOONSTAR MISSION raced well when best of the rest vs. a very tough winner is his season debut. Toss him on Pick 4 tickets.

Race 7

(5) BEAST MODE made a remarkable recovery after going off the course last week. He has a good chance to control the early pace here, which is where he does his best work. (2) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE paced an improved race last time from the 10-hole for driver Jamieson, who has been heating up of late; using. (7) REEL had little chance after a slow start when racing over a severely front-end biased track on Molson Pace night. He has upset possibilities here. (1) SURPRISE HANOVER failed as a big chalk last time; a smaller share seems likely for him in this spot.

Race 8

(7) EXPOSE YOURSELF faces much easier here and she could go off at a good price with a break showing and Wayne Henry driving; upset special. (2) HEAD TURNING JAG drops back into a class where he can show his best; using on late Pick 4 tickets. (6) MISTER MUSCLE also faces easier, but he gets a negative driver change, too. Your call. (10) MAGIC NIGHT has an outside chance here but will more likely be passing horses late to take a slice.

Race 9

(2) MR CENSI paced his own final 3/4 in 1:21 4/5 last week to fall just short. From a better post, Roy is sure to have him positioned much closer early; top call. (5) WAZZUP WAZZUP showed signs of life last time and now he gets to drop again. A win here by the veteran would be no surprise. (8) PAPARAZZI HANOVER could go a long way on the front on the class drop here. He’s another to consider for late Pick 4 bets. (3) PRINCE CLYDE has been taking shares regularly and that trend should continue here.

Race 10

In a very tricky race where Grassroots horses are racing in a class that doesn’t give them any points in the standings, I will take a stab on (9) SHEWEARSTHEPANTS, who could get a similar trip as she did last week. This should be a Pick 4 ‘spread’ race. (6) KLOOF STREET has upset possibilities coming off a solid return race. (3) DEPRIVED was nailed right on the line last time. She is in with a good shot. (2) ROSE RUN SAMANTHA may turn out to be the best of these, but she will likely excel when the owner/trainer lists a catch-driver. (1) P L KAHLUAA is another possibility for the win in a race full of them.