Mohawk: Monday 6/19 Analysis
Best Bet: LISVINNIE (9th)
Spot Play: MAGIC NIGHT (6th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 5/2,6/1,3,4,8/1,3,5/4,5 = $9.60
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,5/4,5/7/1,3,5,6 = $24
LATE PICK 4: 1,3,5,6/1,5,10/7/3,5,6 = $36
MEET STATS: 129 - 397 / $718.10 BEST BETS: 17 - 39 / $64.70
SPOT PLAYS: 18 - 39 / $100.90
Race 1
(5) PARTY BEACH comes off a sharp effort last week in which she produced by far her fastest final 1/4 yet. She may be overbet here off the final time of that mile; however, she does have a big shot. (7) BEACHES BE CRAZY also flashed home quickly last week, but she was too far out of it to get more than a small share. The short field helps her here. (2) ODYSSEUS was third behind the choice last week and she figures to share again off a similar trip. (3) FASHION WRITER's last race looks great at first glance being that she almost wired it from the 10-hole, but she did have the benefit of a 59 4/5 middle 1/2 and she still got soft late. A small share is likely for here this time.
Race 2
(2) DELCREST MAGICSTAR was a strong winner last week in a Grassroots race and she looks best here, the only concern being that this race does not have any Grassroots points assigned to it. (6) ITS HALLRIGHT got a bit of a lucky trip last week in that all but four horses broke or gapped out and she could wait as long as she wanted to start her move with no worry about getting pinned in. While she did look sharp taking a new life's mark, trip is sure to be different here and she could be over bet. (1) MRSTERY BEAR should show more early speed this time now that she got a clean line following a break in stride. She has upset possibilities. (3) ROSE RUN REANNA figures to stick around for a smaller share again.
Race 3
(4) PARKHILL NONSTOP raced much better last time, finishing 2nd to an unbeaten rival, as trainer/driver Hudon has him going in the right direction. He may be able to seal the deal this time. (3) VEYRON should be the main threat if he can stay flat. (1) MAC AND PAY shockingly showed nothing last time, but trainer Boyd can turn them around in a hurry. I will use him in the Pick 5. (8) ADDYCOR ROYAL out-trotted his 123/1 odds last time and he is worth a look here, especially if he is a big price.
Race 4
(3) LYONSPRINCESSRUBY has beaten a decent filly twice straight at Flamboro and she switches to driver Henry here. He has been hot and knows how to motivate a front-end type; top call. (5) MOMENT TO PONDER obliterated her previous lifetime mark last week and she is an obvious contender here with the sharp improvement she displayed then. (1) SUNSET FILLY couldn't chase down a sprinting leader last time, but the late speed she showed there stamps her as a contender here; using. (8) HOLD IT HANOVER is likely to close late here and fill one of the lower exotics rungs.
Race 5
(4) DREAMY FELLA was showing improvement before being claimed, then he took a new life's mark with a gritty win first time racing out of the Fellows barn; call to repeat. (5) SPORTS LIGHTNING also comes off a monster effort first time racing out of a new barn. This race will likely come down to those two. (1) SHADOW MARGEAUX has improved each start in this class. He should hit the board here. (2) B N BAD moves inside and he has a good chance to crack the exotics at a price here.
Race 6
(7) MAGIC NIGHT was game in defeat last time after doing all of the work on the front end. Roy sticks and he should be tough here from an improved post. (3) PARADISE IMAGE faces easier here and she should be heard from; consider. (1) NORTHERN MAJOR showed a new dimension last time, uncorking a furious late rally to get the job done. These are tougher, but he is worth a look off that mile. (5) SPEEDYCREST has missed four weeks and he is likely prepping for a sires stake here. Be wary of taking a short price if you like him.
Race 7
(5) VELOCITY DRIVEN won in a class higher than this on May 13th. This is a fairly easy spot for him; no excuses here. (6) BANK SHOT HANOVER has some sneaky good form in his last three starts and he should be put into play early vs. these; using. (3) HES A SENSATION qualifies as a contender off his June 12th effort, but he is typically trip dependent, so demand a square price. (1) CZAR SEELSTER was woken up by Roy last time and won racing tough first up despite having broken equipment. These are tougher, but it's hard to count Roy out with these types.
Race 8
(10) TRY TRY AGAIN has been outstanding so far in his brief career and he is best of this group, with the only concern being post; slight nod. (1) LMC MASS GEM is an obvious threat, but missing a month creates a big question mark as there are sires stakes coming up right around the corner. (5) HOLIDAY PROMISE came up with her best effort of the year so far last time, but she is likely still a bit behind the top two. (3) MORE THAN MAJESTIC goes for a cagey outfit that can pop with horses that sometimes appear a cut below others on paper. He is worth a look if he is a big price here.
Race 9
(7) LISVINNIE was such an easy winner in this class last week that he is a solid bet to repeat here as the chalk. (6) NEXT THING SMOKEN gets a better post for his aggressive style and he could take these a long way on the lead. (5) ER QUINN keeps Roy after being claimed; improvement is possible here. (8) PANEDICTINE will be passing horses late again to make the ticket.
Race 10
(6) BLISSFUL YEARS raced much better for McNair last time, now he gets to drop a level. I will give him a slight nod in this head-scratcher. (3) SUNNY BEACH DAY showed more zip last time and he is another that could be moving in the right direction at the right time. (5) SMALLTOWN TERROR adds Lasix in his third start for trainer Brealey and this is an easier class than the optional claimers; using. (7) MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP comes off two sharp front end wins and Drury will likely send him here. He should stick around for a slice. (4) P L IDAHO has excelled here in the past when sent to the front. Last week's effort could be a harbinger of better things to come.
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