Mohawk: Monday 5/8 Analysis
Best Bet: HURRICANE BEACH (6th)
Spot Play: SIERRA MADRE (2nd)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2,8,10/3,5,9/6,7/4,7,8/1,3,5 = $43.20
EARLY PICK 4: 4,7,8/1,3,5/7/1,2,3,5,6 = $45
LATE PICK 4: 1,2,3,5,6/4,7/2,5,7,8/1 = $40
MEET STATS: 47 - 130 / $292.50 BEST BETS: 6 - 13 / $33.30
SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 13 / $23.70
Race 1
(8) CHAPTER HEAVEN - a $42K Harrisburg buy - had some issues last year, but she looks ready for trainer/driver Zeron here; slight nod. (10) ONE OF THE FEW faced a steady diet of sires stakes company last year and he performed decently. He could overcome this post if the intent is there. (2) CARSON HILL - a $50K Lexington purchase - is another that could pop up with a good mile here. (1) NORTHEN MAJOR is likely to get sent by Henry here and the longer they leave him alone, the more dangerous he becomes.
Race 2
(3) SIERRA MADRE has paced two improved miles for driver Hensley, now he moves back into a conditioned field with no standouts. He will likely be a square price and he could get up late if he gets a decent trip. (5) LEAFS AND WINGS looks tempting with his 26 1/5 kicker from his qualifier staring you in the face, but he quite often encounters too much road trouble. He is capable, but be wary of taking too low of a price here. (7) IMSPORTY drops back to the bottom level following a solid effort last week; using. (10) PRINCE CLYDE fits here and he has enough gate speed to help overcome the outer post.
Race 3
(7) ODDS ON AMETHYST got a break last week with no Preferred being run. He is the one to beat again, with the only real threat seemingly coming from (6) MAJOR ATHENS, who has been surging lately. Slight nod to the former, but using both equally in the Pick 5. (2) EMOTICON HANOVER had a great year last year, culminating with a 2nd place finish in the Breeders Crown. This is a tough spot to make her 4-year-old debut, but she can hit the ticket. (5) CASH FOR GOLD has been holding his form well. He can close for a smaller share here stepping up in class.
Race 4
(4) WINDSONG NAPOLEON won an elimination of the Metro Stakes here last year. His April 28th qualifier suggests he is ready for action and if that's the case, he shouldn't be beaten in here. (8) BETTIM CHRIS was smartly-drive to win last week, but he did have a good late burst and a repeat here isn't out of the question if the choice falters. (7) MAKASI's late speed shown in his two qualifiers stamp him as a qualifier here. (2) DEO GALILEO showed enough speed at Freehold at the end of last season to make him an interesting prospect. He should be able to take a share here.
Race 5
(1) ST JAMES GATE has simply been too far back in each of his last two starts. Perhaps the move inside will help him beat a few of these to the first turn; slight nod. (5) HONOR ABOVE ALL has been facing much better recently. He should be heard from here on the class drop. (3) VICS ROYAL LADY has got her act together racing at Flamboro and she has won on this circuit before; using. (2) HARPER BLUE CHIP begins a quest to earn enough to become a millionaire here. I'll bet against as he is likely to take action, but he hasn't won a race in a long time.
Race 6
(7) HURRICANE BEACH paced a big qualifying mile over a very sloppy track now he picks up driver Roy; top call. (2) LAWRENCETOWN BEACH threw in a clunker last week but he is obviously capable if he brings his 'A' game. (9) CREEPIN couldn't get close to a strong winner late in the mile last week. He is likely to run into the same issue here. (4) AMERICAN SPORTSMAN is worth a look for the exotics off two strong qualifiers.
Race 7
(1) APRIL ROSE has been racing well vs. better, now she moves inside where she should be able to work out a good trip; top call. (2) WILD AND CRAZY GUY regained his from last week with a sharp win, now he steps back up, but he can threaten here. (5) ADVERSITY rates highly in this class coming off a sneaky-good mile vs. better. (6) KENNEL BUDDY is worth a look for the exotics considering the excellent form he brings with him from out of town.
Race 8
(7) ARSENAL SEELSTER - winner of the last year's Ontario Sires Stakes Gold Superfinal - looks ready to kick off his sophomore campaign with a win based on his April 28th qualifier. (4) MACHIN A TRICK, who was third to the choice in that Superfinal, also looks well-prepped in a field where either could win. (1) AMAZING PERCH fits well in this class. If there is one that might topple the two choices, it's him. (2) DREAMFAIR MESA got untracked last week vs. easier, but he is likely to take a minor share here.
Race 9
(8) RENEGADE MAGIC took a ton of support last week, but she was too far back and on too much cover to make any impact. Her price will inflate here and I'll stick with her. (7) WINDSONG MAGIC has been racing well at Yonkers and she fits here; using. (2) STORMONT KATE missed some time, but she could be dangerous if owner/trainer/driver Richardson sends her for the top leaving the gate. (5) BLENHEIM will contend here if he can stay flat as this is a low level for him.
Race 10
(1) BUGATTI paced home in 27 flat with in the slop on a track rated off by three seconds with Roy driving in his qualifier a week ago. That's good enough for me to put him on top here in this conditioned claimer. (7) FOUR CARD MAJOR continues to be around the money and his good tactical speed makes him atop contender here. (4) TRISUN is in great form and he comes off a solid win. He should be right there again. (5) HUGHGETTHECREDIT makes the Super ticket every week. It should be no different here. (10) VINCENT VAN GO is another that rarely misses the ticket. Toss him on Super and High-5 bets.
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