Mohawk: Monday 5/29 Analysis
Best Bet: STAN THE MAN (8th)
Spot Play: SOUTHWIND ION (2nd)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2,7,10/1,5,6/1,7,10/1/1,2,7 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 1/1,2,7/1,5,9,10/3,6,8 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 5/1,3,9/1,2,8,9/1,4,8,9 = $36
MEET STATS: 92 - 257 / $556.20 BEST BETS: 12 - 25 / $52.50
SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 25 / $55.70
Race 1
(2) PAMPERED IN PINK closed a good gap when 4th to a Hambletonian hopeful last week. These should be easier and she can take this if she lays a bit closer. (7) JANDERSON finished just ahead of the choice in that race and it is logical to expect improvement here. (10) WINTER SWEET FROST exits stakes company here and this is a field where she should be a top contender is she stays flat. (1) ON A SUNNY DAY showed some potential last year for high-profile connections, but he has his eye on bigger prizes and will likely need a start.
Race 2
(6) SOUTHWIND ION changed hands recently and although she has missed some time, she has some angles to like. Switching to a high percentage barn and adding Lasix could pay immediate dividends; slight nod. (5) DEPRIVED raced evenly on Thursday night, but closed in 27 4/5. If he blasts for a spot near the front, he could do here. (1) NORTHERN SWIFT had no chance last time with the trip he got. He could go much better here at a good price. (7) FADING SHADOW brings some good form in from London and picks up Hall of Famer Condren here. He can take a slice.
Race 3
(7) DANCER HALL was a sharp winner in his return to action, and although he meets a sharp, promising foe on the far outside, he should be up to this test based on what he has shown so far. (10) VERO AMORE BI qualified sharply last Monday and he is obviously talented, having won an OSS Gold dash in good time in only his second start last year. You must use him on Pick 5 tickets. (1) STENHOUSE HANOVER beat much easier with little effort last week, but the top two will be tough to get past here. (8) WESLYNN DANCER can roll up late for a small share if she stays flat.
Race 4
(1) ROSE RUN SAMANTHA paced a big mile when leaving from the far outside in her season debut. She looks best here and moves to the inside post, which has played a bit better this week. (9) WHITE DANCER has missed some time, but she fits here and trainer 'O Sullivan typically sends them ready; your call. (4) ROYAL POINT switched to a high percentage barn while shipping in. She has upset possibilities here.
Race 5
(1) PICKLED PREACHER rocketed off the gate in his debut and drove on to an impressive win. He is facing better here, but I'll give him the nod based on that sharp effort. (6) ABBEYDORNEY qualified well enough on the trainer change to make him a top contender here. (2) AMERICAN SPORTSMAN couldn't keep pace with s strong winner in a fast mile, but he fits here and goes on my multi-race tickets. (7) TREMENDOUS PLAY was one of few closing in Southwind General's big mile at Flamboro last Sunday; using in Tris and Supers.
Race 6
(5) TRY TRY AGAIN took a ton of action for his debut and he absolutely flew home to get the job done; call to repeat. (10) DUNBAR HALL was much better last time, but he may need a quicker final 1/4 here to keep the choice at bay. (1) SWEET OF MY HEART is much better than she has shown so far this year. She is likely to wake up dramatically at some point, but the question is when. (9) JILONA is capable of landing a share racing on or near the lead here.
Race 7
(8) TALBOT CHANEL finished quickly vs. better last time. Expect her to be used more aggressively here in this easier spot. (3) B FIFTEEN has finished decently in each start and she could be ready for a much better performance here in a spot she was likely pointing for; using. (6) ODYSSEUS was a sharp winner at London last week and she has some upside and gets a good post to work from here. She is another in with a good chance in a competitive field. (9) LOVES ANGEL needs to find more late speed to get her elusive second win. A minor share is likely for her this time.
Race 8
(5) STAN THE MAN gets a big driver switch here after an eventful journey in an amateur race last time. Look for Roy to send this gelding right down the road. (1) ELDORADO OF GOLD S is an in-and-outer who raced well last week, so perhaps he can pair up good races here now that it appears he has returned to form. (9) KAMIKAZE LINDY loves to finish third for some reason this season, so I will use him in that slot in exotic bets. (7) LEXUS ROCKY goes for Vanderkemp here and he has won with several of these types in the recent past.
Race 9
(3) MEABRACH should have a better chance here leaving from a better post. A mid-race brush to the front by McNair wouldn't surprise and that could be the winning move. (1) BADSTORMANYPORT cut big fractions and fell just short last time. He is a Pick 4 must-use here. (9) A F F BIGDADDY has been on fire in a similar class at London. He is worth a look here with the great form he brings to the big track. (2) TEA WITH MS can uncork a good rally when he is sound. Take a good look at him on the track if you are considering playing him.
Race 10
(2) TREASURES PEARL was flying late in her season debut, a race that should set her up perfectly for this Grassroots dash - and Roy sticks; top call. (8) BRAVE NEW WORLD unleashed an impressive rally to win at first asking at big odds. She could repeat here with a reasonable trip. (9) MISS MITTZIE BEE goes for four in a row shipping in here and leading Canadian dash winner McClure is hungry to get some Ontario Sires Stakes wins on his resume; using. (1) P L KAHLUAA is capable of better than she showed in her opener; consider her for exotic bets.
Race 11
(1) HEZA BIG DEALER was no match for a powerful winner in a Grassroots race at Flamboro last Sunday, but that was a much better effort and he fits well here; slight nod. (4) DREAM OF LUCK is another that had no chance vs. a dominant winner in a similar race, but he did pass some horses late when the pace accelerated. Toss him in the late Pick 4. (8) BEYOMBO went too fast, too soon last time. He could beat these with a better trip. (2) DUBIOUS CLAIM blew up the tote last week in a much-improved performance. He got a bit of a lucky trip then. I will play to beat him here. (9) DIAL THE BOSSMAN always takes money and never gets the job done. I will take a stand against him too this time.
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